Our top 6 predictions on what to expect in terms of the 2023 global forest industry.
- North American lumber prices and demand will drop. Slower housing demand, coupled with abundant lumber supply, will send lumber prices to the $350/MBF range.
- Stumpage prices will decline for logs in the US South and increase slightly in the PNW, while pulpwood will remain regionally strong.
- The Inflation Reduction Act will focus investments on renewables, but little will occur besides planning, studies, and the like.
- The pulp and paper industry will underestimate or even dismiss the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market in the US.
- US and European pulp markets will feel the effects of a recession, while Latin America will benefit. The lowest cost producer almost always wins!
- The death of forest carbon credits is coming. The world is coming around to the fact that carbon credits, of any kind, are just a license to pollute more. Second, the carbon is stored longer in the finished product.