Kevin Mason
In mid-April, the Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies (JCHS) released its Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity update, forecasting R&R growth ~+1.6% per quarter between now and Q1/26. This projected growth comes after a modest pullback in R&R spending in 2024 and will be welcomed by North American solid-wood producers given expected declines in demand from new residential construction in the coming quarters. …Recent pricing trends persisted in North American lumber markets over the past month, with S-P-F prices continuing lower while SYP prices moved higher. …A modest seasonal uptick in demand from treaters appears to be one of the catalysts creating SYP price improvement, while the pause on tariffs—the threat of which had previously boosted S-P-F prices—has now precipitated a drop in S-P-F lumber pricing.
As we’ve highlighted exhaustively over the past several months, duties on Canadian lumber exports to the US are scheduled to more than double later this year, and there is still potential for incremental lumber tariffs following a Section 232 investigation (there is the potential for tariffs to extend to panels, etc., but even producers don’t have any clarity). Barring an unlikely spike in lumber demand, many Canadian sawmills are likely to discover that the economics of selling lumber into the US no longer work (unless prices move substantially higher—but that will be driven by closures in Canada). …For Canadian producers, do alternative markets exist, or could a surge in Canadian homebuilding replace some of the lost volumes to the US? In short, there are no easily accessible markets that come close to the size of the US and that can be supplied by Canadian mills.
Professionals working in the lumber and sawmill sector and looking to advance their careers can gain specialized training through BCIT’s Associate Certificate in Industrial Wood Processing, starting June 2025. The IWP program was developed with industry subject matter experts and informed by industry leaders to support upskilling and professional development within the sector. The program is 1-year, delivered online and part-time to allow students to balance work and studies.
A meeting between the leaders of Canada and the US is not usually considered a high-stakes showdown, but here was newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney making his first visit to the Oval Office to see President Donald Trump, who has spent months musing about turning America’s northern neighbor into the 51st state. …The interaction offered a glimpse into how Trump has transformed Oval Office meetings from brief and bland encounters into precarious affairs. …His approach can be thrilling for supporters and destabilizing for diplomats accustomed to a more deliberative approach to international relations. … It appears that Carney struck the right balance, at least in Trump’s mind. An invitation to the Oval Office has long been the height of international prestige. …Now, they’re raucous episodes in a foreign policy reality show, starring Trump. While the president can be a gracious host, he openly complains about visitors’ countries.
A high-stakes meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and United States President Donald Trump on Tuesday is being closely watched by politicians in Victoria. Ravi Kahlon, minister of housing and municipal affairs, said the province is being pragmatic… “We’re not expecting an agreement, and we’re also realistic that any agreement made with President Trump can be changed with a tweet the next day,” Kahlon said Tuesday. …Kahlon says the key for B.C. is to rely on its resources and to increase diversified trade with other countries. …Adding that breaking down interprovincial trade barriers will also help. …Meanwhile, B.C.’s forestry minister, Ravi Parmar, says Carney needs to prioritize B.C’s softwood lumber industry during his talk with Trump. …Western Canadian director for the United Steelworkers, Scott Lunny, tells 1130 NewsRadio that if the goal for the Trump administration is to rewrite the free trade agreement, we should “quit the nonsense and get on with that.”
As the next step in its plan to protect Ontario workers in the face of tariffs and economic uncertainty, the provincial government is expanding its Skills Development Fund (SDF) by nearly $1 billion over the next three years, for a total of $2.5 billion. This funding will help train and reskill Ontario workers, including those directly impacted by layoffs resulting from tariffs and ensure they have the necessary support to find good-paying jobs and help strengthen Ontario’s economy. “We’re already seeing the impact of President Trump’s tariffs and the economic uncertainty he has created on Ontario workers,” said Premier Doug Ford. “Today’s announcement of a further $1 billion in SDF funding is just the latest step in our plan to protect Ontario by investing in workers and making sure they have the support they need to succeed, no matter what comes our way.”
Fresh trade data shows deepening US reliance on Canadian goods, even as the president claims the opposite. …According to the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US goods trade deficit with Canada widened to $4.9 billion in March, up sharply from prior months. The surge was driven by higher imports of Canadian-made cars, crude oil, and finished wood products — the exact categories Trump dismissed. Automotive imports rose by $2.6 billion, including a $2.1 billion spike in passenger vehicles, many of which are assembled in Canada. Oil and lumber purchases also increased, contributing to a 14% month-over-month jump in the broader US trade deficit, which hit a new monthly high of $140.5 billion in March. …The US typically runs a services surplus with Canada, and American firms rely heavily on Canadian supply chains in autos, energy, and materials, as the fresh BEA data suggests.
Uncertainty over international trade barriers has caused significant fluctuations in lumber prices in recent months, according to Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter. “The whipsaw fatigue of conflicting tariff announcements over two months had Western Canadian suppliers hoping to see the market settle down,” Kosman. …Some stakeholders held off on buying lumber altogether, while others ordered early in hopes of securing delivery ahead of any potential trade restrictions. “Others decidedly switched their purchasing to Southern Yellow Pine from SPF,” Kosman says. …Data from the WWPA indicates US sawmills were running at only 67% of full capacity in January, compared to 72% for the full-year 2024. In Canada, sawmill utilization was 74% of capacity, down just one percentage point compared to the previous year. …“At this time, there is significant lumber supply able to come back online at existing facilities should demand improve into the summer.”
