Kevin Mason
The headline numbers coming out of the US continue to point to a robust economy, but the K-shaped bifurcation between income brackets is undeniable. The steady decline (and recent collapse) in real disposable income is concerning. There are many factors that contribute to an individual’s disposable income. Rising energy costs have been a big factor of late (gas prices predominantly), but disposable income was in decline far before its recent dip into negative territory. Inflation has outstripped wage growth in many parts of the private sector, with households often having to tap into savings and/or take on debt to support spending. Another challenge has been high interest rates, and that shows up in the housing market (as well as autos).
…After showing impressive resilience through the first four months of the year, US housing starts capitulated in May, slumping to a seasonally adjusted 1.18MM units (their lowest level since May 2020 at the onset of the pandemic). Single-family starts came in at 882,000, off by 2% m/m and 7% y/y, while multifamily activity was off by a whopping 40% m/m and 14% y/y at just 295,000. That adjusted multifamily number was the lowest reading since November 2024 and came as a shock after multis had decisively outperformed singles through the first four months of the year (averaging an adjusted 478,000 over that period). …To round off a dismal month, home sales data for May gave little reason for optimism. Looking first at new home sales, May’s total of 580,000 (adjusted) was off 7% both m/m and y/y.
The Trump administration’s decision to forgo renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on the July 1 deadline has opened a new front in the ongoing trade war — and one with direct consequences for US homebuilders and the mortgage professionals who serve them. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on Wednesday that the three countries met virtually for the required joint review and that the US declined to extend the agreement in its current form. The USMCA remains in effect until 2036 but will now be subject to annual reviews that could force significant renegotiation of major sections of the treaty, a development that has rattled an already strained construction supply chain. …Canadian softwood lumber already carries a combined duty burden of 45%. That cost has steadily compressed builder margins even as new home demand remains sluggish and housing starts have declined every year since their 2021 peak.
The Trump administration surprised no one with its long-expected announcement Wednesday that the U.S. would not join Canada and Mexico in extending the free trade deal between the three countries. Where things go from here, however, with renegotiating the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement is anyone’s guess. One thing is certain: the deal remains in effect while the negotiations happen, as it doesn’t expire for another 10 years. The only circumstance that would change that is an official six-month notice of withdrawal, something Trump has stopped short of threatening to do. Domestic political concerns keep the White House from scrapping the trade agreement, according to Simon Lester, a trade expert at Rice University in Houston, Texas. He says CUSMA has broad support from Republicans in Congress, particularly those from agricultural states. …On paper, according to the text of CUSMA, the three sides could now enter a perpetual series of renegotiations every year.
Corporate bosses are more relaxed about tariffs now than at any time since US President Trump’s return to power unleashed a spate of trade policy chaos. The share of corporate earnings calls in which tariffs were mentioned has fallen to the lowest level since Mr. Trump won the 2024 election, according to an analysis of transcripts. …The same pattern has played out on both sides of the border, even though companies have plenty of reasons to remain anxious on the trade front. The USMCA is set to enter uncharted territory on July 1. …Steep sectoral duties remain in place. …Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is expected to launch a wave of hefty tariffs next month to replace temporary duties he imposed after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his earlier emergency tariffs. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
WASHINGTON – President Trump said he hasn’t decided whether he will sign a bipartisan housing bill, dismissing the landmark affordable housing legislation as “a big yawn” and “so unimportant” compared to an unrelated bill he supports to overhaul voting in elections. Trump told reporters on Monday, June 29 that he won’t make a decision on The 21st Century Road to Housing Act until it arrives on his desk. The president abruptly canceled a signing ceremony last week for the housing bill and said he won’t sign it until Congress passes the SAVE America Act ‒ a stalled bill he backs that would require photo identification and proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections and prohibit universal mail-in voting across the country. …The housing bill is the first major piece of legislation that passed Congress in more than three decades to address the nation’s affordable housing crisis.
A sprawling legislative package aimed at lowering the cost of housing and spurring more home construction won bipartisan approval from Congress this week, but it’s hit a major roadblock in becoming law: President Trump. The White House supported the 
The European Union has formally removed its remaining tariffs on American wood-based industrial products after the European Parliament approved legislation implementing the long-awaited 
The U.S. goods trade deficit is widening, the Commerce Department said Friday, suggesting stockpiling ahead of higher tariffs and a continued reliance on imports for the domestic data center rollout, analysts say. The goods trade deficit for May jumped more than $20 billion to $105.8 billion, up from $83 billion in April, according to 
A closely watched inflation report is set to reveal how much price growth picked up in May — and whether many American consumers remain mired in an affordability crunch. Wall Street forecasters expected the pace of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) to have quickened compared with April data amid higher oil prices and stronger consumer spending. The monthly PCE report is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has said the central bank is committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target — a level it has failed to reach for the past five years. Wall Street now anticipates the Fed will raise its key interest rate at least once by year’s end in a bid to counteract the stronger price growth.
