
Kelly McCloskey

Robert McKellar
Over the past two years, Tree Frog has periodically turned to political risk consultant Robert McKellar to help readers better understand the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping the business environment in which the North American forest sector operates. In his feature Trump’s Second Term and Political Risk in the Canadian Forest Sector, Robert explored how changing politics, government policy and international relations can create both risks and opportunities for forest companies. In doing so, he also introduced readers to the discipline of political risk management—a practical framework for anticipating and responding to an increasingly uncertain world.
Robert’s earlier articles generated thoughtful feedback and reinforced a common observation: the pace of global change is becoming increasingly difficult to follow. Every day seems to bring another headline about tariffs, trade disputes, wars, sanctions, shipping disruptions, energy prices, artificial intelligence, or some other geopolitical development. For many of us, the challenge is no longer keeping up with the news—it’s deciding what actually deserves our attention. Which developments are likely to influence markets, trade and investment in the forest sector? Which simply warrant monitoring? And which are little more than background noise? Those questions are central to political risk management. They are also questions we increasingly hear from readers trying to make sense of a relentless news cycle and what it means for their businesses and organizations.
In this article, Robert steps back from the daily headlines to explain how political risk professionals approach that challenge. His answer offers a practical framework for separating signal from noise—and a useful way of thinking about the global forces increasingly shaping the future of the forest sector.
Canada is imposing a temporary tariff on imports of some wood products as Ottawa awaits the findings of a probe into possible harmful practices in the global market. The federal government said in a news release that Canada will impose a 25% surtax on certain wood cabinets and vanities starting Friday. Those tariffs will be in place for a maximum of 200 days while the Canadian International Trade Tribunal investigates whether increased imports of those goods are threatening to harm Canada’s domestic producers. Wood cabinets and vanities manufactured in the United States, Mexico, Israel, Chile and developing nations will be exempt from the tariffs. The federal government said that’s in keeping with Canada’s international trade obligations. …Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne asked for the Canadian International Trade Tribunal inquiry back in April at the request of the Canadian Wood Products Alliance. The tribunal is expected to report its findings by Jan. 15, 2027.
President Trump will impose double-digit tariffs on imports from 60 countries over forced labor violations, US Trade Representative Greer announced. The action will cover 99.4% of US imports and apply to Washington’s top trading partners, according to a fact sheet released by his office. The tariffs are being brought under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. …The new levies, which go into effect at midnight Friday, will replace tariffs that Trump imposed under Section 122 of the trade law earlier this year as they were set to expire. The tariffs are a part of an effort from the administration to push all the country’s trading partners to eliminate forced labor from the global supply chain. Ten percent tariffs will be implemented on countries that have made commitments to adopt and enforce forced labor import prohibitions, while countries that have not enacted a forced labor import prohibition will be hit with a 12.5 percent tariff.
The U.S. Department of Commerce
The US will impose a 25% tariff on most imports from Brazil starting July 22, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Wednesday — the first action under the Trump administration’s new tariff strategy that could eventually affect dozens of countries. …Wednesday’s announcement follows a proposal by the Trump administration in June to impose a punitive tariff of 25% on many imports from Brazil after deciding its practices were unfair on a range of issues from digital trade to illegal deforestation. The tariffs would apply to thousands of Brazilian imports, including sugar, agricultural machinery, apparel, electrical machinery, paper and steel. The U.S. said it would exempt all the products proposed for exemption in the June notice, except high-purity dissolving pulp and non-pharmaceutical applications of certain products. The exemptions include beef, coffee, rare earths, energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts.
GERMANY — Mercer Torgau announced strategic actions at its Torgau facility in Germany including an expected overall workforce reduction of approximately 350 positions. …Mercer Torgau has been impacted by ongoing uncertainty in the global economy as well as heightened raw material and energy costs. …These strategic actions involve initiatives to streamline Mercer Torgau’s organization and processes, along with adjustments to its product portfolio. Among other things, Mercer Torgau’s production capacity and workforce structure will be realigned with market conditions. An initial reduction of approximately 100 contractor positions is expected in July 2026, and Mercer Torgau expects an overall workforce reduction of approximately 350 positions. Strategic actions have commenced and are expected to be completed in stages, completing in or about the second quarter of 2027. …Mercer Torgau manufacturing focuses on lumber for construction and packaging, pallets, planed wood products, wood pellets and briquettes.
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
The economic situation of the German sawmilling and timber industry remains strained, according to the latest report from the German Sawmill and Timber Industry Association (DESH). Ther Berlin-based group, which represents German sawmillers, says the persistently weak construction sector, the global economic and sales crisis, high raw material and production costs, and mounting cost pressures are placing a significant burden on domestic companies. It warns of a further deterioration in the situation. In the coming weeks, DESH says many companies will be forced to scale back production capacities and extend scheduled maintenance periods. “Despite promising rhetoric from policymakers, the hoped-for recovery of the domestic construction industry has yet to materialize,” it said. “Demand for construction timber in key export markets also remains subdued due to geopolitical crises and a global economic slowdown. At the same time, persistently high costs for raw materials, energy, and production are burdening companies. 
Housing starts across Japan climbed 18.6% in June for a third straight monthly rise, with the recovery missing the two-by-four segment built on imported dimension lumber, where starts fell 7.4%. That is according to data the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism released, which shows owner-occupied, rental, and built-for-sale housing all rising, while the platform-frame trade went the other way. Economists had expected a 12.8% rise, with the stronger result still slowing sharply from May’s 33.9% surge as owner-occupied growth eased to 15.7% from 31.8, rentals to 24.6 from 33.3, and built-for-sale homes to 14.2 from 39.2. Prefab housing swung 13.7% higher after a 3.4% fall in May, leaving two-by-four as the only wooden segment in decline. None of the growth measures a strong market, because the comparison month produced just 55,956 starts, down 15.6% in a third straight fall after the April 2025 revision to the Building Standards Act.


Softwood markets across Latin America and the Asia-Pacific are approaching a turning point, according to the latest market report from Global Wood Trends and O’Kelly Acumen. The report says some of the world’s lowest-cost plantation producers are increasingly linked to major importing markets where domestic supply growth is limited. “With harvests expected to decline in key exporting regions, China remaining structurally dependent on imports, and Japan nearing peak production, the regional supply balance is likely to tighten through 2035 – creating new risks and opportunities for producers, investors, traders, and wood consumers,” it says. The ‘Global Softwood Roundwood Supply – Latin America & Asia-Pacific’ report… says Latin America, Asia, and Oceania. Latin America remain a highly competitive source of softwood roundwood. Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay account for nearly all regional softwood supply, supported by large-scale plantation forestry and investment by integrated forest-product companies and institutional owners. 



IRELAND — Timber construction is moving from the margins of Irish residential development to its mainstream. An 


As the Southern Europe heats up, countries are spending billions on firefighting efforts. But wildfire experts say a greater emphasis on preventative measures is needed to stop this year’s disaster from becoming a regular occurrence. “[Scientists] totally agree that we pretty much know what we need to do, but we’re massively lagging behind,” says Stefan Doerr, a geographer at Swansea University. …“First of all, we have to stop climate change,” says Alexander Held, a wildfire specialist at the European Forest Institute. “But we can’t do this in the short term.” Instead, he says it is vital to modify the land to cut back on the accumulation of fuel. One strategy is to thin highly flammable vegetation by reintroducing grazing livestock, cutting back growth, or even using prescribed burning… Making landscapes wetter can also suppress fires. …Introducing strips of more fire-resilient deciduous trees, for example, is an option.
Europe’s forests are losing more biomass than previously thought, with disturbances such as drought and pests causing increasingly large losses from some of the oldest forests in Europe. This situation has deteriorated markedly since 2018. These are the findings of a 
Global wildfires are intensifying, prompting “wildfire diplomacy” where nations share emergency resources like firefighters and aircraft. This cooperation, exemplified by US-Canada efforts and the EU mechanism, builds trust and facilitates immediate response. However, this assistance largely neglects crucial long-term recovery phases, including contamination testing, housing reconstruction, and public health. The article argues that effective wildfire diplomacy must extend beyond emergency aid to encompass prevention, shared resilience, and comprehensive post-fire recovery standards. This includes joint investment in forecasting, cross-border smoke protocols, and integrating Indigenous knowledge, ensuring communities can rebuild safely and sustainably.
SWITZERLAND — Forest trees can help contain heavy metals in polluted soils. But which tree species should be selected for this purpose? A study led by the Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) investigated how seven different Central European tree species respond to metal-contaminated soils. All seven Central European tree species tested showed a similar ability to stabilise heavy metals in contaminated soil. Tree species with low nutrient needs keep excess metals out of their stems and foliage, making the production of uncontaminated timber possible. Selecting suitable tree species could bring abandoned land back into productive use while also safely confining the soil pollutants. …One promising solution is phytostabilisation— using plants to reduce the spread of pollutants into the environment. Trees are particularly well suited because of their long lifespans and extensive root systems.
Inter IKEA Group has intensified oversight of its Romanian timber supply chain, choosing to strengthen supplier verification processes instead of withdrawing from one of its most challenging sourcing markets. The move comes as allegations concerning timber harvested from old-growth forests continue to attract attention. Ulf Johansson, Head of Raw Materials at Inter IKEA Group, said stronger monitoring provides a more effective response than ending procurement from Romania altogether. …According to Johansson, every supplier’s sourcing plan is reviewed annually to verify where timber originates and how it has been obtained. The company requires all wood used in IKEA products to carry certification from the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). Suppliers must also comply with the company’s mandatory IWAY MUST sourcing standard, which establishes requirements for responsible material procurement. …That position has been challenged by Greenpeace who published a report alleging that suppliers had harvested timber from forests with high biodiversity value.

NEW ZEALAND — With El Nio forecast to bring drier, windier conditions and elevated fire danger across many parts of New Zealand this summer, maintaining a strong level of readiness will be particularly important. A 
ITALY — The good news is that European forests continue to grow: according to the 2025–2026 Annual Report of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS), a body representing around 80 per cent of European sawn timber production, European forests now cover over 232 million hectares, equivalent to 35.4% of the continent’s land area, and over the last 35 years they have expanded by more than 23 million hectares, with an average increase of around 665,000 hectares each year. At the same time, Europe’s forest stock has reached 38.3 billion cubic metres, an increase of around 45% compared with 1990. Yet – and this is the less positive news – the availability of raw materials for the timber industry remains one of the main challenges to the sector’s competitiveness and to Europe’s sustainability objectives, as emerged from the Forestry-Timber General Assembly organised in Bologna by Filiera Legno (an association representing almost 600 companies in the timber industry).
The long-anticipated El Niño is here. …In its monthly update in June, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued an El Niño advisory, confirming that the warmer conditions had developed in the specific part of the Pacific Ocean known as Niño 3.4. In order to be considered an El Niño, temperatures need to be 0.5 C above the average. Ocean temperatures are now close to 2 C above average. …The strongest El Niño in recent years was the one in 2015-2016, where the ocean temperature anomaly was roughly 2.75 C. ….Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA’s geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory, said the transition from a La Niña to El Niño has been very quick. …Meanwhile, in Canada, the effects will be seen in the winter months, bringing milder temperatures, but also drier conditions, something that is of great concern for wildfire development in the spring in Western Canada.
Western Europe has been scorched by its hottest June on record, scientists have said, as the UK enters its third heatwave of the year and wildfires ravage France and Spain. Inflamed by carbon pollution, the deadly June heatwave helped push surface air temperatures for the region 3.06C above their average from recent decades. Globally, June 2026 was 0.56C hotter than the 1991-2020 average and 1.39C hotter than preindustrial levels, making it the second-warmest June on record, the agency found. …Western Europe is facing its third heatwave in six weeks and widespread dryness is helping small wildfires explode into unchecked blazes. Copernicus said the succession of heatwaves illustrated “the growing challenge” posed by worsening heat extremes. Raging infernos have laid waste to large areas of southern Europe in recent days, prompting the EU to scramble firefighters and water-bearing planes to help national services overwhelmed by simultaneous blazes. 

More than 300,000 people were evacuated and at least one person killed because of wildfires in France and Spain, with fire crews battling the blazes for several days. The two countries are facing massive wildfires that began last week amid successive heat waves in Europe that produced record high temperatures in several countries and led to thousands of excess deaths. …Fire crews were dealing with a 280-km perimeter of fire covering 77,000 hectares across Madrid, Ávila, and Toledo, Spain’s Secretary-General for Civil Protection and Emergencies Virginia Barcones told state broadcaster TVE. …In France, around 55,000 people were ordered to evacuate villages near Bordeaux… Much of Europe has been affected by successive heat waves that have raised the risk of wildfires. With temperatures expected to rise again and little rain forecast in many fire-affected areas, that danger is only expected to increase this week.
PARIS — A wildfire in southwest France grew so powerful that its smoke column became a thunderstorm, generating lightning that struck the ground and ignited new fires beyond the original blaze, French officials said. Put another way, that means the inferno was no longer simply being propelled by the weather. It was making its own. The thundercloud also produced violent, erratic winds capable of driving the flames in new directions. The phenomenon, called a pyrocumulonimbus, or pyroCb, is rare in Europe and more commonly documented in North America and Australia, where it occurs only over some of the most extreme fires. France’s national firefighters federation said it had never before recorded one in the country. …At about 6:20 p.m. Friday, two days after the fire began, the departmental fire and rescue service said it had generated a pyrocumulonimbus. The cloud weakened overnight as humidity rose, then formed again several times. An electrified black thundercloud…


BARCELONA, Spain — Firefighters in central Spain battled a wildfire on Wednesday that has burned over 32,000 hectares (79,000 acres) in one of the country’s largest blazes on record. The fire in rural Guadalajara comes less than two weeks after a deadly blaze devastated a small expat community in southern Spain. That small but extremely virulent fire killed 13 people, including several foreigners, in one of the southern European country’s deadliest wildfires. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday visited the fire-ravaged area in Guadalajara, and called for a pact between political parties to fight climate change. “Year after year we clearly see how climate change kills and destroys wealth in our communities,” Sánchez said in the village of Tamajón, located less than two hours by car northeast of Madrid. “This isn’t politics. It is science, it’s about facts.”

Firefighting aircraft battled to contain a wildfire raging in a forest south of Paris for a second day on Monday, with the blaze forcing some residents from their homes as the region baked in a latest heatwave. French officials rushed two firefighting planes to the Paris region Sunday, after a fire erupted south of the French capital, disrupting traffic during a busy summer travel weekend and piling more misery on a region sweltering through its latest heatwave. The fire, which officials described as “very virulent” and of “exceptional scale”, began late afternoon in the sprawling Fontainebleau forest about 60 kilometres (40 miles) south-east of the capital, a onetime royal hunting preserve that today is dotted with quiet villages. It had raced across 800 hectares and was still spreading, officials said early Monday, causing the partial closure of the A6 highway, the country’s main north-south artery.