Over the past year and a half, Tree Frog has periodically turned to political risk consultant Robert McKellar to help readers make sense of the forces reshaping the business environment for the North American forest sector. Most recently, in International Political Risk: Separating Noise From What Matters, Robert walked through how a political risk professional decides which of the world’s constant stream of headlines — tariffs, wars, trade disputes, sanctions — actually warrant a forest company’s attention, and which are just noise.
This time, Robert turns to a different, longer-running kind of risk — one that isn’t caused by any single event, but by a slow convergence of forces that can remake an entire industry over years, often without anyone recognizing it as it’s happening. Using two cases from the wood products sector — the rise of Chinese dominance in pulp and paper, and the decline of BC’s lumber industry — Robert shows how strategic risk hides in plain sight, and why it’s so often only clear in hindsight. The article closes on a practical question: if this kind of change is only clear in hindsight, how can companies improve their odds of catching it earlier? Robert’s answer is strategic risk management — less a set of day-to-day processes than a habit of thinking decades, not quarters, ahead.
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Many Canadian exporters are facing the threat of 50% duties on their goods under Section 338 tariffs. …These firms may also need to increase their customs-bond coverage, which guarantees payment of duties and fees if an importer defaults, as higher tariffs increase the US government’s exposure. But trade lawyers and customs professionals say another change could affect far more Canadian exporters… an executive order that seeks to tighten US customs enforcement to crack down on trade fraud and shell importers that evade duties. “They’re going to a stricter importer regime … directing US authorities to strengthen the importer registration, bonding, disclosure, vetting, and enforcement,” said Martha Goncalves, at PwC Canada. …“The US trying to change the global trading system, and this is just part of their playbook,” she said. “Unfortunately, we get hit hardest because we have such a big footprint of Canadian exports going to the US”
Canadian lumber company Interfor Corp. confirmed plans Friday to move corporate support functions to the United States from its Burnaby, BC headquarters. “We recently announced the transition of certain corporate support roles to our Peachtree City office in Georgia, where the majority of our operations are located within the Central, Eastern and Atlantic time zones,” Ian Fillinger, the company’s CEO, said on a conference call with analysts. “This change is intended to better align our support functions with the needs of our business while maintaining a strong corporate presence in both Canada and the United States.” …“This is not a redomiciling of the company, nor does it alter our longstanding commitment within our Canadian operations, mills, employees, or communities,” Fillinger said. “Our leadership team remains in place, and Burnaby will continue to play an important role as our corporate headquarters.” [A subscription to the National Post is required for full access]
Canada and the US are discussing a prospective deal in which Ottawa would agree to a long list of Trump administration trade demands in exchange for some relief on sectoral tariffs. According to three sources, the two sides have discussed in-depth proposals and traded written bargaining positions but an agreement has not yet been reached. …Canada would concede on a range of trade issues that the US considers the biggest bilateral trade irritants, including autos, alcohol dairy. …In return, the US. would lower sectoral levies, known as Sec. 232 tariffs, on steel and aluminum, with Ottawa also pushing for relief on autos and forest products. Canada is also hoping to avoid Trump’s latest round of threatened tariffs, scheduled to take effect in less than two weeks’ time. …The deal under discussion would represent only the first phase of trade talks and is being described as an “interim deal.” [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Hundreds of wildfires are burning across North America, putting communities, buildings, and firefighters at risk. With blazes in Washington state, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, California, Utah, and in Canada, especially in British Columbia, Ontario, and the Northwest Territories, there have been plenty of headlines about the devastation. Last month, smoke from Canadian boreal forest fires poured into the United States, triggering air quality alerts for more than 120 million Americans. …Four Republican lawmakers accused Canada of failing to do enough to prevent wildfire smoke from hitting the United States, claiming that “continued inaction” was “unacceptable.” President Donald Trump also expressed frustration. …Forest management experts say Trump is oversimplifying a much more complicated problem. The U.S. and Canada have forests that are different in structure, but both now face many of the same fire pressures, says Lori Daniels, a professor of forest and conservation sciences at the University of British Columbia. [A subscription to the National Post is required for full story access]
President Trump has made housing affordability a defining commitment of his second term by moving aggressively to build more housing. …If these efforts succeed, America could see its fastest expansion in homebuilding in decades. But a significant blind spot remains. For decades, the US has imposed import tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, constraining supply, and raising prices. …The solution is not complicated, and it is already within reach: Use the bilateral trade talks that the USMCA review has set in motion to finally resolve the US-Canada softwood lumber dispute. ..For Trump, resolving this dispute is a two-for-one win. It would secure concessions that Canada was unwilling to give during his first term, and helps the White House reduce the cost to build a home. …As conservatives, it is imperative that we demonstrate that our policy agendas materially benefit American workers. The USMCA talks remain the fastest path to making it happen.
