Donald Trump will stop short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office—plans to study trade policies with China, Canada and Mexico. In related news: the BC Business Council says tariffs will ‘expose’ rural resource jobs; and US economist Paul Krugman says Canada may be in a strong position if a trade war breaks out. In other Business news: the San Group asset sale faces headwinds; Procter & Gamble is accused of misleading consumers; Western Forest Products and Steelworkers have a new collective agreement; and Boise Cascade has a new COO—Jeff Strom.
In Forestry news: insights from Day 1 of the 80th annual Truck Loggers convention include panels on Options for BC Industry’s Future; solutions to Mitigate Wildfire Risk; and Political Insights from the Media. Meanwhile: Williams Lake First Nation chief says, ‘we need a seat at the table‘; South Carolina mill closures are impacting conservation goals; and mass timber makes headlines in Illinois; Los Angeles and Stockholm.
Finally, UBC professor Lori Daniels says Vancouver isn’t immune to a Los Angeles-like fire.
Kelly McCloskey, Tree Frog Editor
On Day 1 of the Truck Loggers Association 80th Annual Convention, Russ Taylor and Don Wright tackled the pressing question:
BC could face severe economic consequences from president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The province projects a cumulative economic loss of $69 billion over four years, with real GDP potentially declining by 0.6% annually in 2025 and 2026. The BC. Ministry of Finance, estimates significant job losses and revenue reductions during this period, with the unemployment rate possibly increasing to 6.7% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026. The tariff’s effects on the labor market could result in 124,000 job losses by 2028, with the most affected sectors being natural resources, manufacturing, transportation, and retail. Corporate profits could decrease annually by $3.6 billion to $6.1 billion. …Experts indicate that the tariffs could disrupt the US lumber supply chain. Rajan Parajuli, an NC State University professor, said that… US lumber producers might profit from higher prices, consumers would face increased costs if demand remains steady. The Peterson Institute for International Economics notes that these tariffs could extend beyond Canada, impacting the broader wood product sector.
VANCOUVER, BC – Western Forest Products announced that its hourly employees represented by United Steelworkers Local 1- 1937 have voted to ratify a new collective agreement. The new six-year collective agreement has a retroactive effective date of June 15, 2024, will expire June 14, 2030 and provides for the following general wage increases: Year 1 – 4%, Year 2 though Year 5 – 3%, and Year 6 – greater of 3% or the rate of inflation. The new agreement also includes enhancements to certain benefits and terms of mutual interest for the USW and the Company. …Western’s President and CEO Steven Hofer said: “We are pleased that our USW-represented team members have found it meets their interests and needs. …The BC forest sector is facing many challenges, and we look forward to working together with our union colleagues to build a brighter future for our company.”
Energy and forest products dominate the list of what B.C. ships across the U.S. border, as a Conservative MLA accused David Eby’s NDP government of leaving the province unprepared for tariffs threatened by incoming president Donald Trump. A new report from the Business Council of British Columbia underscores the importance of B.C.’s trading relation with the United States. It finds energy (mainly natural gas, some electricity) accounts for 27 per cent of all exports to the United States, closely followed by forestry and building material products (24 per cent). …Overall, 54 per cent of provincial exports go to the United States, which makes that country B.C.’s largest trading partner. …Workers in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction contribute $481,834 in GDP each; utilities sector workers $483,142 and forestry and logging workers $186,613 — “all significantly higher” than the provincial average of $126,209 per worker. “A decline in these jobs would significantly reduce provincial output and income,” the report said. 
Lumber prices remained above $590 per thousand board feet in January, hovering at eight-week highs as robust demand for building materials in the US compounded with dovish expectations for Federal Reserve policy. U.S. housing starts in December surged 15.8% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million units, the highest since February 2024 and well above market expectations of 1.32 million. Although building permits fell 0.7% to 1.483 million units, they exceeded forecasts of 1.46 million. At the same time, easing core inflation from the latest CPI report reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts by mid-year, while mortgage applications jumped 33.3%, marking the largest weekly increase since 2020, as buyers sought to lock in borrowing costs despite rates exceeding 7%. Additionally, U.S. buyers stockpiled inventory ahead of a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, while existing 14.4% duties further constrained supply. [END]
Lumber prices surged to around $580 per thousand board feet in January, marking a six-week high, as uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber imports to the U.S. stoked panic buying. The looming 25% tariff proposed by President-elect Trump has prompted U.S. buyers to rapidly secure inventories ahead of anticipated price hikes, further escalating demand. With Canadian lumber already subject to an average 14.4% import duty, the additional tariff is expected to push prices even higher. U.S. reliance on Canadian softwood lumber remains substantial, as Canada supplies a significant portion of the country’s lumber needs. While alternative suppliers, such as Germany and Sweden, may partially fill the gap, they lack the capacity to match Canada’s production in the long run. Meanwhile, domestic challenges, including workforce shortages and sawmill closures, are limiting U.S. production, contributing to ongoing supply constraints. [END]
New support for forest-sector manufacturers throughout the province will create and protect jobs, strengthen local economies and diversify the range of fibre sources used to manufacture high-value, made-in-B.C. forest products. “The BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund is partnering with forestry companies throughout the province to grow and stabilize their operations and get the most out of our fibre supply, while producing more made-in-B.C. engineered wood products,” said Diana Gibson, Minister of Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation. Through the BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund (BCMJF), the Government of B.C. is contributing as much as $5.1 million toward seven forest-sector capital projects and five planning projects in communities throughout the province. Cedarland Forest Products Ltd. in Maple Ridge will receive as much as $1.3 million… Gilbert Smith Forest Products in Barriere will receive as much as $1.1 million…
Rhonda Millikin, an award-winning ecologist who has questioned Whistler’s approach to wildfire mitigation, was issued a cease-and-desist letter last month from Forest Professionals British Columbia (FPBC), which said she is not certified to offer forestry advice. The FPBC said in its Dec. 14 letter that Millikin was unlawfully engaged in the reserved practice of professional forestry by providing advice and recommendations to the RMOW to limit or cease forest fuel-thinning efforts. “On principle, we don’t have an issue with people, whether a member of the public or someone from a different profession, researching or holding opinions or even talking about those opinions,” explained Casey Macaulay, the FPBC’s registrar and director of act compliance, who authored the cease-and-desist letter. “Where it’s an issue is when they start to advocate for a particular practice, and in this case, where that practice is so out of sync with the current science and the current practice of protecting communities from wildfires.”
The Coast Silviculture Committee is an ad hoc organization of forest professionals whose prime objective is to disseminate current technical forest management and silvicultural information to all forest practitioners and the public in coastal British Columbia. Its membership includes corporate, government, and self-employed professional foresters and forest technologist, forestry educators, forest land owners, researchers, and tenure managers. Every year the CSC holds two meetings; a short, one or two day, information meeting in winter, and a slightly longer field based technical workshop in early to mid- June; summer meetings are held in a different part of the coast each year. All of the surplus funds from workshops go towards supporting development of silvicultural expertise in students at the post-secondary level through providing of awards. The Winter 2025 workshop is scheduled for February 19 at Vancouver Island University. 
