
Russ Taylor
Depending on whether or not you include pulp and paper, China was, until recently, the second biggest market for B.C. wood products. If you include pulp and paper, it still is. But there has been a dramatic decline in lumber exports to China from B.C. in the last four years, and global wood markets analyst Russ Taylor does not expect things to improve much until 2025. Taylor spent two weeks in China in October. …“No one’s done a forecast on China for a number of years now,” Taylor said. His new outlook – due to be published next month — will forecast supply, demand and prices for logs and lumber in China out to 2035. China continues to be a major buyer of B.C. pulp and paper. …Lumber is a whole other story – a story that is really about China’s burst housing bubble.
Fifteen years ago, B.C. lumber producers had a plethora of cheap beetle-killed pine to unload, and China proved to be a timely buyer. But new home construction in China has fallen off in recent years, and B.C. producers have pretty much exhausted the supply of cheap beetle kill. …Northern Europe captured about 33 per cent of the market for log exports in 2021, Taylor said, thanks to an abundance of spruce bark beetle kill, but much of that beetle kill is now used up. New Zealand is one of the few players left in the log market, Taylor said. …“The only good news that I see is that China will be forced to purchase more lumber imports because they won’t have the logs,” Taylor said. Right now, there isn’t a whole lot of confidence in the Chinese homebuilding sector. But Taylor expects things will start to improve in 2025. “It will probably bottom out in 2024 and then move again slowly upwards.”