Seven big predictions in US housing for 2023
By Jean Marie Layton
- Home sales will fall to their lowest level since 2011, with a slow recovery in the second half of the year. Redfin expects about 4.3 million home sales next year.
- Mortgage rates will decline, ending the year below 6%. Redfin expects 30-year fixed mortgage rates to gradually decline to around 5.8% by the end of the year.
- Median U.S. home-sale price to drop by roughly 4%.
- Midwest and Northeast will hold up best as overall market cools.
- Rents will fall, and many Gen Zers and young Millennials will continue renting indefinitely.
- Builders will continue to pull back on constructing new homes next year, with year-over-year declines of roughly 25% in building permits and housing starts continuing into 2023.
- Gen Zers will seek jobs and apartments in relatively affordable mid-tier cities.