The Bank of Canada’s latest survey of financial-market participants pointed to a modestly brighter growth outlook than the central bank’s own projections, even as trade tensions with the US remain the dominant threat hanging over Canada’s economy and housing market. In the fourth‑quarter Market Participants Survey, 93% of respondents cited an “increase in trade tensions” as the top downside risk to Canadian growth, well ahead of tighter global financial conditions and weaker consumer spending. Participants still assign a 20% probability to a recession over the next six months, but their median forecast calls for real GDP growth of 1.6% by the end of 2026 and 1.9% by late 2027, slightly stronger than the Bank’s own projections of 1.1% and 1.5%. While the survey suggests some stabilization in expectations, it underscores that tariff policy remains the key macroeconomic swing factor. …PwC Canada’s latest survey among 133 CEOs showed that only 27% expect the domestic economy to improve over the next 12 months.