The final presenter at International Pulp Week, Emanuele Bona, VP of Europe for the Pulp and Paper Products Council (PPPC), provided a comprehensive update on global market pulp demand trends, with a particular focus on the rebound underway in 2025 and the longer-term outlook for key markets and product segments. Bona began by noting that 2024 had been a weak year for market pulp demand, with global chemical market pulp demand falling by 0.9 percent. However, the first months of 2025 showed a marked improvement. “In 2025, after four months, demand is up almost one million tonnes,” he reported. Both softwood and hardwood pulp segments contributed to this recovery.

In softwood pulp, the turnaround was particularly notable. “Rebound in softwood demand continued in early 2025,”Bona said. After a period of annual declines averaging minus two percent between 2019 and 2024, softwood demand was up 1.6 percent in the first four months of 2025. Much of this was driven by a “significant positive stock swing versus 2024,” Bona explained, while also noting that end-use markets were providing mild additional support. “ Capacity utilization also reflected in this rebound. “Softwood mills shipped at 95 percent of capacity in Q1,” Bona reported. This contributed to a reduction in global softwood stocks, though he noted that stocks remained within the normal range. 

Turning to hardwood pulp, the recovery was even more pronounced. “Hardwood demand up 5.4 percent year over year in Q1,” Bona said. Chinese hardwood demand was a major driver, rising 11 percent in the first three months of 2025. However, Bona emphasized that much of this reflected stock-building growing faster than consumption, which suggests buyers added to inventories. This stock-building dynamic suggests that some of the current strength in hardwood demand may prove temporary, with slower demand likely once inventories are replenished. In fact, he noted that “hardwood mill stocks have been rising since December.” Regionally, Bona pointed to divergent patterns. In North America, demand was expected to grow only moderately. In Western Europe, demand was projected to continue shrinking, with both softwood and hardwood markets under pressure. In China, the outlook remained relatively supportive, though longer-term growth was expected to slow. 

Bona also addressed key capacity developments. In contrast to softwood, hardwood capacity was projected to “expand significantly by 7.8 million tonnes,” due to major new projects in Brazil, China, and Southeast Asia. By contrast, the substantial wave of hardwood capacity additions will weigh on market balance, with potential impacts on pricing and trade flows. This divergence between softwood and hardwood trends was expected to shape market balance in the years ahead. Bona showed projections indicating that softwood utilization would remain relatively tight, averaging 91 percent from 2025 to 2029, while hardwood utilization would average a lower 85 percent. 

Bona closed with a look at key trade dynamics, noting that “US imports close to five million tonnes of pulp,” with heavy reliance on Canada and Latin America for supply. US exports were also substantial, at 4.5 million tonnes, with China, other Asia, and Western Europe as key destinations. He highlighted China’s limited exposure to US pulp overall, though “China is highly dependent on US for fluff imports,” particularly softwood fluff. In Western Europe, softwood demand remained largely met by domestic supply, but about 70 percent of fluff demand was met by US producers. Looking ahead, Bona projected that global market pulp demand would return to growth but at a more moderate pace. “Growth to average 1.5 percent through 2029,” he said. The long-term trend for softwood pulp was expected to remain flat at best, while hardwood demand growth was projected to slow despite ongoing substitution trends.