Two numbers describe President Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, and they point in opposite directions. 50% is the rate, imposed Monday under Section 338 of the Tariff Act. 2.5% is the effect. The Hub‘s reporting on the proclamations puts the affected goods at roughly 5.5% of Canadian exports now crossing the border duty-free. Weight the new duties by those trade flows and Canada’s average effective tariff rate rises by about 2.5 percentage points, pushing the blended rate toward 10%. The composition of the list reinforces the arithmetic. …Before this round, Canada faced the lowest overall tariff rate of any US trading partner—roughly 6% weighted by 2024 trade flows. Even after the duties take effect in mid-August, Canada remains among the least-tariffed economies selling into the American market. …At the level of the firm, the damage is real and concentrated. …At the level of the national economy, the needle barely moves. Both readings are true simultaneously.