US lumber production and consumption tick higher in January

By Paul Quinn, RBC Analyst
RBC Capital Markets
April 21, 2023
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Paul Quinn

The Western Wood Products Association (“WWPA”) released January 2023 softwood lumber stats.

North American softwood lumber production flat y/y in the U.S., down significantly in BC — According to the WWPA, U.S. production increased 14.1% m/m in January (flat y/y), driven by a 13.5% m/m increase in the U.S. South (+2.6% y/y), a 15.1% m/m increase in the U.S. West (-3.8% y/y), and a 14.1% m/m increase in other regions (flat y/y). In Canada, production was up 17.5% m/m (-12.7% y/y), due to a 13.1% m/m increase East of the Rockies (-0.7% y/y) and a 27.4% m/m increase in British Columbia (-29.9% y/y). In sum, North American production was down 4.7% y/y in January, with 223 mmfbm (or ~97%) of the 229 mmfbm y/y decrease driven by decreased production in British Columbia.

Operating rates remain challenged in Canada, particularly in BC — The U.S. operating rate was 80% in January, up 6 percentage points from 74% in December, but down 1 percentage point y/y. The operating rate in the U.S. South was up 7 percentage points m/m to 84% (up 1 percentage point y/y), while the U.S. West operating rate was up 6 percentage points m/m to 75% (down 3 percentage points y/y). The Canadian operating rate increased 7 percentage points m/m in January, but remained challenged at just 63%, which was down 9 percentage points y/y. The BC operating rate was up 9 percentage points m/m to 50% (down 21 percentage points y/y), and the East of the Rockies operating rate was up 6 percentage points m/m to 73% (flat y/y).

North American softwood lumber consumption spiked in January — U.S. softwood lumber consumption increased 6.2% y/y (+249 mmfbm), while Canadian consumption decreased 4.2% y/y (25 mmfbm), leaving overall North American consumption up 4.8% y/y (+224 mmfbm). U.S. consumption was up 12.8% m/m, while Canadian consumption was up 5.8% m/m.

U.S. softwood lumber imports were up 22.9% y/y on increased European volumes — Non-Canadian imports were up 133.4% y/y, primarily driven by a 188.3% (~288 mmfbm) increase from Europe. At 441 mmfbm in January, European imports comprised ~10% of U.S. softwood lumber consumption, compared to Canadian imports of 893 mmfbm comprising ~21%. U.S. imports of Canadian lumber in January were up 10.1% m/m, but down 2.6% y/y. Imports from British Columbia were up 6.0% m/m (-21.1% y/y) and imports from East of the Rockies were up 12.6% m/m (+12.6% y/y).

U.S. log exports were down somewhat y/y — U.S. softwood log exports were down 4.0% y/y and up 18.4% m/m in January. Exports to Japan were up 32.1% y/y, while exports to China (-26.4% y/y), Canada (-12.3% y/y) and other countries (i.e., excluding China, Japan, and Canada; -17.7%) were down.

Tolko cuts capacity in British Columbia — The company announced on April 17 that it would move both its Soda Creek and Armstrong Lumber operations to a single shift, impacting annual production by ~100 mmfbm at each location. Tolko expects the shift reduction to be permanent at Soda Creek, while it will evaluate operations at Armstrong Lumber on a regular basis. We expect further mill curtailments will occur in the province to align production with declining timber supply.

Channel inventories are lean, creating an opportunity for pricing to move higher — Our recent meetings with Interfor management and investors underlined that channel inventories of lumber remain lean.

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