Tree Frog Editor: This insight paper by political risk analyst Robert McKellar offers a strategic lens on how a second Trump administration is shaping US behaviour as a global actor — an issue with direct implications for trade-exposed sectors. McKellar is a founding partner at Harmattan Risk and the co-author of “Trump’s Second Term: Political Risk and the Forest Products Sector,” an analysis of US trade policy, tariff dynamics, and geopolitical uncertainty. In this paper, he steps back from industry-specific analysis to explore the broader strategic logic — and contradictions — underlying current US global behaviour, providing context for the policy volatility and trade uncertainty facing the sector.
Robert McKellar
The US, a lynchpin global player, has become a change bomb, and having a clear sense of the US as an agent on the world stage is critical to sense-making that can inform appropriate strategic responses. But as it stands, Trump, whose character shapes his administration, is a wildcard. He is seemingly bored to tears by stability in any issue he deals with, and bored by a set menu of priorities. …Do we resign ourselves to perpetually playing catch up with US moves and their reverberations, or is it possible to get ahead of the Trumpian storm with a reasonably accurate sketch of the US as a global actor? If its moves were guided by strategic rationality, we would be able to extrapolate some idea of its future behaviour, and even a sense of how the international system might look in a few years and the critical challenges any given state might present…
Seasoned observers of US politics and international behaviour might have foreseen some of what is happening now, but by and large they did not expect Godzilla. Thus, they have often latched onto their own predispositions to fill in the considerable blanks. This has, for the most part, yielded two poles of interpretation. One is that Trump and his team are acting on a strategic assessment, and that despite apparent mayhem their moves are rational, even coldly calculating. The other is that the US has succumbed to the baser aspects of personal rule. Thus, Trump’s eccentric character and ego are the main source of US global behaviour. …The emerging reality no doubt lies somewhere in between, but to triangulate to an approximation, we need to prod around both poles of interpretation.
VIETNAM — The United States has decided to postpone the tariff increase on certain finished wood products, including upholstered chairs, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets, from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. The postponement of the tax increase on some finished wood products helps Vietnamese businesses temporarily avoid the policy shock at the beginning of 2026. However, this is not a sign of loosening, but rather a tactical retreat, requiring the wood industry to be more proactive and cautious in policy planning and restructuring the overall development strategy of the entire industry. …Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice President of the Vietnam Wood and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), commented that if postponing the tariff increase is considered an “opportunity,” then extreme caution is needed. In reality, tariff pressure has spread throughout the entire supply chain, from domestic manufacturers to importers and retail systems in the US.
Australia’s forestry industry says cheap imported timber products are flooding the local market and taking up increased space in local homes and buildings. South Australian Forest Products Association (SAFPA) chief executive Nathan Paine said international trade conditions, fuelled by US tariffs, were responsible for imports reaching Australia at about half the price of local timber. This timber includes laminated veneer lumber (LVL) — a construction product that competes with locally grown radiata pine. …Analysis from Forest and Wood Products Australia showed LVL imports had increased 63% in 2025 compared to a year earlier. …Primary Industries Minister Clare Scriven said the state government could stand behind its past support for the timber industry. Housing Industry Australia chief executive of industry and policy Simon Croft said the pandemic’s trade disruptions had caused a spike in construction costs.
RUSS TAYLOR provided the latest quarterly report from the 
Global markets plunged Tuesday after President Trump reignited fears of a US trade war with the European Union, America’s largest trading partner. The president showed no signs of backing off his threat from Saturday to hit seven EU countries and the United Kingdom with new tariffs unless they supported his push for American control of Greenland. Asked if he would be willing to use force to seize the semi-autonomous Danish territory, Trump replied, “No comment,” on Monday. The S&P 500 sold off by around 1.3% in early trading, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 1.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 600 points. The S&P 500 has erased its gains for the year so far. Investors also sold off U.S. government bonds, driving up interest rates. Rising returns on US treasuries usually translate into higher mortgage rates and interest on new personal loans.
Tokyo — Housing starts in Japan fell 6.5% from the previous year to 740,667 units in 2025, down for the third straight year and hitting a 62-year low, the land ministry said Friday. The drop reflected deterioration in consumer sentiment amid rising prices, as well as falling demand due to the country’s shrinking population. Of the total, owner-occupied houses dropped 7.7% to 201,285 units, down for the fourth consecutive year. Housing for rent fell 5.0% to 324,991 units, down for the third year in a row. Condominiums and houses for sale decreased 7.6% to 208,169 units, down for the third consecutive year. The results can also be attributed to a law revision in April that led to delays in construction starts for wooden homes with energy-saving features.
