Tree Frog Editor: This insight paper by political risk analyst Robert McKellar offers a strategic lens on how a second Trump administration is shaping US behaviour as a global actor — an issue with direct implications for trade-exposed sectors. McKellar is a founding partner at Harmattan Risk and the co-author of “Trump’s Second Term: Political Risk and the Forest Products Sector,” an analysis of US trade policy, tariff dynamics, and geopolitical uncertainty. In this paper, he steps back from industry-specific analysis to explore the broader strategic logic — and contradictions — underlying current US global behaviour, providing context for the policy volatility and trade uncertainty facing the sector.
Robert McKellar
The US, a lynchpin global player, has become a change bomb, and having a clear sense of the US as an agent on the world stage is critical to sense-making that can inform appropriate strategic responses. But as it stands, Trump, whose character shapes his administration, is a wildcard. He is seemingly bored to tears by stability in any issue he deals with, and bored by a set menu of priorities. …Do we resign ourselves to perpetually playing catch up with US moves and their reverberations, or is it possible to get ahead of the Trumpian storm with a reasonably accurate sketch of the US as a global actor? If its moves were guided by strategic rationality, we would be able to extrapolate some idea of its future behaviour, and even a sense of how the international system might look in a few years and the critical challenges any given state might present…
Seasoned observers of US politics and international behaviour might have foreseen some of what is happening now, but by and large they did not expect Godzilla. Thus, they have often latched onto their own predispositions to fill in the considerable blanks. This has, for the most part, yielded two poles of interpretation. One is that Trump and his team are acting on a strategic assessment, and that despite apparent mayhem their moves are rational, even coldly calculating. The other is that the US has succumbed to the baser aspects of personal rule. Thus, Trump’s eccentric character and ego are the main source of US global behaviour. …The emerging reality no doubt lies somewhere in between, but to triangulate to an approximation, we need to prod around both poles of interpretation.
VIETNAM — The United States has decided to postpone the tariff increase on certain finished wood products, including upholstered chairs, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets, from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. The postponement of the tax increase on some finished wood products helps Vietnamese businesses temporarily avoid the policy shock at the beginning of 2026. However, this is not a sign of loosening, but rather a tactical retreat, requiring the wood industry to be more proactive and cautious in policy planning and restructuring the overall development strategy of the entire industry. …Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice President of the Vietnam Wood and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), commented that if postponing the tariff increase is considered an “opportunity,” then extreme caution is needed. In reality, tariff pressure has spread throughout the entire supply chain, from domestic manufacturers to importers and retail systems in the US.
Australia’s forestry industry says cheap imported timber products are flooding the local market and taking up increased space in local homes and buildings. South Australian Forest Products Association (SAFPA) chief executive Nathan Paine said international trade conditions, fuelled by US tariffs, were responsible for imports reaching Australia at about half the price of local timber. This timber includes laminated veneer lumber (LVL) — a construction product that competes with locally grown radiata pine. …Analysis from Forest and Wood Products Australia showed LVL imports had increased 63% in 2025 compared to a year earlier. …Primary Industries Minister Clare Scriven said the state government could stand behind its past support for the timber industry. Housing Industry Australia chief executive of industry and policy Simon Croft said the pandemic’s trade disruptions had caused a spike in construction costs.
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
Tokyo — Housing starts in Japan fell 6.5% from the previous year to 740,667 units in 2025, down for the third straight year and hitting a 62-year low, the land ministry said Friday. The drop reflected deterioration in consumer sentiment amid rising prices, as well as falling demand due to the country’s shrinking population. Of the total, owner-occupied houses dropped 7.7% to 201,285 units, down for the fourth consecutive year. Housing for rent fell 5.0% to 324,991 units, down for the third year in a row. Condominiums and houses for sale decreased 7.6% to 208,169 units, down for the third consecutive year. The results can also be attributed to a law revision in April that led to delays in construction starts for wooden homes with energy-saving features.
In the construction industry, ideas or materials first seen on the margins of construction processes later become an established part of those processes. …And so it seems to be with Mass Timber Construction (MTC). MTC entered the construction industry as an intriguing approach to reduce embodied carbon. …Today, MTC has become a mainstream building method. Across North America, there are reportedly 2,500 MTC buildings already built or in the planning stages. Similar levels of acceptance are seen in Europe. The world’s leading architects and designers have embraced MTC by incorporating wood components into a wide range of building types and sizes, from commercial offices to housing, campuses, infrastructure and even data centres. Interest and acceptance have moved beyond the pure environmental benefits of using MTC. Economics, simple dollars and cents, are now recognized as a persuasive factor as well. This is because mass timber changes the mechanics of construction.
Ingka Investments, the investment arm of Ingka Group (IKEA’s largest retailer), has completed the acquisition of forestland from Södra in Latvia and Estonia, following the signing of the agreement announced in October 2025. The transaction is part of Ingka Investments’ strategy to invest in long‑term assets that combine financial resilience with positive impact for the Ingka Group and IKEA business, building a strong foundation for many generations to come. With the acquisition now completed, Ingka Investments will take on the role of long‑term forest owner, with the ambition to manage the forest in a responsible way, while contributing to local economic activity. …Total area included in the acquisition is 135,232 ha in Latvia, and 17,742 ha in Estonia. The purchase price of the asset was EUR 720 million. …With IKEA retail operations in 32 markets, Ingka Group is the largest IKEA retailer and represents 87% of IKEA retail sales.
HCM CITY — Proactive compliance with legal timber sourcing and sustainability standards is essential not only for business survival, but also for repositioning Việt Nam’s wood industry towards greater transparency, responsibility, and higher value creation in global supply chains, speakers said at a seminar in HCM City on January 29. Speaking at the Forest Talk & Link seminar themed “Wood Consumption, Climate Change and Deforestation-Free Requirements”, Võ Quang Hà, Chairman of the HCM City Structure Architecture Wood Association (SAWA), said Việt Nam exported more than US$17 billion worth of wood and wood products in 2025, ranking among the world’s leading furniture exporters. However, an estimated $4–5 billion in export revenue still derives from low-value wood chips and pellets, underscoring the sector’s significant untapped potential for value-added growth. Developing large-timber plantations was identified as a key solution.
Observed annually on February 2, World Wetlands Day marks the adoption of the Ramsar Convention in 1971 and provides an international framework for recognizing the role of wetlands in environmental protection and sustainable development. The 2026 edition is held under the theme “Wetlands and traditional knowledge: Celebrating cultural heritage,” drawing attention to the long-standing relationships between wetland ecosystems and the cultural practices, knowledge systems, and governance structures developed by communities over centuries. The theme highlights how inherited ecological knowledge, often embedded in rituals, seasonal calendars, land-use practices, and spatial organization, has shaped resilient interactions between human settlements and water-based landscapes. …World Wetlands Day 2026 emphasizes the need to reconsider prevailing development models by integrating traditional knowledge with scientific research and planning strategies in efforts toward conservation, restoration, and long-term environmental stewardship.
BOGOTA, Colombia — Chile is reeling from one of its most serious wildfire emergencies in years. Deadly flames sweeping across central and southern parts of the South American country have turned large swaths of forest and towns to ash. Fire scientists say the blazes are being driven not only by extreme heat, drought and wind, but also by how human-shaped landscapes interact with changing climates — a lethal mix that makes fires harder to control. …The fires have razed forests, farmland and hundreds of homes. …What distinguishes Chile’s current fire season isn’t an unusual surge in the number of fires, but the amount of land they are burning. …Miguel Castillo, at the University of Chile… “almost tripling the amount of affected area,” even though the number of fires so far is “within normal margins.” That means fewer ignitions are causing far greater damage — a pattern increasingly seen in extreme wildfire seasons around the world.
Mexico’s National Forestry Commission has issued the 2026 Rules of Operation for its Sustainable Forestry Development for Wellbeing Program, establishing requirements to access federal funding. The rules guidelines governing the allocation of public resources to strengthen sustainable forest development across Mexico. The program is structured around six support components: community forest management and sustainable value chains; commercial and agroforestry plantations; forest restoration; environmental services; forest protection; and capacity building and local development. Through these components, financial support will be provided to ejidos, Indigenous and Afro-Mexican communities, women-led forestry enterprises, and landowners of forested and preferentially forested land. Eligible projects include sustainable forest management, forest and agroforestry plantations, ecosystem restoration, conservation of environmental services, and protection against wildfires, pests, and diseases. Support also covers training and research activities, with a cross-cutting gender approach designed to strengthen women’s participation—particularly Indigenous and Afro-Mexican women—in decision-making and forestry value chains.
Nature markets are systems for measuring an ecological improvement on some land, then creating a representation of that improvement as a credit, which can then be bought and sold. In theory, they allow governments to attract more private investment and diversify funds that help restore nature. The reality is much more complicated. I recently 
UK energy company Drax’s ambitions of becoming a significant wood pellet supplier to Asia are in danger of faltering as Japanese policymakers wind back generous subsidies for the biomass sector. Japan is set to soon surpass the UK as the world’s largest wood pellet importer after a post-Fukushima push to diversify power sources that caused hundreds of plants to spring up that burn wood pellets, palm kernel shells — a palm oil byproduct — and other organic materials. But policymakers in Japan are pulling support for the controversial industry after realising the hurdles to bringing down fuel costs. Tokyo has already cut subsidies for new projects of more than 10 megawatts. “The real intention is quite simple: no new government support, phasing out. We don’t see any clear path of bringing down costs in the foreseeable future,” said one government official. “Existing projects might survive but no new projects are coming.”
A door company in Ireland says it holds the key to turning wood dust into electricity to help power its factory. It’s part of a new multimillion-pound investment by O&S Doors. The company says the onsite renewable heat and energy technology is “a first on the island of Ireland”. Currently the company takes wood dust left over from the manufacturing process and ships it to England where it is used as animal bedding or sent to landfill. But the company – located just outside Benburb in County Tyrone – has revealed new details of its plans to install a biomass-fuelled combined heat and power system. It will turn the dust into millions of units of electricity that can reused to power parts of the factory. …O&S Doors says its biomass-fuelled combined heat and power system will harness MDF dust.
The energy industry initially sold wood pellets as a way to clean up coal. And governments bought into that assumption. But now policymakers are questioning that position and even reversing course. At the center of this debate is a UK-based power company called Drax, which converted Europe’s largest coal plant into a biomass facility—one fueled by wood pellets that it imported from southern states in the United States. The debate raises a multitude of questions, namely those centered on pollution and costs. That is, if the additive creates more pollution than either wind or solar energy, why bother, especially since it comes from a power source that depends on subsidies? Merry Dickinson, campaign director for the Dogwood Alliance, told me that Drax now operates entirely on woody biomass… “The amount of wood required … is beyond what is available as waste wood,” Dickinson says. “…much of the supply consists of whole trees.” [Forbes allows 4 free articles per month]