Kevin Mason
Although both US housing starts and sales data are showing some resilience in the face of an extremely difficult and volatile macroeconomic backdrop, several alarm bells are beginning to ring for the U.S. housing market. Mortgage rates, which have moved steadily higher over the past six months, are certainly cause for concern. …At the beginning of the year most pundits, including ourselves, expected some modest near-term rate relief; we are seeing the exact opposite unfold. With the conflict in the Middle East still far from resolved, we anticipate that elevated oil/energy prices will result in continued inflationary pressures through year-end (at least) and elevated mortgage rates will continue to drag on both new home construction and home sales activity (the latter which negatively impacts wood products demand from repair and remodel).
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, it’s a coin toss whether or not the Fed hikes by 25bps when it meets in mid-September, and the CME indicates an almost 38% probability that the funds rates will be 50bps higher by year end. And unsurprisingly, homebuilder confidence continues to worsen, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI slipped by another 2 points to 34 in July. The NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) which measures builder sentiment in the apartment and condo market, was off by 3 points.
Canada is imposing a temporary tariff on imports of some wood products as Ottawa awaits the findings of a probe into possible harmful practices in the global market. The federal government said in a news release that Canada will impose a 25% surtax on certain wood cabinets and vanities starting Friday. Those tariffs will be in place for a maximum of 200 days while the Canadian International Trade Tribunal investigates whether increased imports of those goods are threatening to harm Canada’s domestic producers. Wood cabinets and vanities manufactured in the United States, Mexico, Israel, Chile and developing nations will be exempt from the tariffs. The federal government said that’s in keeping with Canada’s international trade obligations. …Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne asked for the Canadian International Trade Tribunal inquiry back in April at the request of the Canadian Wood Products Alliance. The tribunal is expected to report its findings by Jan. 15, 2027.
President Trump will impose double-digit tariffs on imports from 60 countries over forced labor violations, US Trade Representative Greer announced. The action will cover 99.4% of US imports and apply to Washington’s top trading partners, according to a fact sheet released by his office. The tariffs are being brought under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. …The new levies, which go into effect at midnight Friday, will replace tariffs that Trump imposed under Section 122 of the trade law earlier this year as they were set to expire. The tariffs are a part of an effort from the administration to push all the country’s trading partners to eliminate forced labor from the global supply chain. Ten percent tariffs will be implemented on countries that have made commitments to adopt and enforce forced labor import prohibitions, while countries that have not enacted a forced labor import prohibition will be hit with a 12.5 percent tariff.
The US International Trade Commission (USITC) announced its injury determinations in its antidumping and countervailing duty investigations concerning hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam that the US Department of Commerce determined are subsidized and sold in the US at less than fair value and subsidized by the governments of China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. …Chairman Brett W. Doyle and Commissioners Jason S. Kearns and Peter-Anthony Pappas voted in the affirmative regarding hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. They also found that the imports of softwood structural plywood downfall and stamped and certified softwood structural plywood that Commerce determined are sold at less than fair value and subsidized… are negligible, and voted to terminate the antidumping and countervailing duty investigations for these products from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. The report will be available on the USITC website by September 28, 2026.
The U.S. Department of Commerce 
A six-week production shutdown at Metsä Fibre’s large bioproduct mill in Kemi will temporarily reduce demand for pulpwood in northern Finland. At the same time, Stora Enso is considering closing the Veitsiluoto sawmill permanently. The announcements increase uncertainty for forest owners, logging contractors and transport companies, although they do not mean that the regional wood trade will come to a standstill. Metsä Fibre will suspend production at its Kemi bioproduct mill for six weeks during October and November 2026. The shutdown will allow the company to modernise the mill’s cooking system and will be coordinated with its regular annual maintenance outage. The unusually long stoppage is expected to reduce the mill’s immediate consumption of pulpwood. …The immediate consequences are likely to include softer demand and more complicated logistics during the autumn. This does not amount to a collapse of northern Finland’s wood market. 
