Over the past year and a half, Tree Frog has periodically turned to political risk consultant Robert McKellar to help readers make sense of the forces reshaping the business environment for the North American forest sector. Most recently, in International Political Risk: Separating Noise From What Matters, Robert walked through how a political risk professional decides which of the world’s constant stream of headlines — tariffs, wars, trade disputes, sanctions — actually warrant a forest company’s attention, and which are just noise.
This time, Robert turns to a different, longer-running kind of risk — one that isn’t caused by any single event, but by a slow convergence of forces that can remake an entire industry over years, often without anyone recognizing it as it’s happening. Using two cases from the wood products sector — the rise of Chinese dominance in pulp and paper, and the decline of BC’s lumber industry — Robert shows how strategic risk hides in plain sight, and why it’s so often only clear in hindsight. The article closes on a practical question: if this kind of change is only clear in hindsight, how can companies improve their odds of catching it earlier? Robert’s answer is strategic risk management — less a set of day-to-day processes than a habit of thinking decades, not quarters, ahead.
Canada is imposing a temporary tariff on imports of some wood products as Ottawa awaits the findings of a probe into possible harmful practices in the global market. The federal government said in a news release that Canada will impose a 25% surtax on certain wood cabinets and vanities starting Friday. Those tariffs will be in place for a maximum of 200 days while the Canadian International Trade Tribunal investigates whether increased imports of those goods are threatening to harm Canada’s domestic producers. Wood cabinets and vanities manufactured in the United States, Mexico, Israel, Chile and developing nations will be exempt from the tariffs. The federal government said that’s in keeping with Canada’s international trade obligations. …Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne asked for the Canadian International Trade Tribunal inquiry back in April at the request of the Canadian Wood Products Alliance. The tribunal is expected to report its findings by Jan. 15, 2027.
President Trump will impose double-digit tariffs on imports from 60 countries over forced labor violations, US Trade Representative Greer announced. The action will cover 99.4% of US imports and apply to Washington’s top trading partners, according to a fact sheet released by his office. The tariffs are being brought under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. …The new levies, which go into effect at midnight Friday, will replace tariffs that Trump imposed under Section 122 of the trade law earlier this year as they were set to expire. The tariffs are a part of an effort from the administration to push all the country’s trading partners to eliminate forced labor from the global supply chain. Ten percent tariffs will be implemented on countries that have made commitments to adopt and enforce forced labor import prohibitions, while countries that have not enacted a forced labor import prohibition will be hit with a 12.5 percent tariff.
The U.S. Department of Commerce
The US will impose a 25% tariff on most imports from Brazil starting July 22, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Wednesday — the first action under the Trump administration’s new tariff strategy that could eventually affect dozens of countries. …Wednesday’s announcement follows a proposal by the Trump administration in June to impose a punitive tariff of 25% on many imports from Brazil after deciding its practices were unfair on a range of issues from digital trade to illegal deforestation. The tariffs would apply to thousands of Brazilian imports, including sugar, agricultural machinery, apparel, electrical machinery, paper and steel. The U.S. said it would exempt all the products proposed for exemption in the June notice, except high-purity dissolving pulp and non-pharmaceutical applications of certain products. The exemptions include beef, coffee, rare earths, energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts.
GERMANY — Mercer Torgau announced strategic actions at its Torgau facility in Germany including an expected overall workforce reduction of approximately 350 positions. …Mercer Torgau has been impacted by ongoing uncertainty in the global economy as well as heightened raw material and energy costs. …These strategic actions involve initiatives to streamline Mercer Torgau’s organization and processes, along with adjustments to its product portfolio. Among other things, Mercer Torgau’s production capacity and workforce structure will be realigned with market conditions. An initial reduction of approximately 100 contractor positions is expected in July 2026, and Mercer Torgau expects an overall workforce reduction of approximately 350 positions. Strategic actions have commenced and are expected to be completed in stages, completing in or about the second quarter of 2027. …Mercer Torgau manufacturing focuses on lumber for construction and packaging, pallets, planed wood products, wood pellets and briquettes.
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
The economic situation of the German sawmilling and timber industry remains strained, according to the latest report from the German Sawmill and Timber Industry Association (DESH). Ther Berlin-based group, which represents German sawmillers, says the persistently weak construction sector, the global economic and sales crisis, high raw material and production costs, and mounting cost pressures are placing a significant burden on domestic companies. It warns of a further deterioration in the situation. In the coming weeks, DESH says many companies will be forced to scale back production capacities and extend scheduled maintenance periods. “Despite promising rhetoric from policymakers, the hoped-for recovery of the domestic construction industry has yet to materialize,” it said. “Demand for construction timber in key export markets also remains subdued due to geopolitical crises and a global economic slowdown. At the same time, persistently high costs for raw materials, energy, and production are burdening companies. 
Housing starts across Japan climbed 18.6% in June for a third straight monthly rise, with the recovery missing the two-by-four segment built on imported dimension lumber, where starts fell 7.4%. That is according to data the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism released, which shows owner-occupied, rental, and built-for-sale housing all rising, while the platform-frame trade went the other way. Economists had expected a 12.8% rise, with the stronger result still slowing sharply from May’s 33.9% surge as owner-occupied growth eased to 15.7% from 31.8, rentals to 24.6 from 33.3, and built-for-sale homes to 14.2 from 39.2. Prefab housing swung 13.7% higher after a 3.4% fall in May, leaving two-by-four as the only wooden segment in decline. None of the growth measures a strong market, because the comparison month produced just 55,956 starts, down 15.6% in a third straight fall after the April 2025 revision to the Building Standards Act.


