The recent US tariffs on paper and pulp may trigger a zero-sum dynamic, with rising prices and costs pushing trade flows toward cheaper, lower-tariff partners like Canada and Brazil, according to Xinnan Li, senior analyst for Packaging and Logistics at RaboResearch. Rabobank’s Q3 2025 containerboard quarterly report, outlined the research department’s forecasts for containerboard demand, production, and linerboard prices.

• RaboResearch expects US tariffs on pulp and paper to reshape global trade, favoring lower-tariff partners like Canada and Brazil while disadvantaging European exporters.
• Containerboard demand is expected to recover modestly, with production rebounding and prices projected to rise by 2026–2027 as inventories stabilize and inflation pressures ease.
• Winners could include low-cost South American and Canadian producers, while European and Chinese suppliers face declining competitiveness and higher costs.