More than two dozen US states filed a lawsuit Monday seeking to strike down President Trump’s tariffs on 60 trading partners — including Canada — over forced labour concerns, arguing he exceeded his authority. The tariffs were announced last month under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974. …But the lawsuit, filed by Oregon and 24 other Democrat-led states in the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York, argues the tariffs are simply meant to replace Trump’s previous temporary 10% global tariff that expired just as the new duties were announced. The timing “confirms that the tariff action is pretextual, arbitrary, capricious, and contrary to Section 301’s statutorily constrained purpose,” the statement of claim says. …The tariff action merely attempts to continue the president’s blanket global tariff policy, and the attempt ‘to obtain the elimination’ of forced labor in trading partners’ supply chains is pretextual, it is unlawful,” the court document says.
COWICHAN BAY, BC — Western Forest Products has announced the extension of their Cowichan Bay Sawmill curtailment until the fall. The move leaves 54 employees without work, said Brian Butler, president of United Steelworkers Local 1-1937. The Cowichan Bay workers join the 120 workers from the Chemainus Sawmill, who have been curtailed indefinitely since June 2025. “Beyond what WFP has advised about the Cowichan Bay Sawmill curtailment lasting through September, we have no information beyond that,” Butler noted. …“It remains a very difficult period of time for our members in these operations,” Butler said. …WFP spokesperson Kelly Marion said the Cowichan Bay mill closure is “in response to persistently weak market conditions.” She added that the company is continuing “to work to mitigate the impact on employees by providing work opportunities at our other operations where possible.”
SEARSMONT, Maine —Federal investigators say firefighters unknowingly used a suppression tactic that likely contributed to the deadly explosion at Robbins Lumber mill fire in Searsmont in May. The report from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) says that neither workers nor responding firefighters understood that the silo involved was designed to limit oxygen or that its contents posed a combustible dust hazard. … A preliminary investigation classified the fire as accidental and identified combustible dust as the cause of the subsequent explosion. The report says the silo was an oxygen-limiting model, which is designed to restrict the amount of air entering the structure. NIOSH said mill employees and firefighters interviewed after the explosion did not know the silo was oxygen-limiting and were unaware that the wood shavings and sawdust inside constituted a combustible dust hazard or that there were different risks with that silo as compared to other designs.
With one of the last buyers of hemlock pulpwood gone, good forest management could become too costly to sustain — putting habitat, climate resilience and rural jobs all at risk. News about the end of pulping operations at Finch Paper has focused on how it is bad for logging contractors and the forest products industry. As organizations focused on the future of Vermont forests, we agree — those impacts are significant. …This is bad news for everyone who cares about sustaining Vermont’s forests. [While commodity products are] often a goal of forest management, so are: improving wildlife habitat, biodiversity, climate resilience, recreational trails, carbon storage, protecting against pests and diseases… managing fire danger and improving the overall health and diversity of forests. Our organizations may prioritize the benefits on this list differently, but we agree on one thing: Without buyers for wood … forest management become economically difficult, or impossible, to carry out. 
