US lumber futures are back under pressure after a short-lived tariff-driven rally, and the reversal may be telling a broader story about the health of the housing market. Last month, futures spiked when the US announced a sharp increase in duties on Canadian softwood lumber. …What followed was a classic case of hoarding-induced overshoot: once the front-loading of demand ended, trading volumes thinned and prices quickly reversed. The first-month contract has now slumped 17.3% from its 1 August peak. …Uncertainty about how tariffs will be applied is keeping buyers cautious. At the same time, sticky to rising inflation continues to squeeze household budgets, while the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts remains unclear. …That makes lumber’s slump more than a quirk of tariff policy—it may be the canary in the coal mine. If prices continue to lag despite a tariff regime designed to support them, it would underscore just how fragile underlying building activity really is.