The EU has introduced new rules targeting packaging waste and “forever chemicals.” Although the changes will be phased in slowly, some small sellers have already paused shipments due to the additional red tape. In a drive to cut waste and improve public health, new
The first requirements of the EU’s new Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) take effect today, August 12. Duni Group is well prepared and welcomes the regulation, which creates a common framework for the European packaging market. 


IRELAND — Timber construction is moving from the margins of Irish residential development to its mainstream. An 


FRANCE — The megafire in Gironde, southwest France, has been “contained” since July 30, but foresters are still prohibited from entering the heart of their plots that were ravaged by the flames. It is too dangerous: With lingering smoke and a still-hot ground, the passage of a vehicle could rekindle the embers. As with the nearby fire in Landiras in 2022, they will probably have to wait for the fall rains before the fire can be officially declared extinguished. A race against time will then begin to fell all the burned trees as quickly as possible before the appearance of the destructive bark beetle and in the hope of selling the timber for the best possible price, depending on the extent of the burn. …The most damaged parts could be turned into heating pellets, while the preserved sections could be used for pallets, the paper industry or as timber. [to access the full story a Le Monde subscription is required]


As the Southern Europe heats up, countries are spending billions on firefighting efforts. But wildfire experts say a greater emphasis on preventative measures is needed to stop this year’s disaster from becoming a regular occurrence. “[Scientists] totally agree that we pretty much know what we need to do, but we’re massively lagging behind,” says Stefan Doerr, a geographer at Swansea University. …“First of all, we have to stop climate change,” says Alexander Held, a wildfire specialist at the European Forest Institute. “But we can’t do this in the short term.” Instead, he says it is vital to modify the land to cut back on the accumulation of fuel. One strategy is to thin highly flammable vegetation by reintroducing grazing livestock, cutting back growth, or even using prescribed burning… Making landscapes wetter can also suppress fires. …Introducing strips of more fire-resilient deciduous trees, for example, is an option.
Europe’s forests are losing more biomass than previously thought, with disturbances such as drought and pests causing increasingly large losses from some of the oldest forests in Europe. This situation has deteriorated markedly since 2018. These are the findings of a 
Global wildfires are intensifying, prompting “wildfire diplomacy” where nations share emergency resources like firefighters and aircraft. This cooperation, exemplified by US-Canada efforts and the EU mechanism, builds trust and facilitates immediate response. However, this assistance largely neglects crucial long-term recovery phases, including contamination testing, housing reconstruction, and public health. The article argues that effective wildfire diplomacy must extend beyond emergency aid to encompass prevention, shared resilience, and comprehensive post-fire recovery standards. This includes joint investment in forecasting, cross-border smoke protocols, and integrating Indigenous knowledge, ensuring communities can rebuild safely and sustainably.
SWITZERLAND — Forest trees can help contain heavy metals in polluted soils. But which tree species should be selected for this purpose? A study led by the Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) investigated how seven different Central European tree species respond to metal-contaminated soils. All seven Central European tree species tested showed a similar ability to stabilise heavy metals in contaminated soil. Tree species with low nutrient needs keep excess metals out of their stems and foliage, making the production of uncontaminated timber possible. Selecting suitable tree species could bring abandoned land back into productive use while also safely confining the soil pollutants. …One promising solution is phytostabilisation— using plants to reduce the spread of pollutants into the environment. Trees are particularly well suited because of their long lifespans and extensive root systems.
Inter IKEA Group has intensified oversight of its Romanian timber supply chain, choosing to strengthen supplier verification processes instead of withdrawing from one of its most challenging sourcing markets. The move comes as allegations concerning timber harvested from old-growth forests continue to attract attention. Ulf Johansson, Head of Raw Materials at Inter IKEA Group, said stronger monitoring provides a more effective response than ending procurement from Romania altogether. …According to Johansson, every supplier’s sourcing plan is reviewed annually to verify where timber originates and how it has been obtained. The company requires all wood used in IKEA products to carry certification from the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). Suppliers must also comply with the company’s mandatory IWAY MUST sourcing standard, which establishes requirements for responsible material procurement. …That position has been challenged by Greenpeace who published a report alleging that suppliers had harvested timber from forests with high biodiversity value.