China remains one of the world’s major importers of softwood logs and lumber, but its 
A new federal rule will tighten hazardous-air-pollutant standards for plywood and composite wood products plants, including dryers, presses, refiners and lumber kilns. The 
ATLANTA — At 
The U.S. Forest Service published the results of a six-city study delving into consumers’ participation in urban wood systems and their interest in urban wood products. According to the Forest Service, for the past 20 years, approximately twice as many trees were removed annually from urban areas in the United States as has been harvested annually from the U.S. National Forest System. Yet, most of this urban wood is treated as waste instead of as a valuable resource to generate economic growth and sustainable cities. The waste and underutilization of this neighborhood resource has been countered by a growing movement to divert urban wood from the waste stream and utilize this significant resource in an array of wood products, from high-end furniture to construction grade lumber to wood chips. Using removed wood for valuable products both avoids substantial waste disposal fees and can be a foundation of profitable businesses and markets. 
The Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) announced Monday a 10-year extension of the Indian Trust Asset Reform Act (ITARA) Demonstration Project, a program that allows participating tribes to exercise greater authority over the management of forest trust lands and surface leasing activities. The extension … continues a federal initiative designed to give tribes more control over the management of their trust assets while reducing federal oversight and bureaucracy. Under the program, tribes engaged in forest land management or surface leasing on trust lands may develop an Indian Trust Asset Management Plan. Approved plans allow tribes to establish their own forestry and surface leasing regulations and assume certain approval authorities that would otherwise remain with the Department of the Interior. …Officials said the extension reflects the department’s continued support for tribal self-governance and recognition of tribal expertise in managing forest trust assets.
A new lawsuit challenging a logging project in Oregon threatens to unravel the management plans governing hundreds of millions of acres of federal public land. At stake are thousands of leases and permits covering billions of dollars of economic activity — including mining, drilling, grazing, logging, ski resorts, wind and solar projects, outdoor recreation, hunting and fishing. If successful, the lawsuit could throw the management of huge swaths of the West into chaos. Some experts fear the new legal uncertainty around federal agencies’ management authority could unleash a tsunami of lawsuits targeting everything from mining to the conservation of wildlife habitat. “When you throw that whole system into chaos, it’s a problem whether you’re the oil and gas industry or the timber industry,” said Susan Jane Brown, the attorney who filed the lawsuit and serves as principal at Silvix Resources, a nonprofit environmental law firm.
Forest fires now burn ten times more acreage annually than in 1985, while wildfire severity has gotten even worse. In California, 30 times more acreage burned from high-severity, forest-killing fires, according to new UCLA research. In the 1980s and 1990s, California’s forest fires burned mostly at low or moderate severity, generally benefiting ecosystems. But as fires have grown in size, severe fires causing widespread tree death have overtaken beneficial fire as the most common fire type in California’s forests. Changes are tied to the increasingly warm and arid environment. These aridity-driven changes were also stronger in more densely forested areas, said senior author Park Williams. …The two main causes for the increase in fire severity are fuel density [and] environmental dryness. …The researcher’s conclusions show that the state can make some headway in protecting California’s forests with changes in forest management, such as doing more manual clearing of underbrush and conducting more prescribed burns.
PHOENIX — New technology is coming to Arizona to predict flooding and prevent wildfires. Moisture sensors are going in the ground to gauge just how dry the land is. Soil that is too dry cannot absorb water, which creates a higher risk for flooding and wildfires. This advancement should help predict wildfires and flooding across Arizona. Salt River Project (SRP) officials say plant moisture, in both dead and alive plants, is one of the most important indicators of wildfire danger. However, taking field samples by hand is tough, so this new technology will do the heavy lifting. SRP crews in the Tonto National Forest are planting tiny pieces of technology in the ground to provide data. …These moisture measurements should provide important clues, like the risk of a wildfire at a given location, how likely it is to spread, how big it might get, and predicting floods.
LONDON — The United States accounted for about a third of the rise in global carbon emissions in 2025, as higher gas prices pushed power producers back to coal, an Energy Institute report showed. Highlights from the report include:
Ithaca, NY — Forests and land play an important role in absorbing carbon dioxide emissions, but current models and forecasts don’t incorporate a new and surprising ecological discovery: Despite more available carbon, climate change and warmer temperatures are slowing forest growth. A new study considers for the first time the impact of the discovery on climate models, finding that one of the most-used land models for determining the impacts of climate change may overestimate forests’ future potential for carbon storage by as much as 30%. “Knowing how well the land will be able to keep taking up carbon in the future is really important,” said first author Brendan Clark. “But the land models are probably underestimating the effects of hotter, drier air on actual growth.” …Clark first learned about the new ecological findings from co-author and ecologist Shan Kothari, at the University of Alberta, and immediately wondered how they might impact climate models. 
