The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 in July. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation weakened for a third consecutive month, while expectations remained subdued. The labour market component also weakened as fewer respondents described jobs as plentiful, suggesting that job security is becoming a greater concern for households. This weakening extends beyond the latest confidence survey. The employment-to-population ratio has fallen sharply this year, while the share of consumers saying jobs are hard to get remains elevated relative to recent lows. This helps explain why the unemployment rate may understate labour market softness. Participation has declined due to discouraged workers abandoning their job search, and unemployed workers who remain in the labour force are taking longer to find new employment. Beyond a steady unemployment rate, weakness in other indicators all point to a labour market that is losing momentum.
