What 45% tariffs mean for B.C.’s forest sector

By Harry Nelson, Associate Professor
UBC News
October 29, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Harry Nelson

Tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber have climbed to 45%. …UBC faculty of forestry associate professor Harry Nelson says this escalation pushes BC’s forestry sector into uncharted territory, threatening not just sawmills but also pulp and secondary manufacturing. …Yes—tariffs this high, combined with the aftermath of fires and beetle outbreaks, are an existential threat. Canada has already paid the U.S. about $10 billion in lumber duties, and we’re unlikely to recover much of that this time. …Do you expect more mill curtailments and closures? It’s hard to imagine we won’t. Companies are weighing whether to curtail, temporarily close or shut down entirely. …The wild card is demand, which continues to fall. If it drops further, the pressure on producers will intensify. …The sawmill sector will be hit hard, but so will contractors and the pulp and paper sector. 

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