NEW YORK, NY — Mercer International reported second quarter 2026 Operating EBITDA of negative $21.0 million, a decrease from negative $20.9 million in the same quarter of 2025 and positive $7.8 million in the first quarter of 2026. In the second quarter of 2026, net loss was $76.0 million compared to $86.1 million in the same quarter of 2025 and $52.0 million in the first quarter of 2026. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, Chief Executive Officer, stated: “Our pulp sales realizations remained steady this quarter, as continued economic uncertainty delayed market recovery. Our second quarter results were also weighed down by rising European fiber costs, driven by regional supply shortages and intense competition for sawmill residuals from energy producers. As a result, we recognized a non-cash impairment of $29.0 million primarily against pulp and fiber inventory.
BURNABY, BC — Interfor reported its second quarter of 2026 results. The company recorded net earnings in Q2’26 of $1.0 million, compared to a net loss of $63.3 million, and net earnings of $11.1 million in Q2’25. Adjusted EBITDA was $92.3 million on sales of $804.4 million in Q2’26 versus $30.7 million on sales of $643.2 million in Q1’26 and Adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million on sales of $780.5 million in Q2’25. ….Lumber production of 927 million board feet was up 71 million board feet versus the preceding quarter driven primarily by the ramp up of the recently rebuilt Thomaston, GA sawmill. …The Company is well positioned to navigate this volatility with a diversified product mix in Canada and the US, with approximately 65% of its total lumber produced and sold within the US Ultimately, only about 20% of the Company’s total lumber production is exported from Canada to the U.S. and exposed to duties, tariffs or other potential trade measures.
The United States’ share of Canada’s softwood lumber exports fell by 1 percentage point to 89% in January-June 2026. Canada exported 13.2 million m3, down 12%, while export value fell 26% to $2.45 billion and the average price declined 16% to $186 per m3. …Shipments to the US fell 13% to 11.7 million m3, a reduction of 1.73 million m3 from a year earlier. Export value dropped 29% to $2.02 billion, and the average price fell 18% to $172 per m3. The listed destinations with higher shipments added 77 thousand m3, equal to about 4% of the US shortfall. Declines in Japan, the Philippines, Germany and the remaining destinations totaled 128 thousand m3, leaving total non-U.S. exports down 51 thousand m3, or 3%, at 1.50 million m3. China remained Canada’s second-largest market with a 4% share. Shipments rose 3% to 525 thousand m3. Japan ranked third with a 3% share, but shipments fell 19% to 373 thousand m3. Taiwan accounted for 1.4%, the Philippines retained a 0.8% share, Mexico rose to 49 thousand m3,Germany received 33 thousand m3.
Home sales are slumping, renovation spending is losing steam and yet lumber prices have risen this summer to their highest level in four years. Back in 2022, the price of two-by-fours was falling back to earth after a record-setting spike during Covid. …This time around, reduced supply rather than unyielding demand has driven lumber prices higher. Imports are down due to steep duties on Canadian boards and President Trump’s 10% softwood lumber tariff. Meanwhile, low prices last year prompted sawmill curtailments and closures from BC to northern Florida. …Home builders… say the run-up in prices has become a headwind and will filter through to the cost of houses. Yet lumber futures, which are down about 12% from their high in late July, suggest that wood prices may have peaked for this year. …“I don’t anticipate that those mills that have been shut down are going to come back,” said Weyerhaeuser CEO Devin Stockfish. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]
Re-escalation of the conflict in Iran pushed mortgage rates higher in July. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.54% in July, up 5 basis points (bps) over June. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, the 30-year mortgage rate has climbed by almost 50 bps. The average 15-year rate averaged 5.91% in July, up 9 bps from June, and up 48 basis points since the end of February. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate remains lower by 18 bps, however, the 15-year rate is now higher by 5 bps. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, rose 10 bps to an average of 4.58% in July as renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns about energy supplies and inflation. The yield rose sharply, ending July at 4.67%, 23 bps above its June closing level.
