Kevin Mason
As we begin to think about our 2026 forecasts, we (and the market) are challenged by the declining quality of information. Across geographies and sectors, both the quantity and quality of stats have been deteriorating over the past few years, reducing the market’s ability to understand the present context and the future outlook. …At the same time, the need for quality and timely stats is greater than ever. The full impact of seismic changes in global free and fair trade is still unfolding. Commercial pivots take time given pre-tariff inventory builds, contracts, and buyer familiarity and preference. …Producers also lack confidence, impacting the willingness to invest in (or close) assets that drive our supply/demand models. Finally, we worry about investor confidence, as assessing an appropriate risk-weighted return is much more difficult in the current environment.
As a result of the ongoing US government shutdown, much of the regular housing data (starts, permits, etc.) have not been published this month, meaning that we are flying blind, to an extent, in terms of US housing analysis. However, based upon recent solid-wood pricing trends and commentary from industry contacts, there is little to suggest that the US housing market has shown any improvement in the past few weeks. With a seasonally slower period for housing demand and homebuilding activity approaching very quickly, we are unlikely to see any marked improvement in US housing before next spring (at the earliest). …While the US housing market may see some minor tailwinds from improving affordability over the coming months, that boost to housing (and wood products) demand could be more than offset by the negative impacts of the ongoing government shutdown.
TORONTO – United Steelworkers union (USW) National Director Marty Warren issued the following statement on the federal Budget 2025: This budget recognizes something workers have been saying for years. Canada needs to build more at home and expand its industrial capacity. The commitments on Buy-Canadian procurement, industrial strategy and trade enforcement are important steps forward and reflect priorities Steelworkers have been advocating for across the country. There are meaningful investments in steel, forestry, critical minerals and manufacturing – sectors that support thousands of good union jobs and anchor regional economies and communities. We welcome tools that can help stabilize supply chains and strengthen domestic production. …Buy-Canadian rules must be enforced, industrial dollars must translate into real jobs and production on the ground, and forestry and industrial communities need long-term certainty, not temporary relief. We see steps in the right direction. Now it’s about follow-through.
On August 5, 2025, 
Forest Products Association of Canada put forward 19 practical recommendations for Budget 2025 focusing on three areas where immediate federal action can make a tangible difference: Smarter regulation to improve competitiveness; Clear signals to improve investment confidence; and Stronger trade and market access measures to protect Canadian jobs. …Hundreds of rural and northern communities depend on a strong forest sector. The Government of Canada’s $1.25 billion softwood package is welcome support for the immediate term, but finding a path to a more certain trading arrangement with the United States remains the Canadian forest sector’s top priority. …The inclusion of Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) for biomass projects in Budget 2025 is a welcome, long-overdue step for Canada’s forest sector. …With the right tax measures in place, these projects can modernize mill operations, sustain and grow jobs in rural and northern communities, and strengthen Canada’s position as a secure producer of renewable energy.
Campbell River, BC — La-kwa sa muqw Forestry Limited Partnership (LKSM) is ready to sit down at the bargaining table with the USW at any time, and has been ready throughout this strike, which it has made clear many times to the USW. However the USW has repeatedly refused to do so, as recently as October 24. Despite repeated invitations from LKSM, the USW has also declined both meaningful negotiations and mediation to assist the bargaining process, unnecessarily prolonging this months-long strike. “LKSM’s First Nations shareholders are dismayed and extremely frustrated by the provincial government’s failure to help both parties to make progress through the appointment of a mediator, especially given the hardships the forestry industry is facing right now,” says Nanwakolas Council President Dallas Smith. “Mediation is an opportunity to bring the parties together …and yet BC still has failed to appoint a mediator after all this time.”
Politicians from BC and Ottawa met in Vancouver Monday for a forestry summit, where they agreed to create a working group on supporting the industry in the face of ever-increasing U.S. fees and tariffs. …Speaking after the forestry summit on Monday, he said the federal government’s commitment to a working group with the province felt “very heartening.” Kim Haakstad, the president of the B.C. Council of Forest Industries, said in a statement that the group is pleased the governments are working together to keep people working — even when markets are challenging. Haakstad said the working group should also include the industry to help focus on keeping mills open, which means prioritizing a new softwood lumber deal and accelerating the rollout of the $1.2 billion from federal government.