NEW ZEALAND — With El Nio forecast to bring drier, windier conditions and elevated fire danger across many parts of New Zealand this summer, maintaining a strong level of readiness will be particularly important. A 
The long-anticipated El Niño is here. …In its monthly update in June, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued an El Niño advisory, confirming that the warmer conditions had developed in the specific part of the Pacific Ocean known as Niño 3.4. In order to be considered an El Niño, temperatures need to be 0.5 C above the average. Ocean temperatures are now close to 2 C above average. …The strongest El Niño in recent years was the one in 2015-2016, where the ocean temperature anomaly was roughly 2.75 C. ….Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA’s geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory, said the transition from a La Niña to El Niño has been very quick. …Meanwhile, in Canada, the effects will be seen in the winter months, bringing milder temperatures, but also drier conditions, something that is of great concern for wildfire development in the spring in Western Canada.
The European Union Deforestation Regulation has been postponed, amended and simplified since it came about in 2023, yet the central compliance challenge confronting wood pellet producers has barely changed. Producers shipping into the European Union will need to demonstrate that their fiber is legal and deforestation-free, identify the plots where the wood was harvested and preserve the connection between those plots and the finished product. That requirement reaches beyond conventional sustainability certification and deep into supplier networks that were not designed to provide plot-level information. …The delay has given the industry a longer runway, but the remaining work lies at the hardest end of the supply chain: beyond the pellet plant, beyond direct suppliers and back to the land itself. Producers that can make that connection auditable will enter the next phase with more than a completed due diligence statement; they will possess a clearer view of the fiber networks on which their businesses depend.
Scientist, Tim Searchinger, has resigned from the World Resources Institute amid disagreement over how to tally forest carbon in accounting rules that are under development. Those rules, which are being drafted by Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG Protocol) — a global standard-setting body overseen in part by the non-profit — will shape how companies in the forest industry report their carbon footprints. A senior research scholar at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, Searchinger said that he will be leaving his role as technical director of land-related issues this month because of what he said are shortcomings in the GHG Protocol’s process in drawing up the new rules. …Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, stepped down from his seat on the body’s Independent Standards Board in June over the same issue. …The argument centers on two competing approaches to calculate carbon stores and emissions from forests.
Thessaloniki, Greece – 

More than 300,000 people were evacuated and at least one person killed because of wildfires in France and Spain, with fire crews battling the blazes for several days. The two countries are facing massive wildfires that began last week amid successive heat waves in Europe that produced record high temperatures in several countries and led to thousands of excess deaths. …Fire crews were dealing with a 280-km perimeter of fire covering 77,000 hectares across Madrid, Ávila, and Toledo, Spain’s Secretary-General for Civil Protection and Emergencies Virginia Barcones told state broadcaster TVE. …In France, around 55,000 people were ordered to evacuate villages near Bordeaux… Much of Europe has been affected by successive heat waves that have raised the risk of wildfires. With temperatures expected to rise again and little rain forecast in many fire-affected areas, that danger is only expected to increase this week.
PARIS — A wildfire in southwest France grew so powerful that its smoke column became a thunderstorm, generating lightning that struck the ground and ignited new fires beyond the original blaze, French officials said. Put another way, that means the inferno was no longer simply being propelled by the weather. It was making its own. The thundercloud also produced violent, erratic winds capable of driving the flames in new directions. The phenomenon, called a pyrocumulonimbus, or pyroCb, is rare in Europe and more commonly documented in North America and Australia, where it occurs only over some of the most extreme fires. France’s national firefighters federation said it had never before recorded one in the country. …At about 6:20 p.m. Friday, two days after the fire began, the departmental fire and rescue service said it had generated a pyrocumulonimbus. The cloud weakened overnight as humidity rose, then formed again several times. An electrified black thundercloud…


BARCELONA, Spain — Firefighters in central Spain battled a wildfire on Wednesday that has burned over 32,000 hectares (79,000 acres) in one of the country’s largest blazes on record. The fire in rural Guadalajara comes less than two weeks after a deadly blaze devastated a small expat community in southern Spain. That small but extremely virulent fire killed 13 people, including several foreigners, in one of the southern European country’s deadliest wildfires. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday visited the fire-ravaged area in Guadalajara, and called for a pact between political parties to fight climate change. “Year after year we clearly see how climate change kills and destroys wealth in our communities,” Sánchez said in the village of Tamajón, located less than two hours by car northeast of Madrid. “This isn’t politics. It is science, it’s about facts.”