Urban conversations in North America often seem trapped between competing visions… between detached suburban development, low-scale missing middle housing, and high-rise intensification. An alternative lies in a form of urbanism that has shaped some of the world
NORTH DAKOTA — Eric Hoffer, senior project manager at JLG Architects in Bismarck, North Dakota, says mass timber projects are surging due to updated building codes, regional supply chain advantages and a growing focus on embodied carbon — the emissions from manufacturing and transport. Despite accounting for fewer than 1% of national building projects, mass timber is one of sustainable architecture’s fastest-growing trends, with roughly 20% annual growth. “Mass timber sequesters carbon, which then acts as a carbon sink,” Hoffer explained. …The growth of mass timber construction, including cross-laminated timber (CLT) and glue-laminated timber (glulam), continues to gain momentum. Project owners are choosing mass timber for a number of reasons, including lower embodied carbon than conventional concrete and steel, faster prefabricated construction, and the warm, natural interior aesthetics it provides. …Some examples of mass timber projects in the region include the Wurth Elektronik Headquarters expansion in Watertown, South Dakota, completed this spring. 
U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that Canada is failing to properly manage its forests, and that the cost of wildfire smoke drifting south should be added to tariffs on Canadian goods, has prompted renewed questions about whether more could be done to prevent the massive blazes that have blanketed parts of North America with smoke. But wildfire experts say the answer is far more complicated. “The short answer is there’s nothing that Canada can do about these major wildfires that are causing wildfire smoke to travel thousands of kilometres,” said Anabela Bonada, managing director of climate science at the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo. …“The No. 1 thing is all of us reducing our emissions, and that goes for the U.S. as well,” Bonada said. “But we are looking at smoky summers ahead, so we need to do everything possible to protect ourselves and people that live in our home.”
The soupy, toxic fog that hung over Seattle and the Puget Sound region last week was a constant reminder of the wildfires raging across Eastern Washington. It can feel insufferable and inevitable — that the fires will burn, increasingly in every corner of the state, as the years become hotter and drier. But rather than resigning ourselves to this fate, the smoky skies should reinforce a call to action, for every Washingtonian. The wildfires that consumed neighborhoods in Spokane and enveloped forests in Chelan and elsewhere have a kind of performance-enhancing drug feeding their flames: climate change. As a society, we can choose to deny this reality, but it does little good to do so. The forecast each year will continue to be tinderbox-like conditions. We must do all we can to prepare for it. …Inaction will lead to devastation. Facing this growing risk is the only option. [to access the full story a Seattle Times subscription is required]
This fog-shrouded patch of coastal forest in the heart of Yurok Country was tended by the tribe for millennia. But in the Gold Rush era it was taken away and, later, used by the logging industry, reshaping the landscape. Now, as the land heals from the scars of a long-running lumber mill, it has been returned to its original stewards, who will operate it as a public gateway to Redwood National and State Parks about 50 miles south of the Oregon border. Save the Redwoods League in June conveyed the 125-acre property to the Yurok Tribe following a yearslong project to restore the degraded industrial site to a diverse riparian habitat. It opens to the public Saturday as ‘O Rew Redwoods Gateway, which features interpretive exhibits and trails leading to old-growth redwood groves.
MAINE — Researchers walking through the forest during a major spruce budworm outbreak in the 1990s discovered some healthy fir trees unaffected by the deadly pests, and wondered what gave them apparent immunity. They took needles from the healthy trees to study at their University of New Brunswick lab, and found they contained a fungus with a beneficial relationship with the trees. …The discovery attracted the attention of Canadian forestry conglomerate J.D. Irving, the largest owner of forested land in Maine. The partnership, which started in 1999, resulted in a novel way to combat future outbreaks: breeding budworm-resistant trees. Its strategy to use natural fungi — known as endophytes — is at the forefront of science to find more natural solutions. Several universities in the US are researching how endophytes act in other types of trees. …Irving Woodlands is ramping up production of the trees in a newly opened greenhouse in New Brunswick. 