Following today’s BC Forestry Summit, the TLA was pleased to hear the encouraging remarks from Premier Eby and the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, Federal Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, Infrastructure and Communities. Their commitment to … addressing softwood lumber tariffs is an important step toward ensuring the long-term stability and competitiveness of Canada’s forest sector. As the backbone of most BC communities, the TLA appreciates today’s much needed recognition that forestry remains critical to both BC and Canada’s economies. The TLA emphasizes the importance of ensuring that a portion of the federal government’s $700 million in funding directly supports forestry’s timber harvesting contractors. …this support can strengthen a sustainable and more certain forest industry. BC was once the lowest cost lumber producer in North America and is now amongst the highest… There is an urgent need to improve certainty by diversifying markets, enhancing access to fibre, and reducing costs to ensure the industry’s long-term viability and global competitiveness.
BURNABY, BC — Interfor reported its Q3, 2025 results. The company recorded a net loss of $215.8 million compared to net earnings of $11.1 million in Q2’25 and a net loss of $105.7 million in Q3’24. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $183.8 million on sales of $689.3 million in Q3’25 versus Adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million on sales of $780.5 million in Q2’25 and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $22.0 million on sales of $692.7 million in Q3’24. Lumber production of 912 million board feet was down 23 million board feet versus the preceding quarter. This decline largely reflects the Company’s announcement on September 4, 2025, to temporarily curtail production. …Weak lumber market conditions were reflected in Interfor’s average selling price of $618 per mfbm, down $66 per mfbm versus Q2’25. …Interfor’s strategy of maintaining a diversified portfolio of operations in multiple regions allows the Company to both reduce risk and maximize returns on capital over the business cycle.
NEW YORK — Mercer International reported third quarter 2025 Operating EBITDA of negative $28.1 million, a decrease from positive $50.5 million in the same quarter of 2024 and negative $20.9 million in the second quarter of 2025. In the third quarter of 2025, net loss was $80.8 million compared to $17.6 million in the same quarter of 2024 and $86.1 million in the second quarter of 2025. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “In the third quarter of 2025, persistent global economic and trade uncertainties, fiber scarcity in Germany as well as the impact of pulp substitution accelerated the decline in pulp market demand and pricing, which negatively impacted our operating results and contributed to a $20.4 million non-cash inventory impairment charge in the quarter.
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its third quarter of 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $208 million and a net loss of $172 million. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, stated: “The ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty, in conjunction with punitive US softwood lumber duties, led to persistently weak market conditions and subdued demand across all of our operating regions during the third quarter of 2025. …For the lumber segment, the operating loss was $182.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter’s operating loss of $229.2 million. …For the 
Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.
Vancouver, BC — Western Forest Products Inc. reported Adjusted EBITDA of negative $65.9 million in the third quarter of 2025, which included a non-cash export duty expense of $59.5 million related to the determination of final duty rates from the sixth Administrative Review. In comparison, the Company reported Adjusted EBITDA of negative $10.7 million in the third quarter of 2024, which included a $1.0 million export duty recovery related to the determination of final duty rates from the fifth AR, and Adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million in the second quarter of 2025. Net loss was $61.3 million in the third quarter of 2025, as compared to a net loss of $19.6 million in the third quarter of 2024, and net loss of $17.4 million in the second quarter of 2025.
MONTREAL, Quebec – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $958 million, up 5% from Q3 2024; Operating income of $135 million, up 4% from Q3 2024; EBITDA of $171 million, or 17.8% margin, up 6% from Q3 2024; and Net Income of $88 million, up 10% from Q3, 2024. …“Stella-Jones achieved another solid performance in the third quarter, supported by volume improvements, robust margins, improved cash flow and a strong balance sheet,” said Eric Vachon, CEO. …The increase in pressure-treated wood sales resulted from an increase in utility poles and industrial products volumes and higher pricing for railway ties and residential lumber. This was partially offset by lower pricing for utility poles. Logs and lumber sales decreased by $14 million or 47%, mainly driven by lower logs activity.
