WASHINGTON, DC – Existing home sales are now expected to rise only 4 percent next year from a 2024 pace that is on track for a nearly 30-year low, according to the November 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The downward revision to the existing home sales outlook, which was previously forecast to rise 11% in 2025, is the result of significant upward movement in mortgage rates and other long-duration bonds in recent weeks. Whereas previously the ESR Group had expected mortgage rates to dip below 6% in early 2025, the revised forecast now shows mortgage rates ending 2025 at 6.3% and remaining above 6% through 2026. The ESR Group does expect a significant improvement in existing home sales of around 17% in its inaugural 2026 forecast, as affordability conditions improve, the lock-in effect weakens, and pent-up demand to move materializes.