Lumber prices are plunging. Blame record drop in US housing affordability and post-pandemic double bubble ‘hangover’

By Will Daniel
Fortune Magazine
June 30, 2024
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The twin-peaked lumber bubble of 2021 and 2022 is now nothing more than a memory. Spot lumber prices have plummeted 75% from their May 2021 record high to just $366 this week. …While the demand side of the lumber market is ailing, the supply side may be in an even worse position. …“It’s a classic bullwhip,” Jalbert noted. “The supply side [responds] in a like manner to demand, and by the time it comes to the market that demand picture is already changed—and in this case in a negative way.” …Jalbert also believes lumber prices will likely stagnate through year-end 2024, but in 2025, he argues things could turn around. Some sawmills will be forced to slow or shut down production due to depressed lumber prices in the second half of this year, lowering lumber supply—“the bullwhip in the opposite direction.”… “But that’s going to take time.”

Read More