
David Elstone
With NDP MLA David Eby taking over as the next premier of British Columbia, it’s an opportune time to baseline the state of BC’s forest industry. …Natural factors including the mountain pine beetle and spruce beetle epidemics, wildfires etc are taking their toll on timber supply. So too have policy changes introduced by the NDP government under the banner of Modernizing Forest Policy in BC, including the old growth deferral initiative. …The consequences of such are starting to appear. Given this made in BC recipe for gridlock, I had projected (almost a year ago) the future provincial timber harvest would decrease between 10% and 40% by the time of the next election in 2024. Almost a year later, the provincial harvest is down 5.3 million m3 or 12.6% ytd as of September..
What have been the downstream effects of the reduced timber harvest? Lumber production province wide is down 12.7% ytd (July). Coast production is down 6.8% ytd. And interior production is down by 13.5% ytd to levels not seen in many decades. Timber supply issues have been a large part of that decline, especially for the interior. Other contributing factors include the collapse in lumber prices as well as transportation issues. …The following is a list of manufacturing facilities which have either permanently closed or temporary curtailed since Q4 2021. …No other provinces are reporting closures to the same magnitude. Conversely, there is relatively little new capacity being added. This is where things are at for British Columbia’s forest sector, and it’s not good. Unfortunately, Eby has already said his 100- day plan includes a pledge to accelerate the old growth plan.