Kevin Mason
Tariff anxiety continues and is now refocused on the latest “deadline”. Despite all the tumult and spilt ink, markets are generally ascribing a low probability to duties actually being introduced. While tariff speculation is dominating conversations between buyers and sellers… we have heard no reports of meaningful pre-buying or “insurance” purchases. This is unsurprising given various supply-chain constraints, the high cost of working capital, and the difficultly of developing new relationships in short order. Buyers want protection against tariffs, but that isn’t going to happen because the US can’t self-supply most forest products. Buyers will pay up.
For some commodities, imports (and imports from Canada specifically) are a small part of US domestic consumption, so would be easier to replace. For others (including lumber, OSB, newsprint and uncoated mechanicals), replacing imports would be slow and expensive, allowing suppliers to pass on all—or almost all—of the tariff amount to consumers. In some cases, producers straddle the border and may be able to slow/idle Canadian operations while running their US assets at full tilt. …However, if some producers expect the tariff regime to be a mere negotiating ploy, with the possibility they could be reduced/removed over the next year, drastic actions (i.e., outright closures in Canada and/or new mills in the US) would not be taken. Everyone is trying to navigate through these times, with no easy answers other than “be prepared.”
Another questionably secured load in the bed of a truck along a San Antonio highway is stirring up conversation online. A truck was spotted carrying lumber upright with the pieces of wood skyrocketing, clearly taller than the truck itself. …A truck, avoiding state law which prohibits overhang of more than 3 feet either in front or back of a vehicle, opted to put their lumber load upright. Narrowly missing highway overhangs, the lumber appears to violate state law which says the overall height of a load hauled in Texas can’t exceed 14 feet …The beams, which protruded several feet above the back of the truck, were swaying in the wind, tied down only at a couple places at their base by a questionable and slacked set of ropes.
The vast majority—72%—of respondents to an HBSDealer poll question say the United States should not pursue a policy of aggressive growth. However, an aggressive approach has been launched —and then quickly paused. …For the home improvement industry, tariffs on Canadian lumber continue to be a central and controversial topic. …NAHB Chairman Carl Harris. “NAHB urges the administration to reconsider this action on tariffs, and we will continue to work with policymakers to eliminate barriers that make housing more costly and prevent builders from boosting housing production.” …Meanwhile, with a deeply ingrained opposition to imports subsidized by the Canadian government, the U.S. lumber industry applauds the tariffs. It also discounts the idea that increasing the tariffs on Canadian lumber imports would lead to significantly higher home prices. The US Lumber Coalition argues that softwood lumber prices are currently low and have not kept pace with general inflation.
President Trump conceded Sunday that there may be “some pain” from his sweeping tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but they will eventually lead to a new “GOLDEN AGE.” Nice of him to promise a glorious future because the pain is already unfolding. …He also included a blast at these columns for leading the “Tariff Lobby” after our editorial called his 25% across-the-board tariffs on our friends and neighbors “
BEIJING — China countered President Trump’s across-the-board tariffs on Chinese products with tariffs on select U.S. imports Tuesday, as well as announcing an antitrust investigation into Google. The Chinese response was “measured,” said John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. “I don’t think they want the trade war escalating,” he said. …This time, analysts said, China is much better prepared to counter, with the government announcing a slew of measures that cut across different sectors of the economy, from energy to individual U.S. companies. China said it would implement a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas products as well as a 10% tariff on crude oil. …China also announced export controls on several elements critical to the production of modern high-tech products. “A risk is that this is the beginning of a tit-for-tat trade war,” Stephen Dover of Franklin Templeton said.
CALIFORNIA — Home builders have avoided a price hike in materials — especially lumber — after the Trump administration said it would delay steep tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods for at least 30 days. …The temporary reprieve is good news for the construction industry, said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “In particular, Canadian lumber is an important input in home construction, finishes such as cabinets, and furniture,” Hale said, adding that this is happening at a time when the U.S. is already dealing with an ongoing housing shortage. Prior to the pause, Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, sent a letter to President Donald Trump outlining the organization’s “serious concerns” about the effects of the proposed North American tariffs. NAHB is particularly concerned about two essential building materials: softwood lumber and gypsum, which is used for drywall. More than 70% of those materials come from Canada and Mexico.