HÀ NỘI — Despite unprecedented challenges from global markets and the growing impacts of climate change, 2025 marked a historic milestone for Việt Nam’s wood industry, as export turnover of timber and wood products surpassed US$17 billion for the first time. According to data from Việt Nam Customs, exports of timber and wood products reached nearly $1.7 billion in December 2025 alone, bringing total export value for the year to $17.2 billion – an increase of nearly 6 per cent compared with 2024. In 2025, exports of timber and wood products to the US totalled $9.46 billion, up 4.4 per cent year on year and accounting for approximately 55 per cent of the industry’s total export turnover. Việt Nam continued to maintain its position as the largest supplier of wooden furniture to the US market. …Việt Nam’s market share of wooden furniture in the US increased significantly, rising from 40.5 per cent in the first eight months of 2024 to 45.3 per cent in the same period of 2025. 
In the construction industry, ideas or materials first seen on the margins of construction processes later become an established part of those processes. …And so it seems to be with Mass Timber Construction (MTC). MTC entered the construction industry as an intriguing approach to reduce embodied carbon. …Today, MTC has become a mainstream building method. Across North America, there are reportedly 2,500 MTC buildings already built or in the planning stages. Similar levels of acceptance are seen in Europe. The world’s leading architects and designers have embraced MTC by incorporating wood components into a wide range of building types and sizes, from commercial offices to housing, campuses, infrastructure and even data centres. Interest and acceptance have moved beyond the pure environmental benefits of using MTC. Economics, simple dollars and cents, are now recognized as a persuasive factor as well. This is because mass timber changes the mechanics of construction.
There are two types of suncream: chemical and physical. Chemical suncreams absorb the UV rays into heat … physical sunblocks scatter and reflect the UV rays on top of the skin. While they offer a broader spectrum of protection, their photo-catalytic nature and small particle size carry a potential risk. The synthetic compounds have adverse side effects on humans and the environment. …Wood is a material that is very effective at scattering light as a result of its cellular structure, absorbing light through one of its components, lignin. The compound is an organic polymer in the cells of many plants which makes them rigid and woody. It also offers sun protection factors (SPFs) that exceed 180. Lignin has a natural phenolic network that forms a shield against ultraviolet light, offering protection against the sun without the need for petroleum-based filters.The use of lignin as sun protection for skin is promising, particularly as a renewable and waste-free resource. 
TIANJIN, CHINA — The global movement against single-use plastics has triggered a significant transformation in the disposable tableware industry, with wood cutlery emerging as a leading alternative. As regulations tighten and consumer preferences shift toward eco-friendly options, manufacturers of disposable wooden utensils are experiencing unprecedented growth and facing new challenges in scaling production, ensuring sustainability, and meeting diverse international standards. Market analysts observe that regulatory pressure represents the primary driver for this sector’s expansion. The European Union’s Single-Use Plastics Directive, along with similar legislation in Canada, Australia, and numerous U.S. states, has created a substantial and sustained demand for compliant alternatives. Within this regulatory framework, wood, particularly from fast-growing, sustainably managed sources like birch and bamboo, has gained favor for its natural composition, biodegradability, and perceived premium feel compared to other alternatives.
Each year, the event brings together leading voices from across the global pulp value chain to examine emerging trends, innovations, and the market forces shaping the industry. The 2026 program will feature dynamic discussions on strategy, markets, technology, sustainability, supply chains, and the broader role of pulp-based materials. Speakers have the opportunity to share their insights with a highly engaged international audience. We encourage proposals and topic ideas that can deepen insight and spark meaningful dialogue. Registration for the 21st edition of IPW is now open, and you can benefit from the Early Bird rate until February 16. More details are available on the registration page.
The French Union of Timber Industries and Builders (UICB) and the French Timber Trade Association (LCB) are joining forces to create the UICCB – the Union of Construction and Timber Trade Industries. The synergy created by the merger of these two major players in the French forestry and timber sector will support the development of companies in the sector, which are naturally committed to decarbonizing the construction process. The new group took shape in December 2025 after a year of discussions and collaboration between the business leaders who head the governing bodies of the UICB and LCB. …The merger of the two entities will… enable them to acquire a stronger position within the emerging forestry and wood sector. …With this ecosystem of complementary professions, the UICCB now stands as the only independent professional organization dedicated to the development of wood construction throughout France.
