Housing Outlook: Is This a Recession … or Not?

By Phillip Perry
November 1, 2022
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

After a two-year period of frenetic activity spurred by low mortgage rates and rising home prices, the housing industry has its finger on the reset button. “I think we can confidently say we’re now in a housing recession,” says Robert Dietz, chief economist for the NAHB. As one indicator, Dietz points to the nine-month decline in single-family builder confidence. …Another important indicator is the rate of single-family housing starts… NAHB forecasts a 13% decline in 2022 and an 8% decline for 2023. …Residential building permits dropped by 15,594, or 10.1% in August 2022. Mortgage purchase applications for the week ending Sept. 9 declined by 28.7% year over year. …As the calendar turns a page, Simonsen suggests watching three indicators: Total housing inventory and divergence from normal levels… Percentage of homes on the market that take price reductions…. Median prices for newly listed homes in the second through fourth weeks in January. Once 2023 is over, the picture should brighten. 

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