Canadian northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp has gone through a difficult cycle over the past three years. Following exceptionally strong prices after the pandemic, the market weakened as Chinese demand slowed, producer inventories grew and new hardwood pulp capacity came online in South America. …China remains the single most important external influence on Canadian pulp prices. As the world’s largest importer of market pulp, changes in Chinese inventories, paper production and economic growth quickly move global prices. Strong Chinese buying typically supports Canadian producers, while periods of inventory reduction or weak manufacturing place immediate downward pressure on pulp markets. …Recovered (recycled) fibre has become an increasingly important part of the industry. …The industry’s greatest challenge is increasingly on the supply side. …Over the next two to three years, the outlook for NBSK is cautiously positive. Unlike hardwood pulp, very little new softwood capacity is being built globally. [to access the full story, a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
The economic situation of the German sawmilling and timber industry remains strained, according to the latest report from the German Sawmill and Timber Industry Association (DESH). Ther Berlin-based group, which represents German sawmillers, says the persistently weak construction sector, the global economic and sales crisis, high raw material and production costs, and mounting cost pressures are placing a significant burden on domestic companies. It warns of a further deterioration in the situation. In the coming weeks, DESH says many companies will be forced to scale back production capacities and extend scheduled maintenance periods. “Despite promising rhetoric from policymakers, the hoped-for recovery of the domestic construction industry has yet to materialize,” it said. “Demand for construction timber in key export markets also remains subdued due to geopolitical crises and a global economic slowdown. At the same time, persistently high costs for raw materials, energy, and production are burdening companies. 
Housing starts across Japan climbed 18.6% in June for a third straight monthly rise, with the recovery missing the two-by-four segment built on imported dimension lumber, where starts fell 7.4%. That is according to data the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism released, which shows owner-occupied, rental, and built-for-sale housing all rising, while the platform-frame trade went the other way. Economists had expected a 12.8% rise, with the stronger result still slowing sharply from May’s 33.9% surge as owner-occupied growth eased to 15.7% from 31.8, rentals to 24.6 from 33.3, and built-for-sale homes to 14.2 from 39.2. Prefab housing swung 13.7% higher after a 3.4% fall in May, leaving two-by-four as the only wooden segment in decline. None of the growth measures a strong market, because the comparison month produced just 55,956 starts, down 15.6% in a third straight fall after the April 2025 revision to the Building Standards Act.
TAIWAN — The Taiwan Forestry Research Institute said it is promoting full utilization of Taiwan’s incense cedar to develop a high-value circular economy for forest resources. Incense cedar is an endemic species of Taiwan and is one of Taiwan’s five major coniferous tree species, the institute said. …While Taiwan incense cedar wood is popular with consumers thanks to its distinctive aroma, surplus materials generated during the process of forest tending, pruning and wood processing are usually used as fuel or disposed of, it said. The institute’s Chiayi Research Center promoted research on the reutilization of Taiwan incense cedar surplus materials at the Yunshui Experiment Station from last year to this year, the institute said. Water distillation was applied to extract Taiwan incense cedar oil from surplus materials, while the remaining materials would be ground into scented powder or made into incense cones, it said.
The EU has introduced new rules targeting packaging waste and “forever chemicals.” Although the changes will be phased in slowly, some small sellers have already paused shipments due to the additional red tape. In a drive to cut waste and improve public health, new 
The first requirements of the EU’s new Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) take effect today, August 12. Duni Group is well prepared and welcomes the regulation, which creates a common framework for the European packaging market. 
IRELAND — Timber construction is moving from the margins of Irish residential development to its mainstream. An 
FRANCE — The megafire in Gironde, southwest France, has been “contained” since July 30, but foresters are still prohibited from entering the heart of their plots that were ravaged by the flames. It is too dangerous: With lingering smoke and a still-hot ground, the passage of a vehicle could rekindle the embers. As with the nearby fire in Landiras in 2022, they will probably have to wait for the fall rains before the fire can be officially declared extinguished. A race against time will then begin to fell all the burned trees as quickly as possible before the appearance of the destructive bark beetle and in the hope of selling the timber for the best possible price, depending on the extent of the burn. …The most damaged parts could be turned into heating pellets, while the preserved sections could be used for pallets, the paper industry or as timber. [to access the full story a Le Monde subscription is required]
As the Southern Europe heats up, countries are spending billions on firefighting efforts. But wildfire experts say a greater emphasis on preventative measures is needed to stop this year’s disaster from becoming a regular occurrence. “[Scientists] totally agree that we pretty much know what we need to do, but we’re massively lagging behind,” says Stefan Doerr, a geographer at Swansea University. …“First of all, we have to stop climate change,” says Alexander Held, a wildfire specialist at the European Forest Institute. “But we can’t do this in the short term.” Instead, he says it is vital to modify the land to cut back on the accumulation of fuel. One strategy is to thin highly flammable vegetation by reintroducing grazing livestock, cutting back growth, or even using prescribed burning… Making landscapes wetter can also suppress fires. …Introducing strips of more fire-resilient deciduous trees, for example, is an option.
