Canadian producers of softwood lumber are bracing for a decision this week from the U.S. Department of Commerce that could mean a surge in anti-dumping duty rates, compounding the industry’s worries over President Donald Trump’s threats for sweeping tariffs on all imports from Canada. Most Canadian producers are currently paying 7.66% in anti-dumping duties, but that could jump to 20 per cent, trade experts say. The Commerce Department’s decision, slated for Thursday, will be preliminary, with an effective date in August. …Analysts are [also] predicting that there will be higher countervailing duty rates, with the Commerce Department scheduled to issue a preliminary ruling in May. Forestry analyst Russ Taylor forecast that countervailing duties could rise to about 10%. Most Canadian softwood producers are paying countervailing and anti-dumping duties that currently total 14.4 per cent. …The Commerce Department’s administrative review is based on softwood markets in 2023, when prices were low. [to access the full story, a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
Another day, another tariff threat for markets to digest. This time it’s lumber getting whipsawed, as U.S. President Donald Trump says he is going to bring in tariffs on Canadian lumber imports to the U.S. soon. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday evening, Trump added lumber to the list of items he plans to slap tariffs on in the near future. …Canada would feel any such policy directly, but perhaps not as painfully as you might think. As is the case with oil, lumber is one front in the trade war where Canada can do a lot of collateral damage of its own. …While the U.S. theoretically has enough trees to meet its own needs, ramping things up both in terms of the logs and the capacity to process them would be next to impossible in the short term. Recall during the pandemic when Canadian lumber prices spiked by more than 300%, yet U.S. buyers kept buying. 
LONDON/BRUSSELS — The US paper and pulp industry is lobbying the Trump administration to ask the EU to declare the US deforestation-free, a step that could make it easier for exporters to meet the bloc’s new environmental rules. From December, the European Union’s anti-deforestation policy will ban imports of commodities linked to forest destruction. Brussels already delayed the policy’s launch by a year. …”A delay does not solve our concerns with the regulation’s complex requirements and significant technical barriers,” said Heidi Brock, CEO of the American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA). …The law does not contain a category of countries deemed to be deforestation-free – despite EU lawmakers attempting unsuccessfully to add a new “no risk” category of countries which would face even lighter rules. Any changes to the EU law would require a legal proposal from the Commission, and approval from EU lawmakers and member states.
WILLIAMS LAKE, BC — The City of Williams Lake has cancelled a lobbying junket to Victoria on the news Adrian Dix, minister of Energy, plans to meet with BC Hydro to discuss the imminent shut-down of the Atlantic Power station. The plant, which generates electricity through the burning of wood waste, is Williams Lake’s biggest industrial taxpayer. The company that owns it plans to shut down soon, unless the province can assure it better power rates and reliable fibre supply. The city has been lobbying the provincial government to prevent the power plant from shutting down, and had planned to converge on the BC Legislature tomorrow for the first day of the new BC legislative session. …The Atlantic Power plant is an independent power producers with a power purchase agreement with BC Hydro. The plant is owned by I Squared Capital, an American private equity investment firm.
B.C.’s rookie forests minister Ravi Parmar had a strong case to make as he travelled to Sacramento last week to meet with California business and government representatives. The state lost more than 16,000 structures in the recent wildfires … and California’s construction industry knows it will need B.C. and Alberta lumber for a rebuild that will take years. …Parmar says U.S. insurance companies confirmed that high-sticking Canada with more border fees for lumber will drive up costs for California fire claims and other new construction. A classic case for this dysfunctional relationship is Interfor Corp. …now one of the biggest lumber producers in the world, with a strategy to respond to trade attacks by expanding U.S. production. …Canadian forest companies shifting their investment to the U.S. involves other factors, such as pine beetle damage and governments restricting timber supply to satisfy often overblown environmental protests. But the effect is what Trump is after, moving jobs from Canada to the U.S.
The first session of B.C.’s 43rd Parliament opens Feb. 18, with traditional rituals like the Speech from the Throne. …This threat [of US tariffs] has since become much more real. Double-digit tariffs from the United States on key exports such as energy, minerals and lumber now loom over B.C. with some potentially reaching or exceeding 50 per cent in the case of aluminum and lumber. “The lumber industry, in particular, is vulnerable,” Werner Antweiler, Chair in International Trade Policy, at UBC’s Sauder School of Business said. “They are not very profitable at the moment and any further setback in terms of accessing the U.S. market will really hit hard. So I’m really worried about jobs in the lumber industry.” …But the threat of tariffs could also spur developments that government has previously neglected. They include efforts to finally break down barriers between provinces.
Lumber futures have recently surged past $610 per thousand board feet, reaching a near three-month high as market conditions tighten. A combination of mill closures, reduced North American production capacity, and tariff concerns has led to increasing volatility in the lumber market. Investors and traders are closely watching these developments, as the outlook for lumber futures remains uncertain amid ongoing supply and trade disruptions. …One of the primary drivers behind the latest rally in lumber futures is the ongoing reduction in North American production capacity. …Adding to the supply concerns is the looming increase in U.S. tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. For traders, this means increased volatility in lumber futures as market participants react to policy changes. Higher tariffs could discourage Canadian exports, forcing buyers to seek alternative sources or absorb the additional costs, further driving up lumber futures prices.
California home builders say they have very little choice but to continue buying Canadian softwood lumber from places like British Columbia, even if US President Donald Trump issues a 25% penalty on imports next month. The state is in the midst of its rebuilding efforts from the Pacific Palisades wildfires that ravaged the Los Angeles area. …Dan Dunmoyer, who is the president of the California Building Industry Association said the rebuild will become a lot more costly. …“The price of lumber is already starting to go up some even without the tariffs in place out of uncertainty, which again is a reason not to move quickly on tariffs. …“We are very desirous to rebuild as quickly as possible and at the lowest cost possible. The timing of tariffs or additional costs to softwood lumber coming from Canada is very ill-timed.”
Big, dense forests full of highly flammable wildfire fuel surround Hope. But the town itself isn’t as doomed to fiery destruction as one might initially fear. While there is plenty of potential for wildfires in the area, a new report presented to Hope council says Hope itself benefits from several geographic features that keep the risk to homes and businesses to moderate levels. The wildfire risks facing Hope have been comprehensively catalogued in the community’s first wildfire resilience plan, a draft of which was presented to council earlier this month. The report warns that a severe wildfire could burn wide swaths of the forests surrounding the town. The forests are dense and full of coniferous trees that bake in hot, dry summer weather. In Hope, the highest risk areas are those that buttress the nearby woods. 
Are you ready for a workplace emergency? In this month’s newsletter you’ll find all this and more: