The U.S. Commerce Department today announced new preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber imports of 20%. …The duties won’t become final until August, when final determinations are expected to be made. …The new preliminary duties is just the first shot across the bow in what is expected to be a nasty trade war, with additional tariffs that may be layered on top of duties. …Anti-dumping and countervailing duties have been in place on Canadian softwood lumber at varying levels since 2017, following the expiration of the last softwood lumber agreement in 2015. The duties on Canadian softwood lumber have been effective in shrinking Canada’s market share… from about 35% in 2016, to about 24% as of the end of 2024.
…Duties are held by the U.S. Treasury, pending appeals through trade tribunals like the World Trade Organization. In total, Canadian forestry companies have paid a total of $10 billion in duties since 2017. Canada is currently appealing the duties through the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA). Tariffs, on the other hand, are border taxes. In principle, it’s the buyer – the importer – who has to pay the tax, which means American buyers will have to pay more for Canadian lumber. …In practice, however, exporters may have to eat some of those taxes in order to preserve market share. “They’re going to be able to pass on two-thirds of the tariff because supply and demand is going to be tight,” said Russ Taylor. “I think individual companies are going to do their own thing. I think some may actually go off the market, and wait and see what happens to the price. There’s always going to be some company out there that’s will to cut the price to get an order today and keep running.”
- Canadian Press, Ashley Joannou: U.S. plans to nearly triple anti-dumping duty on Canadian softwood as tariffs loom