Europe’s forests are losing more biomass than previously thought, with disturbances such as drought and pests causing increasingly large losses from some of the oldest forests in Europe. This situation has deteriorated markedly since 2018. These are the findings of a 
Global wildfires are intensifying, prompting “wildfire diplomacy” where nations share emergency resources like firefighters and aircraft. This cooperation, exemplified by US-Canada efforts and the EU mechanism, builds trust and facilitates immediate response. However, this assistance largely neglects crucial long-term recovery phases, including contamination testing, housing reconstruction, and public health. The article argues that effective wildfire diplomacy must extend beyond emergency aid to encompass prevention, shared resilience, and comprehensive post-fire recovery standards. This includes joint investment in forecasting, cross-border smoke protocols, and integrating Indigenous knowledge, ensuring communities can rebuild safely and sustainably.
SWITZERLAND — Forest trees can help contain heavy metals in polluted soils. But which tree species should be selected for this purpose? A study led by the Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) investigated how seven different Central European tree species respond to metal-contaminated soils. All seven Central European tree species tested showed a similar ability to stabilise heavy metals in contaminated soil. Tree species with low nutrient needs keep excess metals out of their stems and foliage, making the production of uncontaminated timber possible. Selecting suitable tree species could bring abandoned land back into productive use while also safely confining the soil pollutants. …One promising solution is phytostabilisation— using plants to reduce the spread of pollutants into the environment. Trees are particularly well suited because of their long lifespans and extensive root systems.
Inter IKEA Group has intensified oversight of its Romanian timber supply chain, choosing to strengthen supplier verification processes instead of withdrawing from one of its most challenging sourcing markets. The move comes as allegations concerning timber harvested from old-growth forests continue to attract attention. Ulf Johansson, Head of Raw Materials at Inter IKEA Group, said stronger monitoring provides a more effective response than ending procurement from Romania altogether. …According to Johansson, every supplier’s sourcing plan is reviewed annually to verify where timber originates and how it has been obtained. The company requires all wood used in IKEA products to carry certification from the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). Suppliers must also comply with the company’s mandatory IWAY MUST sourcing standard, which establishes requirements for responsible material procurement. …That position has been challenged by Greenpeace who published a report alleging that suppliers had harvested timber from forests with high biodiversity value.
NEW ZEALAND — With El Nio forecast to bring drier, windier conditions and elevated fire danger across many parts of New Zealand this summer, maintaining a strong level of readiness will be particularly important. A 
The European Union Deforestation Regulation has been postponed, amended and simplified since it came about in 2023, yet the central compliance challenge confronting wood pellet producers has barely changed. Producers shipping into the European Union will need to demonstrate that their fiber is legal and deforestation-free, identify the plots where the wood was harvested and preserve the connection between those plots and the finished product. That requirement reaches beyond conventional sustainability certification and deep into supplier networks that were not designed to provide plot-level information. …The delay has given the industry a longer runway, but the remaining work lies at the hardest end of the supply chain: beyond the pellet plant, beyond direct suppliers and back to the land itself. Producers that can make that connection auditable will enter the next phase with more than a completed due diligence statement; they will possess a clearer view of the fiber networks on which their businesses depend.
For the past decade, Japan has been expanding the use of woody biomass for power generation to replace or be mixed and burned with coal. The country is now the second-largest wood pellet consumer in the world after the U.K. But there are concerns that burning wood pellets or palm kernel shells to generate electricity might not be safe. In the past few years, there have been at least 14 fires, explosions and accidents at biomass power plants across Japan. These incidents, combined with rising prices, pollution concerns and growing opposition are leading some to question the future of Japan’s large-scale biomass plants, an estimated 34 of which produce 3.5 gigawatts of power. …in the rush to expand plants, corners may have been cut, including improper construction and substandard storage and processing of wood pellets, says Roger Smith, Japan director at nonprofit Mighty Earth. 
Almost 4 million hectares of land burned across Canada during this summer’s fire season, much of it in the remote boreal forests. …some of the world’s largest and fastest-growing wildfires now occur in the Arctic and boreal region, across eight countries to form a ring around the North Pole and making up the world’s largest biome. Primarily triggered by lightning strikes and exacerbated by global warming, which is warming the Arctic boreal forests at up to four times the global average, these fires are becoming a major source of worldwide carbon emissions. …Arctic and boreal regions store an immense amount of carbon. Boreal forests alone house roughly two-thirds of global forest carbon. …Protecting the boreal from wildfire is not only about safeguarding northern communities and ecosystems. It is an essential part of tackling climate change, protecting public health and building resilience for a warming world.