Japan-based materials experts have made impressive progress in the search for a better biodegradable plastic. The breakthrough starts with an abundant material: cellulose from wood pulp. Takuzo Aida, RIKEN Center for Emergent Matter Science research lead, said in a news release that “about one trillion tons” are naturally produced annually. Using it successfully as part of a new plastic could have a widespread impact, because most types of the material take decades to hundreds of years to break down. “This technology will help protect the Earth from plastic pollution,” Aida said in the RIKEN report. …Unlike other biodegradable plastics, RIKEN’s innovation also eliminates harmful microplastics, tiny particles that have saturated our world — found in soil, oceans, and even our bodies.
Recent studies suggest that paper-based advertising may hold a more sustainable footprint than its digital counterpart. This revelation challenges the widely held assumption that ‘going paperless’ automatically equates to environmental responsibility. New data indicates that the full lifecycle impact of digital advertising – encompassing data centers, device manufacturing, and network infrastructure – generates a significantly larger carbon footprint than traditional print methods. The findings, originating from research conducted by the Öko-Institut in Germany and corroborated by analyses from The Telegraph, Emerce, and RetailTrends, highlight the often-overlooked environmental costs associated with the digital world. While paper production undeniably carries its own environmental burdens, advancements in sustainable forestry practices and paper recycling are mitigating these impacts. …Their findings consistently showed that paper-based advertising, particularly when utilizing recycled paper and responsible forestry practices, generated fewer greenhouse gas emissions than comparable digital campaigns. 
In a controversial study published in April last year, researchers described an astonishing phenomenon: a forest of Norway spruce trees (Picea abies) appeared to ‘sync’ their electrical signaling ahead of a partial solar eclipse. Now there’s a new theory about what was actually going on. Having examined the data, ecologists Ariel Novoplansky and Hezi Yizhaq from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Israel propose an explanation that’s not quite as sensational. Novoplansky and Yizhaq suggest that the electrical activity seen in the trees was caused by a temperature drop, a passing thunderstorm, and several local lightning strikes; factors that previous research has shown can trigger similar signaling responses in plants.
Ingka Investments, the investment arm of Ingka Group (IKEA’s largest retailer), has completed the acquisition of forestland from Södra in Latvia and Estonia, following the signing of the agreement announced in October 2025. The transaction is part of Ingka Investments’ strategy to invest in long‑term assets that combine financial resilience with positive impact for the Ingka Group and IKEA business, building a strong foundation for many generations to come. With the acquisition now completed, Ingka Investments will take on the role of long‑term forest owner, with the ambition to manage the forest in a responsible way, while contributing to local economic activity. …Total area included in the acquisition is 135,232 ha in Latvia, and 17,742 ha in Estonia. The purchase price of the asset was EUR 720 million. …With IKEA retail operations in 32 markets, Ingka Group is the largest IKEA retailer and represents 87% of IKEA retail sales.
HCM CITY — Proactive compliance with legal timber sourcing and sustainability standards is essential not only for business survival, but also for repositioning Việt Nam’s wood industry towards greater transparency, responsibility, and higher value creation in global supply chains, speakers said at a seminar in HCM City on January 29. Speaking at the Forest Talk & Link seminar themed “Wood Consumption, Climate Change and Deforestation-Free Requirements”, Võ Quang Hà, Chairman of the HCM City Structure Architecture Wood Association (SAWA), said Việt Nam exported more than US$17 billion worth of wood and wood products in 2025, ranking among the world’s leading furniture exporters. However, an estimated $4–5 billion in export revenue still derives from low-value wood chips and pellets, underscoring the sector’s significant untapped potential for value-added growth. Developing large-timber plantations was identified as a key solution.
Observed annually on February 2, World Wetlands Day marks the adoption of the Ramsar Convention in 1971 and provides an international framework for recognizing the role of wetlands in environmental protection and sustainable development. The 2026 edition is held under the theme “Wetlands and traditional knowledge: Celebrating cultural heritage,” drawing attention to the long-standing relationships between wetland ecosystems and the cultural practices, knowledge systems, and governance structures developed by communities over centuries. The theme highlights how inherited ecological knowledge, often embedded in rituals, seasonal calendars, land-use practices, and spatial organization, has shaped resilient interactions between human settlements and water-based landscapes. …World Wetlands Day 2026 emphasizes the need to reconsider prevailing development models by integrating traditional knowledge with scientific research and planning strategies in efforts toward conservation, restoration, and long-term environmental stewardship.