A technique used for the long-term preservation of human and animal remains is now being tested on Western red cedar. Plastination, originally designed to embalm the dead, is now being used to improve the functionality and durability of advanced composite materials. A team from UBC Okanagan’s School of Engineering has been experimenting with the technique and published a study that examined the 
The Liberal government is dropping its goal to plant two billion trees by 2031 as part of Tuesday’s budget, according to sources familiar with the matter. The government currently has contracts that they intend to fulfil to plant one billion trees, one source said. The news was first reported by the Globe and Mail. Prime Minister Mark Carney said last month that the budget will include a “climate competitiveness strategy.” But this is another key Trudeau-era climate policy that Carney has dropped since becoming leader, after ending the consumer carbon tax and pushing back the electric-vehicle sales mandate. …The government has struggled to keep up with the commitment, missing its annual planting targets in the past two years. Over 228 million trees have been planted so far, according to Natural Resources Canada’s latest update — leaving more than 1.7 billion in order to reach the target by 2030-31.
The steep flanks of Tsitika Mountain on northern Vancouver Island are scarred with clearcuts and slash piles almost to the boundary of the Tsitika Mountain and Robson Bight ecological reserves. High above the Tsitika River, 34 hectares of towering conifers, cliffs, and waterfalls are on the auction block. The parcel, labelled TA 1375 by BC Timber Sales, was recommended for deferral by BC’s advisory panel. That would have suspended logging, possibly permanently. Instead, BCTS is putting TA 1375 up for sale. …The steep and rugged terrain is a challenge for prospective loggers, but they face plenty of other obstacles. …Independent researchers at Tsitika Mountain made a surprising discovery this year: a Pacific Wild program recorded over 300 marbled murrelets flying through the area in one month.
NANAIMO, BC: Following Vancouver Island’s devastating wildfire season, Mosaic is focusing on ways it can help reduce the chances of fires starting or limit their damage. Mosaic responded to 34 wildfires in 2025—a 19% increase over the previous year’s 26 fires. This year, all five of the most significant blazes were human-caused. The first concerning fire ignited near Campbell River in early May, making 2025 one of the earliest wildfire starts for the company. The Mount Underwood wildfire near Port Alberni burned almost 2,400 hectares of Mosaic lands—roughly the size of the city of Duncan—destroying new forests and conserved old growth while causing community evacuations and road closures. Throughout the season, Mosaic’s fire crews worked with BC Wildfire Service, contractors, First Nations and emergency responders to protect communities and forests. 
Local governments are frustrated after receiving a long-awaited answer to when legislative changes are coming to the law governing how some forest lands are managed in B.C. The answer: with the trade war targeting B.C. lumber, the priority is protecting forestry jobs. …The 2003 Private Managed Forest Land (PMFL) Act puts no limit on the volume of timber that can be harvested, contrary to logging on Crown land. It’s administered by the Private Managed Forest Council, two of the five members of which have active vested interest in PMFLs. …The ministry maintains modernization to the act is being considered. In July… CBC reported the ministry is “working to modernize the act following the 2019 review.” When asked what changed between July and August, the ministry repeated it “continues to work with the Private Forest Landowners Association and the Managed Forest Council to modernize the Private Managed Forest Land Program.”
The Ministry of Natural Resources says nearly 6,000 square kilometres burned in Ontario this wildfire season, much more than last year and well above the province’s 10-year average. The ministry says 643 wildfires were recorded between April and October, with 597,654 hectares — or just over 5,976 square kilometres — burned. The province says 480 fires burned nearly 900 square kilometres in 2024, and the 10-year average for Ontario is 712 fires and about 2,100 square kilometres burned. Figures released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre in August showed that Canada’s 2025 wildfire season was the second-worst on record. Those figures suggested the fires tore through 72,000 square kilometres, an area roughly the size of New Brunswick. Scientists say that climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has made Canada’s fire seasons longer and more intense.
TORONTO — As the 2025 fire season ends, Ontario’s fire crews, aviation services and support staff responded to 643 fires between April and October with 597,654 hectares burned. While the 2025 fire season began with an early active start, the coordinated efforts of frontline staff, municipalities, Indigenous communities and firefighting crews ensured a rapid response to protect people and communities from wildland fires. …With the rest of Canada also experiencing a demanding fire season, Ontario extended support to our partners, with over 400 fire personnel and six aircraft supporting firefighting in British Columbia, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, as well as south of the border in Minnesota. As this year’s fire season ends, Ontario is now turning its focus to ensuring provincial fire crews are ready to respond next fire season. …The 2026 fire season will begin on April 1, 2026.