Scientist, Tim Searchinger, has resigned from the World Resources Institute amid disagreement over how to tally forest carbon in accounting rules that are under development. Those rules, which are being drafted by Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG Protocol) — a global standard-setting body overseen in part by the non-profit — will shape how companies in the forest industry report their carbon footprints. A senior research scholar at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs, Searchinger said that he will be leaving his role as technical director of land-related issues this month because of what he said are shortcomings in the GHG Protocol’s process in drawing up the new rules. …Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, stepped down from his seat on the body’s Independent Standards Board in June over the same issue. …The argument centers on two competing approaches to calculate carbon stores and emissions from forests. 
Another round of intense heat is expected to sweep across large swaths of Europe this week, following a record-breaking start to the summer in Western Europe. Forecasters warned that rapidly rising temperatures, combined with persistently bone-dry conditions, could worsen the severe threat of wildfires. The latest heat wave will be Europe’s fifth since May, as a broad area of high pressure — also known as a heat dome — intensifies across the continent. The new heat wave comes after Western Europe recorded its hottest June to July period on record, according to Copernicus, the European Union’s climate monitoring service. The average temperature across the region during the two-month period was 21.62 degrees Celsius (70.92 degrees Fahrenheit), 2.79 degrees Celsius (5.02 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, which surpassed the previous record set in 2022. The most extreme heat is expected initially across parts of France, Spain and Italy before shifting toward Central Europe. [to access the full story a NY Times subscription is required]
PARIS — Firefighters across Europe struggled against multiple fires Friday as a new wave of record-breaking heat baked a swath of the continent, their task further complicated by exceptionally parched landscapes. …With France experiencing its driest year ever, a new fire raced through woodlands overnight in the Landes region on the southwest coast. The blaze forced more than 500 people to evacuate their homes in the town of Luglon as hundreds of firefighters deployed to the area.
Thessaloniki, Greece – 
More than 300,000 people were evacuated and at least one person killed because of wildfires in France and Spain, with fire crews battling the blazes for several days. The two countries are facing massive wildfires that began last week amid successive heat waves in Europe that produced record high temperatures in several countries and led to thousands of excess deaths. …Fire crews were dealing with a 280-km perimeter of fire covering 77,000 hectares across Madrid, Ávila, and Toledo, Spain’s Secretary-General for Civil Protection and Emergencies Virginia Barcones told state broadcaster TVE. …In France, around 55,000 people were ordered to evacuate villages near Bordeaux… Much of Europe has been affected by successive heat waves that have raised the risk of wildfires. With temperatures expected to rise again and little rain forecast in many fire-affected areas, that danger is only expected to increase this week.
PARIS — A wildfire in southwest France grew so powerful that its smoke column became a thunderstorm, generating lightning that struck the ground and ignited new fires beyond the original blaze, French officials said. Put another way, that means the inferno was no longer simply being propelled by the weather. It was making its own. The thundercloud also produced violent, erratic winds capable of driving the flames in new directions. The phenomenon, called a pyrocumulonimbus, or pyroCb, is rare in Europe and more commonly documented in North America and Australia, where it occurs only over some of the most extreme fires. France’s national firefighters federation said it had never before recorded one in the country. …At about 6:20 p.m. Friday, two days after the fire began, the departmental fire and rescue service said it had generated a pyrocumulonimbus. The cloud weakened overnight as humidity rose, then formed again several times. An electrified black thundercloud…
BARCELONA, Spain — Firefighters in central Spain battled a wildfire on Wednesday that has burned over 32,000 hectares (79,000 acres) in one of the country’s largest blazes on record. The fire in rural Guadalajara comes less than two weeks after a deadly blaze devastated a small expat community in southern Spain. That small but extremely virulent fire killed 13 people, including several foreigners, in one of the southern European country’s deadliest wildfires. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday visited the fire-ravaged area in Guadalajara, and called for a pact between political parties to fight climate change. “Year after year we clearly see how climate change kills and destroys wealth in our communities,” Sánchez said in the village of Tamajón, located less than two hours by car northeast of Madrid. “This isn’t politics. It is science, it’s about facts.”