BOGOTA, Colombia — Chile is reeling from one of its most serious wildfire emergencies in years. Deadly flames sweeping across central and southern parts of the South American country have turned large swaths of forest and towns to ash. Fire scientists say the blazes are being driven not only by extreme heat, drought and wind, but also by how human-shaped landscapes interact with changing climates — a lethal mix that makes fires harder to control. …The fires have razed forests, farmland and hundreds of homes. …What distinguishes Chile’s current fire season isn’t an unusual surge in the number of fires, but the amount of land they are burning. …Miguel Castillo, at the University of Chile… “almost tripling the amount of affected area,” even though the number of fires so far is “within normal margins.” That means fewer ignitions are causing far greater damage — a pattern increasingly seen in extreme wildfire seasons around the world.
Mexico’s National Forestry Commission has issued the 2026 Rules of Operation for its Sustainable Forestry Development for Wellbeing Program, establishing requirements to access federal funding. The rules guidelines governing the allocation of public resources to strengthen sustainable forest development across Mexico. The program is structured around six support components: community forest management and sustainable value chains; commercial and agroforestry plantations; forest restoration; environmental services; forest protection; and capacity building and local development. Through these components, financial support will be provided to ejidos, Indigenous and Afro-Mexican communities, women-led forestry enterprises, and landowners of forested and preferentially forested land. Eligible projects include sustainable forest management, forest and agroforestry plantations, ecosystem restoration, conservation of environmental services, and protection against wildfires, pests, and diseases. Support also covers training and research activities, with a cross-cutting gender approach designed to strengthen women’s participation—particularly Indigenous and Afro-Mexican women—in decision-making and forestry value chains.
Negotiations between the European Commission, European Council, and European Parliament, often referred to as the “trilogue”, have reached a significant conclusion regarding the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). On December 4, 2025, an agreement was reached, which promises to ease the administrative burden on the timber industry across Europe. This marks an important milestone, with changes that significantly affect the way the sector will handle the regulation moving forward. The EUDR, designed to combat global deforestation, will now come into effect in January 2027, offering a twelve-month delay for businesses to adjust. One of the most crucial changes in the reform is the elimination of the complex process requiring the forwarding of reference numbers throughout the entire supply chain. This has been hailed as a victory by many industry leaders, including Dr. Erlfried Taurer, Chairman of the Austrian Timber Industry Association.
Canopy and Finance Earth outline strategic pathways for brands and investors to reduce virgin wood exposure and strengthen supply chain resilience. A new research brief released during the World Economic Forum warns that global wood-dependent supply chains face mounting commercial and ecological risk as rising demand, climate impacts, and regulatory pressure push forests toward ecological limits. The brief, produced by environmental non-profit Canopy with Finance Earth, argues that business-as-usual sourcing of virgin wood exposes brands and investors to higher costs, supply volatility, and growing reputational and legal risk over the decade ahead.The analysis comes as Canopy works with more than 1,000 consumer brands representing over $1.2 trillion in combined annual revenue to reduce deforestation and accelerate the adoption of circular and low-impact alternatives across sectors where wood is a primary input, including textiles and packaging.
Scots Pines once dominated the landscape of Scotland, part of the vast Caledonian Forest which began to spread some 10,000 years ago after the end of the last ice age. Now only one per cent of the original forest remains in more than 80 pockets scattered mainly across the Highlands. Conservationists say there is an urgent need to improve the protection of these forests as climate change and threats from disease intensify. A new study from the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen has revealed the environmental importance of preserving native woodlands. The research suggests the Scots pine alone supports nearly 1,600 separate species, including 227 that rely on it entirely. “Very few other tree species will support that range of biodiversity,” said Dr Ruth Mitchell, who led the study. “Species that use Scots pine include birds, mosses, lichens, fungi and invertebrates.”
Young tropical forests play a crucial role in slowing climate change. …But, according to a new study, CO2 absorption may be slowed down by the lack of a crucial element that trees need to grow: nitrogen. Published in Nature Communications … the study estimates that if 
Nature markets are systems for measuring an ecological improvement on some land, then creating a representation of that improvement as a credit, which can then be bought and sold. In theory, they allow governments to attract more private investment and diversify funds that help restore nature. The reality is much more complicated. I recently 
UK energy company Drax’s ambitions of becoming a significant wood pellet supplier to Asia are in danger of faltering as Japanese policymakers wind back generous subsidies for the biomass sector. Japan is set to soon surpass the UK as the world’s largest wood pellet importer after a post-Fukushima push to diversify power sources that caused hundreds of plants to spring up that burn wood pellets, palm kernel shells — a palm oil byproduct — and other organic materials. But policymakers in Japan are pulling support for the controversial industry after realising the hurdles to bringing down fuel costs. Tokyo has already cut subsidies for new projects of more than 10 megawatts. “The real intention is quite simple: no new government support, phasing out. We don’t see any clear path of bringing down costs in the foreseeable future,” said one government official. “Existing projects might survive but no new projects are coming.”
