Yesterday’s policy action marks the beginning of a series of rate decreases necessary to normalize interest rates and to rebalance monetary policy risks between inflation (risks decreasing) and concerns regarding the health of the labor market (risks rising). The FOMC reduced its top target rate by 50 basis points from 5.5% (where it has been for more than a year) to a “still restrictive” 5%. …In its statement, the FOMC noted: “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.” …The central bank is forecasting a slowing economy but no recession in the coming quarters, with GDP growth rates of 2% for 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate is expected to rise but average a nonetheless relatively low level of 4.4% in 2025.