Lumber futures fell below $550 per thousand board feet, hovering at yearly lows as excess supply from winter restocking collided added to a decline in demand. A 14.2% drop in U.S. single-family housing starts to an annualized 940,000 units in March, pushed new-home inventories to nearly eight months of supply. While a federal directive to raise timber production from public lands by 25% may ease constraints in the long term, the 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs has removed near-term urgency for buyers to cover import risks. At the same time, expectations of sharply higher anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber have prompted mills to hold back supply, further pressuring prices as domestic inventories accumulate and demand remains subdued despite the onset of the spring building season.
NEW YORK, NY — Mercer International reported first quarter 2025 Operating EBITDA of $47.1 million, a decrease from $63.6 million in the same quarter of 2024 and $99.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, net loss was $22.3 million compared to $16.7 million in the first quarter of 2024 and net income of $16.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, Chief Executive Officer, stated: “There was continued strength in pulp markets and an improving lumber pricing environment in the first quarter of 2025. However, our operating results in the quarter were negatively impacted by annual planned maintenance downtime at our Celgar mill and the impact of the weaker dollar against the euro.
MONTREAL — Stella-Jones announced financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $773 million, relatively unchanged from Q1 2024; Operating income of $143 million, including insurance settlement of $38 million; EBITDA of $179 million, or 23.2% margin; Acquisition post-quarter of a steel transmission structure manufacturer, aligned with strategy to support North American infrastructure. …Eric Vachon, President and Chief Executive Officer of Stella-Jones said “Though macroeconomic headwinds continue to impact volume growth, at this stage we remain confident in our ability to achieve our financial objectives. …“The Company entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Locwel., a leading manufacturer of lattice towers and steel poles for electrical transmission. This transaction marks a step forward in Stella-Jones’ long-term vision, allowing us to enhance our infrastructure offering and establish a presence in the growing steel transmission structure industry.”
Prime Minister Carney has pledged billions of dollars in financing for makers of prefabricated homes to help end the country’s housing shortage. Experts say the plan is visionary – and laden with risks. Mr. Carney has promised to provide $25-billion in loans and $1-billion in equity financing for companies that largely build homes in factories rather than on construction sites. The federal government will also place bulk orders of prefabricated housing to help jump-start a nascent industry. …It’s a big, bold bet that could make it faster, cheaper and more environmentally friendly to build a chunk of the 3.5 million homes that Canada needs to add by 2030. But factories need sustained demand, a large enough market and streamlined production. That’s what must weave out of the web of housing bureaucracy and hyperlocal rules that currently tangles up residential construction, the experts caution. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
This newsletter includes:
Forests are fundamental to Canadians. As “hewers of wood and drawers of water,” forests are as much a part of Canadian DNA as hockey sticks and maple syrup. …Canada harvests a relatively small portion – less than 0.5% – of its forests annually, adhering to sustainable practices. Every hectare harvested is carefully managed to ensure full regeneration, maintaining ecosystems and biodiversity while continuing to support the communities and livelihoods that depend on them. Harvesting takes years of meticulous planning. In fact, before a single tree is cut, forestry companies study and analyze the forest ecosystems before developing and presenting the government and the public with 100 to 200-year plans, repeating the process every ten years with improved information. [The Hill Times requires a subscription for full access to this story]
The May News & Views includes the following headlines: 
MONTREAL – Academics at McGill University in Montreal are providing the U.S. scientific community a platform to protect climate research under attack. Six months ago, researchers at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management launched the Sustainability Academic Network — SUSANHub.com — a database that centralizes climate research and data. “We initially created this platform to connect researchers and professionals in sustainable development and climate change,” said Juan Serpa, a professor at the Desautels Faculty of Management, describing the platform as a kind of “LinkedIn” for the field. But at a time when the administration of United States President Donald Trump is firing climate researchers, banning certain words from scientific articles, cutting funding for environmental research, threatening to withdraw financial support from universities, and deleting scientific reports from government websites, the McGill platform has taken on a different significance. “The goal is to protect scientific data against threats from the U.S. government,” Serpa said.
The Sustainable Biomass Program (SBP) has today announced the publication of two Interim Regional Risk Assessments (RRAs), covering British Columbia and Alberta Forests, Canada (available 
MOUNTAIN VIEW COUNTY, Alberta – Provincial officials elevated the wildfire danger rating to extreme across the Rocky Mountain House Forest Area Saturday after five new wildfires ignited in the area in recent days. Parts of Mountain View County are included in the forest area, namely west of Sundre and Bergen, covering Coal Camp and Bearberry west of Range Road 60 from Township Road 312 to the north boundary of the county. “The wildfire danger is now extreme in the Rocky Mountain House Forest Area,” the province said in its May 3 update for the forest protection area. “Dead and dry vegetation continues to be a major concern, as it is highly flammable and provides an easily available fuel source for wildfires.” …On Thursday, two wildfires were discovered in the Rocky Mountain House Forest Area while three more were discovered on Friday.