Boreal ecosystems store twice as much carbon as the atmosphere and warm faster than the global average. The current paradigm based on boreal forests and tundra considers that warming will accelerate boreal carbon loss. However, the warming response of Sphagnum peatlands, storing ~40% of boreal carbon stocks, remains under-investigated. …investigations into two long-term warming experiments in Finnish peatlands, we demonstrate that warming enhances soil carbon accumulation in boreal Sphagnum peatlands. This result sharply contrasts with warming-induced carbon loss from boreal forests and tundra, owing to the unique metabolic response of Sphagnum… Our estimates suggest that warming-induced increase of soil carbon in boreal Sphagnum peatlands (assuming no hydrological changes or plant species shifts) may offset nearly half the boreal forest carbon-sink decline or heterotrophic respiration increases in Arctic tundra under warming. These findings highlight the vital but overlooked role of Sphagnum peatlands in counteracting boreal carbon loss under future warming.
A door company in Ireland says it holds the key to turning wood dust into electricity to help power its factory. It’s part of a new multimillion-pound investment by O&S Doors. The company says the onsite renewable heat and energy technology is “a first on the island of Ireland”. Currently the company takes wood dust left over from the manufacturing process and ships it to England where it is used as animal bedding or sent to landfill. But the company – located just outside Benburb in County Tyrone – has revealed new details of its plans to install a biomass-fuelled combined heat and power system. It will turn the dust into millions of units of electricity that can reused to power parts of the factory. …O&S Doors says its biomass-fuelled combined heat and power system will harness MDF dust.
The energy industry initially sold wood pellets as a way to clean up coal. And governments bought into that assumption. But now policymakers are questioning that position and even reversing course. At the center of this debate is a UK-based power company called Drax, which converted Europe’s largest coal plant into a biomass facility—one fueled by wood pellets that it imported from southern states in the United States. The debate raises a multitude of questions, namely those centered on pollution and costs. That is, if the additive creates more pollution than either wind or solar energy, why bother, especially since it comes from a power source that depends on subsidies? Merry Dickinson, campaign director for the Dogwood Alliance, told me that Drax now operates entirely on woody biomass… “The amount of wood required … is beyond what is available as waste wood,” Dickinson says. “…much of the supply consists of whole trees.” [Forbes allows 4 free articles per month]
A new study has shown for the first time that waste cardboard can be used as an effective source of biomass fuel for large-scale power generation, offering a potential new domestic resource to support the UK’s renewable energy sector. Engineers from the University of Nottingham have carried out the first comprehensive characterisation of cardboard as a fuel source and developed a new method to assess its composition. The research … provides a practical tool for evaluating different grades of cardboard for use in energy production. The study found that cardboard displays distinct physical and chemical properties compared with traditional biomass fuels. These include lower carbon content, a reduced heating value and a high level of calcium carbonate fillers, particularly in printed grades. Calcium carbonate is commonly added to cardboard to improve stiffness and optical qualities, but during combustion it forms ash that can reduce boiler performance.
Running along Brazil’s coastline, the Atlantic Forest supports an extraordinary range of life, including hundreds of species of birds, amphibians, reptiles, mammals, and fishes. Much of that richness has been lost. Human development has reduced the forest to roughly one third of its original size. As people move deeper into once intact habitats, wildlife is pushed out, and mosquitoes that once fed on many different animals appear to be shifting their attention toward humans, according to a study published in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. …Scientists extracted DNA from the blood inside the mosquitoes and sequenced a specific gene that works like a biological barcode. …Mosquito bites are not just a nuisance. In the regions studied, mosquitoes spread viruses such as Yellow Fever, dengue, Zika, Mayaro, Sabiá, and Chikungunya.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric has declared a state of catastrophe in two regions where deadly wildfires have left at least 18 people dead. More than 50,000 people have also been evacuated in the Ñuble and Biobío regions, about 500km (300 miles) south of the capital Santiago. Boric said the death toll was expected to increase. The most dangerous fire has swept through dry forests bordering the coastal city of Concepción. About 250 homes have been destroyed, disaster officials said. Local media have shown pictures of charred cars in the streets. Chile’s forestry agency, Conaf, said firefighters were battling 24 fires across the country on Sunday. The most threatening, it added, were in Ñuble and Biobío. The fires have burnt through 8,500 hectares (21,000 acres) in the two regions so far.