Russian timber and cellulose exports have collapsed by 50% between 2021 and 2025, the steepest fall of any sector tracked by NATO-frontline intelligence across four years of Western sanctions, with the same Latvian assessment revealing that sanctions have cost Moscow more than US$130 billion as it scrambled to source banned goods between 2022 and 2025. That is according to a new analysis published in April by the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB), one of Latvia’s three security intelligence services, drawing on internal Russian institutional forecasts obtained through intelligence collection alongside SAB’s own assessment. Russia was the world’s largest softwood lumber exporter in 2021, ahead of its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. …According to the analysis, Russia paid an additional US$32.5 billion each year to acquire sanctioned Western goods through intermediaries at inflated prices, excluding cases where no substitute was available. 

• In related coverage: Russian forestry industry hit hard by sanctions and aging machinery