Canada’s lumber industry is heavily export-dependent. Roughly 65% of Canadian lumber production is sold abroad, and the US remains by far the largest customer, accounting for about 87% of exports in 2025 . This reliance leaves Canada highly exposed to US trade policy. …Canada’s lumber and forest sector is expected to continue contracting through 2030. Sawmill capacity will decline, particularly among smaller and older operations in regions affected by insects and fires, and export patterns will slowly rebalance away from the US. Rural communities will bear the greatest impacts. If US tariffs are eventually removed, the surviving modern mills could benefit from improved margins as lumber prices are likely to increase in the US. Meanwhile, opportunities exist in gradually growing overseas markets and in the domestic construction sector, where housing starts would need to roughly double by 2035 to meet projected demand.