Nine months after its first prescribed burn in 150 years, a 22-acre patch of forest on Wisconsin Point is starting to show the effects. On one side of the road to the beach, the understory, or plants growing from the ground, are tall and dense. It’s not what a healthy red pine forest should look like, said Callie Grones, an outreach coordinator with the Lake Superior National Estuarine Reserve. On the other side at the “burn unit,” the ground is a little clearer, although still very green, the bottoms of the pine trees are charred and wild blueberries are thriving. …“Ojibwe people, when they were living out here, they used fire almost in a routine,” Grones said. The forest’s health was maintained through that fire.” … Stewardship Coordinator Kirsten Rhude said it will take a few years before the full advantages of the burn appear. 
The contiguous United States sizzled to its hottest month ever last month, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. July averaged 76.89 degrees Fahrenheit across the Lower 48 states, eclipsing the Dust Bowl’s July 1936 by an eighth of a degree. Records go back to 1895 “It’s not good when you’re breaking records from the Dust Bowl,” said meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections. …The heat was so widespread that every one of the Lower 48 states was at least 1 degree Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average, said Russ Vose, chief of monitoring at NOAA. …What’s happening now is due to the burning of coal, oil and gas, scientists said. “Extremely high temperatures across the continental U.S. this summer, along with intense drought and fire conditions, are absolutely consistent with the climate change signal,’ said Katharine Jacobs, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona.
Dangerous heat is gripping parts of the United States, with more than 39 million people under heat alerts across much of the South as temperatures are expected to rise over the weekend. Temperatures in some cities have climbed above 100°F. …The “heat dome” that brought extreme heat to much of the central and eastern U.S. has shifted west and is expected to intensify before expanding into the intermountain West and northern High Plains this weekend. Parts of the Southwest are forecast to reach 110-120°F from late this week into early next week, with some locations expected to experience one of their 10 hottest days on record. Extreme heat warnings are in effect on Friday across parts of six states: Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, Oklahoma and western Arkansas. …Such levels are “dangerous for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration,” the weather service warned.
Evacuation orders are in place across parts of the Western U.S. and Southwest Canada as extremely hot and dry conditions fuel the spread of wildfires in the region. There were 183 new fires, including eight large ones, across the U.S. since Saturday, the National Interagency Fire Center reported on Sunday. More than 30,000 personnel with over 640 crews were assigned to the fires. Firefighters were battling more than 94 large fires across the country, the agency also said. …Two pilots died on Friday after their helicopter crashed while battling the Widemouth 2 Fire in Fishlake National Forest, the U.S. Forest Service confirmed Sunday. …In Oregon, a bulldozer operator identified by officials as Jason Ensign, died battling the Wrights Spring Fire, which has spread over 33,000 acres and was 0% contained as of Sunday afternoon. …In Canada, there were more than 100 active wildfires in the British Columbia. …A 
A man charged with starting one of the wildfires in Spokane, Washington, that have destroyed hundreds of buildings planned the crime for weeks and researched when the weather would be best for igniting it, police said. In an interview after his arrest, Aaron Farinacci said “fire is powerful, beautiful, and that things that go through fire experience a kind of rebirth,” Spokane County Detective Michael Drapeau wrote in a court filing Wednesday. Farinacci, 37, is charged with starting the Old Trails fire, one of three blazes in the Spokane area that have burned more than 850 buildings, destroying whole neighborhoods and streets. …Farinacci served about a decade in prison after killing his father in Mesa, Arizona, in 2010. He also shot himself. He was charged with murder but pleaded guilty in 2012 to manslaughter and aggravated assault. Farinacci’s lawyer repeatedly raised concerns about his mental health during the case.
Just three days into August, Oregon has already broken its record for its worst wildfire season on record, with more than 2 million acres burned across the state. …Oregon has seen wildfire activity surge in 2026, with the Oregon Department of Forestry counting more than 1,300 fires so far this year. Here is an update on the largest fires burning across the state:
