US Economy Expected to Contract Further in 2023, as the Fed Appears Resolved to Tame Inflation

Fannie Mae
October 12, 2022
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The combination of high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and a slowing housing market is still projected to tip the economy into a modest recession in the first quarter of 2023, according to the October 2022 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 2.3 percent annualized in the third quarter of 2022 due to strong net export and inventory investment activity, before contracting 0.7 percent annualized in the fourth quarter as the effects of that activity wane. …The ESR Group forecasts negative 0.1 percent real GDP growth on a full-year basis for 2022, a slight downward revision from its prior month prediction of 0.0 percent, and it maintained its expectation for a 0.5 percent contraction in real GDP in 2023. …Futures markets expect FOMC to raise the federal funds rate by an additional 75 basis points at its November meeting.

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