Kelly McCloskey
Every so often, a technical story reveals a simple truth—showing how easily numbers, once baked into the system, can become policy. A recent essay by analyst Alice Palmer… shows how the US Department of Commerce’s anti-dumping calculations turn fair trade into a numerical fiction—and why, even as markets shift, the duties stay high. …Palmer’s finding naturally raises a broader question: if one methodological choice can create a margin from nothing, are other elements in the system doing similar work? …Tree Frog reached out to Palmer and looked further into how the duty calculations are made—first, anti-dumping, then countervailing duties and finally timing. Taken together, the analysis points to a consistent pattern: much of the duty burden reflects method and timing rather than market reality. …If the anti-dumping and countervailing duties were recalculated using complete data (no zeroing), domestic benchmarks (no non-comparable price substitution), and up-to-date prices (no cycle lag), their combined rate—now roughly 35%—could fall to minimal levels.
In the wider context, the methodological issues described here are not just statistical—they reflect a system without an effective referee. The WTO Appellate Body remains dormant after the US blocked new appointments, and the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement (known in Canada as CUSMA and in the United States as USMCA) offers no practical remedy. The usual checks on bias have eroded, leaving little recourse for affected industries. Political-risk analyst Robert McKellar argues that this represents “a structural vulnerability: when the rules are written by the same players who benefit from them.” Just recently, the US Lumber Coalition reinforced that trend, urging that any USMCA extension be conditioned on eliminating the Chapter 10 binational panel review process—a move that would effectively eliminate external oversight of US trade-remedy decisions. …As McKellar noted, this tension between political power and economic logic typifies today’s protectionist era—a system where duties reflect not only distorted math but also the absence of a functioning arbiter to restore balance.
OTTAWA, ON – Canadian Forest Owners (CFO) appeared before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Natural Resources today as part of its study on the forest industry, which is being severely affected by the ongoing softwood lumber dispute. Andrew de Vries, Chief Executive Officer of CFO, and Vincent Miville, Vice-Chair of CFO and Executive Director of the Quebec Federation of Forest Producers, presented recommendations aimed at better recognizing the strategic role of forest owners and the importance of private forests in Canada. CFO represents 480,000 forest owners who collectively own about 10% of Canada’s forested land, but account for 20% of the country’s timber production. These owners supply wood to the forest industry, contribute to regional economies, and provide essential environmental services to rural communities. “The lack of understanding of private forests is a blind spot in Canada’s forest and trade policy, and as a result, support programs for the sector often overlook their essential contribution,” said de Vries.
The softwood timber tariffs levied by the U.S. have begun to hit the lumber industry hard. Citing a drooping softwood lumber demand, compounded by higher duties and additional tariffs that have reached 45 per cent for U.S. markets, West Fraser Timber announced Thursday its plans to permanently shutter both its Augusta, Ga., and 100 Mile House lumber mills by the end of 2025. Approximately 165 employees at the 100 Mile House mill will be laid off, as the company says it can’t secure an adequate volume of economically viable timber. The closing of the mill drops West Fraser’s capacity by 160 million board feet. …The closure of the Augusta lumber mill is a result of challenging lumber demand, and the loss of economically viable residual outlets, which combined has compromised the mill’s long-term viability. Around 130 employees will be laid off there, and further reduce West Fraser’s capacity by 140 million board feet.
TORONTO – United Steelworkers union (USW) National Director Marty Warren issued the following statement on the federal Budget 2025: This budget recognizes something workers have been saying for years. Canada needs to build more at home and expand its industrial capacity. The commitments on Buy-Canadian procurement, industrial strategy and trade enforcement are important steps forward and reflect priorities Steelworkers have been advocating for across the country. There are meaningful investments in steel, forestry, critical minerals and manufacturing – sectors that support thousands of good union jobs and anchor regional economies and communities. We welcome tools that can help stabilize supply chains and strengthen domestic production. …Buy-Canadian rules must be enforced, industrial dollars must translate into real jobs and production on the ground, and forestry and industrial communities need long-term certainty, not temporary relief. We see steps in the right direction. Now it’s about follow-through.
On August 5, 2025, 
Forest Products Association of Canada put forward 19 practical recommendations for Budget 2025 focusing on three areas where immediate federal action can make a tangible difference: Smarter regulation to improve competitiveness; Clear signals to improve investment confidence; and Stronger trade and market access measures to protect Canadian jobs. …Hundreds of rural and northern communities depend on a strong forest sector. The Government of Canada’s $1.25 billion softwood package is welcome support for the immediate term, but finding a path to a more certain trading arrangement with the United States remains the Canadian forest sector’s top priority. …The inclusion of Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) for biomass projects in Budget 2025 is a welcome, long-overdue step for Canada’s forest sector. …With the right tax measures in place, these projects can modernize mill operations, sustain and grow jobs in rural and northern communities, and strengthen Canada’s position as a secure producer of renewable energy.
