Last week we attended the 2026 International Builders’ Show (IBS) in Orlando, FL, and, while there was much excitement among the ~110,000 attendees around new product launches and the use of AI in homebuilding, sentiment about the current state of the US housing market seemed rather cautious. …Regarding the upcoming spring building season, most of the contacts we spoke with felt it was still a month too early to tell if we will get a noteworthy lift in demand this year (the past three years have disappointed). However, a few lamented the fact that the Fed looks set to hold rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, and felt that a further 25bps cut would have helped boost the U.S. housing market heading into the spring. 

Seasonally adjusted US housing starts rebounded to 1.32MM in November (from a lowly 1.27MM in October) before rising to 1.40MM in December. For November, single-family starts came in at 942,000 and multis were at 380,000. Both rose in December, with singles nudging up to 981,000 while multis jumped to 423,000.  Looking at permitting data, results were mixed. Adjusted permits slipped to 1.39MM in November before rebounding to 1.45MM in December. Single-family permissions have been extremely stable, hovering between 850,000 and 900,000 over the past eight months (896,000 in November and 881,000 in December). 

November and December numbers may be subject to revision when the next round of data is released in March; however, for now, U.S. housing starts totalled 1.36MM in 2025, down from 1.37MM in 2024. For single-family homes, starts slipped from 1.01MM in 2024 to just 943,000 last year, while multifamily starts rebounded to 415,000 (up from 354,000 in 2024). Despite some signs of green shoots late in the year, new-home sales have followed a similar trend to starts, with full-year numbers down fractionally versus 2024. Adjusted new-home sales for December came in at 745,000, down 2% m/m but up 4% y/y. For the full year, 679,000 new homes were sold, versus 686,000 in 2024. 

While there may be some reasons for cautious optimism while looking at starts and new-home sales, existing-home sales disappointed in January, declining from a 12-month high of 4.27MM (adjusted) to just 3.91MM—their lowest level since September 2024.