NORTH CAROLINA — International trade is complex and one of the least understood components of the globally connected world. …International trade promised cheaper goods and economic growth, and it delivered. But for many Americans, international trade came at a severe cost — the loss of good-paying jobs that helped build the middle class. The frustration isn’t just nostalgia; it’s real. However, trade is not just about economics — it also involves politics, regulations, and agreements that can create both opportunities and unexpected tensions between nations. One example of how regulations impact trade is the lumber industry. In the US, environmental regulations limit how much timber can be harvested, making production more expensive and restrictive. …When US tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber were imposed in 2017, home builders in North Carolina faced a significant hike in costs, affecting new home construction. The construction industry’s experience is not isolated. Trade wars create a domino effect that reaches far beyond political brinkmanship.
President Trump’s tariff plans threaten to raise US home construction costs, making it even more difficult for Americans already facing a tight housing market. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs have been delayed until at least March, along with a 10% levy now in effect on products from China, could make building a typical home as much as $29,000 pricier, said David Belman, a second-generation homebuilder in Wisconsin. A large portion of that increase — as much as $14,000 — would come from the tariff on Canada, said Belman. …Current lumber inventories may only last one to two months, even with demand still weak and the US not yet in its peak building season, said Dustin Jalbert at Fastmarkets. “It’s not going to take long for prices to have to start moving higher here to keep the supply chain stocked,” Jalbert said. Lumber futures in Chicago slumped 4.6% Tuesday on news of tariff delays, erasing gains from the previous two sessions.
This opinion piece is by the following groups: Central Utah Water Conservancy District, Salt Lake City Department of Public Utilities, Weber Basin Water Conservancy District, Mountain Regional Water Special Service District, Metropolitan Water District of Salt Lake & Sandy, Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District, Summit County, and World Resources Institute. After another catastrophic wildfire season in the West, it is clear that Utah can no longer put off needed investments to protect our forests and critical sources of drinking water. The consequences of delaying these essential investments grow yearly and the stakes have never been higher. …These fires are a wake-up call. Infrastructure costs should not fall on water ratepayers alone. While Utah water utilities and our partners have made progress in reducing wildfire risks in key watersheds, the wildfire crisis demands even greater levels of collaboration and funding — and both are needed now from Utah’s state Legislature.
PIEDMONT TRIAD, N.C. — North Carolina has seen a rising number of wildfires recently, including two here in the Triad just last week. The North Carolina Forest Service is the agency responsible for getting those fires out, but lately it’s been difficult to do so. That’s due to the large number of vacancies across the department. “When we’re the lead agency for wildfire response, this isn’t a forest you want 100 positions consistently unfilled,” Philip Jackson, Public Information Officer for the N.C. Forest Service, said. It’s an issue the agency has been having for some time. “It’s [vacancies] pretty evenly distributed throughout all three regions across the state,” Jackson said. “You’re looking at about 30-35 unfilled positions in all three regions.”
To formally pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement, the Trump administration will need to formally submit a withdrawal letter to the United Nations, which administers the pact. The withdrawal would become official one year after the submission. The formal withdrawal of the United States and subsequent changes to agreements under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change cannot be transmitted to the United Nations until President Trump’s nominee to be US Ambassador to the UN, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), is confirmed by the Senate. …The withdrawal raises key questions about the future of the voluntary carbon market (VCM), particularly in light of the Paris Climate Accords’ role in driving offset demand. …Without the federal endorsement of climate goals, corporate strategies might shift away from investing in carbon offsets, diminishing demand for carbon credits. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding federal support could delay or derail the development of new VCM projects.
Biochar, a charcoal-like material derived from plant biomass, has long been hailed as a promising tool for carbon dioxide removal. However, a new study by Stanford researchers highlights a critical issue: current methods for assessing biochar’s carbon storage potential may significantly undervalue its true environmental benefits. The paper points the way to more accurately evaluating biochar, and boosting its credibility as a climate change solution. The research challenges conventional durability metrics and proposes a more nuanced framework for evaluating biochar projects. It grew out of an early project looking at soil’s ability to capture carbon dioxide. …By reanalyzing the largest existing biochar durability dataset, the researchers uncovered that relying solely on hydrogen-to-carbon ratios ignores critical factors such as soil type, environmental conditions, and biochar feedstock variability. Without these factors, models often fail to predict real-world outcomes for carbon storage and benefits to soil health and crops.