Campbell River, BC — La-kwa sa muqw Forestry Limited Partnership (LKSM) is ready to sit down at the bargaining table with the USW at any time, and has been ready throughout this strike, which it has made clear many times to the USW. However the USW has repeatedly refused to do so, as recently as October 24. Despite repeated invitations from LKSM, the USW has also declined both meaningful negotiations and mediation to assist the bargaining process, unnecessarily prolonging this months-long strike. “LKSM’s First Nations shareholders are dismayed and extremely frustrated by the provincial government’s failure to help both parties to make progress through the appointment of a mediator, especially given the hardships the forestry industry is facing right now,” says Nanwakolas Council President Dallas Smith. “Mediation is an opportunity to bring the parties together …and yet BC still has failed to appoint a mediator after all this time.”
Politicians from BC and Ottawa met in Vancouver Monday for a forestry summit, where they agreed to create a working group on supporting the industry in the face of ever-increasing U.S. fees and tariffs. …Speaking after the forestry summit on Monday, he said the federal government’s commitment to a working group with the province felt “very heartening.” Kim Haakstad, the president of the B.C. Council of Forest Industries, said in a statement that the group is pleased the governments are working together to keep people working — even when markets are challenging. Haakstad said the working group should also include the industry to help focus on keeping mills open, which means prioritizing a new softwood lumber deal and accelerating the rollout of the $1.2 billion from federal government.
BURNABY, BC — Interfor reported its Q3, 2025 results. The company recorded a net loss of $215.8 million compared to net earnings of $11.1 million in Q2’25 and a net loss of $105.7 million in Q3’24. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $183.8 million on sales of $689.3 million in Q3’25 versus Adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million on sales of $780.5 million in Q2’25 and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $22.0 million on sales of $692.7 million in Q3’24. Lumber production of 912 million board feet was down 23 million board feet versus the preceding quarter. This decline largely reflects the Company’s announcement on September 4, 2025, to temporarily curtail production. …Weak lumber market conditions were reflected in Interfor’s average selling price of $618 per mfbm, down $66 per mfbm versus Q2’25. …Interfor’s strategy of maintaining a diversified portfolio of operations in multiple regions allows the Company to both reduce risk and maximize returns on capital over the business cycle.
NEW YORK — Mercer International reported third quarter 2025 Operating EBITDA of negative $28.1 million, a decrease from positive $50.5 million in the same quarter of 2024 and negative $20.9 million in the second quarter of 2025. In the third quarter of 2025, net loss was $80.8 million compared to $17.6 million in the same quarter of 2024 and $86.1 million in the second quarter of 2025. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “In the third quarter of 2025, persistent global economic and trade uncertainties, fiber scarcity in Germany as well as the impact of pulp substitution accelerated the decline in pulp market demand and pricing, which negatively impacted our operating results and contributed to a $20.4 million non-cash inventory impairment charge in the quarter.
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its third quarter of 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $208 million and a net loss of $172 million. …Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich, stated: “The ongoing global economic and trade uncertainty, in conjunction with punitive US softwood lumber duties, led to persistently weak market conditions and subdued demand across all of our operating regions during the third quarter of 2025. …For the lumber segment, the operating loss was $182.2 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to the previous quarter’s operating loss of $229.2 million. …For the 
Lumber futures steadied around $540 per thousand board feet, hovering near seven-week lows, after a sharp selloff driven mainly by softer US construction demand and lingering post-rally inventories. US housing starts and builder activity failed to accelerate, leaving order flow thin and dealer and distributor stocks higher than the summer buying binge implied. Supply has only partially adjusted, with North American mills signaling temporary curtailments, but looming US softwood measures and announced support for Canada’s industry have kept export channels and production incentives intact, preventing a rapid physical tightening. Traders are now pricing a likely mix of modest Q4 production cuts, seasonal pre-winter restocking and the risk of trade-related disruptions.
Vancouver, BC — Western Forest Products Inc. reported Adjusted EBITDA of negative $65.9 million in the third quarter of 2025, which included a non-cash export duty expense of $59.5 million related to the determination of final duty rates from the sixth Administrative Review. In comparison, the Company reported Adjusted EBITDA of negative $10.7 million in the third quarter of 2024, which included a $1.0 million export duty recovery related to the determination of final duty rates from the fifth AR, and Adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million in the second quarter of 2025. Net loss was $61.3 million in the third quarter of 2025, as compared to a net loss of $19.6 million in the third quarter of 2024, and net loss of $17.4 million in the second quarter of 2025.
MONTREAL, Quebec – Stella-Jones announced financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $958 million, up 5% from Q3 2024; Operating income of $135 million, up 4% from Q3 2024; EBITDA of $171 million, or 17.8% margin, up 6% from Q3 2024; and Net Income of $88 million, up 10% from Q3, 2024. …“Stella-Jones achieved another solid performance in the third quarter, supported by volume improvements, robust margins, improved cash flow and a strong balance sheet,” said Eric Vachon, CEO. …The increase in pressure-treated wood sales resulted from an increase in utility poles and industrial products volumes and higher pricing for railway ties and residential lumber. This was partially offset by lower pricing for utility poles. Logs and lumber sales decreased by $14 million or 47%, mainly driven by lower logs activity.
A technique used for the long-term preservation of human and animal remains is now being tested on Western red cedar. Plastination, originally designed to embalm the dead, is now being used to improve the functionality and durability of advanced composite materials. A team from UBC Okanagan’s School of Engineering has been experimenting with the technique and published a study that examined the 
The Liberal government is dropping its goal to plant two billion trees by 2031 as part of Tuesday’s budget, according to sources familiar with the matter. The government currently has contracts that they intend to fulfil to plant one billion trees, one source said. The news was first reported by the Globe and Mail. Prime Minister Mark Carney said last month that the budget will include a “climate competitiveness strategy.” But this is another key Trudeau-era climate policy that Carney has dropped since becoming leader, after ending the consumer carbon tax and pushing back the electric-vehicle sales mandate. …The government has struggled to keep up with the commitment, missing its annual planting targets in the past two years. Over 228 million trees have been planted so far, according to Natural Resources Canada’s latest update — leaving more than 1.7 billion in order to reach the target by 2030-31.
The steep flanks of Tsitika Mountain on northern Vancouver Island are scarred with clearcuts and slash piles almost to the boundary of the Tsitika Mountain and Robson Bight ecological reserves. High above the Tsitika River, 34 hectares of towering conifers, cliffs, and waterfalls are on the auction block. The parcel, labelled TA 1375 by BC Timber Sales, was recommended for deferral by BC’s advisory panel. That would have suspended logging, possibly permanently. Instead, BCTS is putting TA 1375 up for sale. …The steep and rugged terrain is a challenge for prospective loggers, but they face plenty of other obstacles. …Independent researchers at Tsitika Mountain made a surprising discovery this year: a Pacific Wild program recorded over 300 marbled murrelets flying through the area in one month.
NANAIMO, BC: Following Vancouver Island’s devastating wildfire season, Mosaic is focusing on ways it can help reduce the chances of fires starting or limit their damage. Mosaic responded to 34 wildfires in 2025—a 19% increase over the previous year’s 26 fires. This year, all five of the most significant blazes were human-caused. The first concerning fire ignited near Campbell River in early May, making 2025 one of the earliest wildfire starts for the company. The Mount Underwood wildfire near Port Alberni burned almost 2,400 hectares of Mosaic lands—roughly the size of the city of Duncan—destroying new forests and conserved old growth while causing community evacuations and road closures. Throughout the season, Mosaic’s fire crews worked with BC Wildfire Service, contractors, First Nations and emergency responders to protect communities and forests. 
Local governments are frustrated after receiving a long-awaited answer to when legislative changes are coming to the law governing how some forest lands are managed in B.C. The answer: with the trade war targeting B.C. lumber, the priority is protecting forestry jobs. …The 2003 Private Managed Forest Land (PMFL) Act puts no limit on the volume of timber that can be harvested, contrary to logging on Crown land. It’s administered by the Private Managed Forest Council, two of the five members of which have active vested interest in PMFLs. …The ministry maintains modernization to the act is being considered. In July… CBC reported the ministry is “working to modernize the act following the 2019 review.” When asked what changed between July and August, the ministry repeated it “continues to work with the Private Forest Landowners Association and the Managed Forest Council to modernize the Private Managed Forest Land Program.”
The Ministry of Natural Resources says nearly 6,000 square kilometres burned in Ontario this wildfire season, much more than last year and well above the province’s 10-year average. The ministry says 643 wildfires were recorded between April and October, with 597,654 hectares — or just over 5,976 square kilometres — burned. The province says 480 fires burned nearly 900 square kilometres in 2024, and the 10-year average for Ontario is 712 fires and about 2,100 square kilometres burned. Figures released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre in August showed that Canada’s 2025 wildfire season was the second-worst on record. Those figures suggested the fires tore through 72,000 square kilometres, an area roughly the size of New Brunswick. Scientists say that climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has made Canada’s fire seasons longer and more intense.