Mathieu Wener, Economist with Numera Analytics, presented PPPC and Numera’s latest data and forecasts on global tissue demand, wood-free paper, and boxboard markets, with a closing focus on China’s growing role as an exporter of finished paper and board products.
Mathieu Wener
His presentation painted a picture of a global industry in which aggregate growth continues but is increasingly uneven — slowing in mature markets, shifting in China from domestic consumption to export-driven production, and facing a demographic headwind in North America that will cap the upside for years to come. Global tissue demand grew 1.3% in the first two months of 2026 — the weakest pace since the post-COVID destocking period of 2021, and a slowdown from both last year’s pace and the decade-long trend.
The May newsletter has these headlines and more:
The highly anticipated summit between US President Trump and his Chinese host Xi Jinping has begun – and Europe is watching from a distance. Yet, whatever the outcome is, there is little Brussels can be optimistic about. For Europe, the Trump-Xi summit is not just about US-China relations. It’s about whether the European Union ends up squeezed between two superpowers cutting tactical deals over trade, technology, energy and security – while European interests are treated as secondary (if at all). In fact, Europe might be watching the summit from a lose-lose position. The most immediate concern in Brussels and Berlin is probably nothing less than industrial survival – and it comes in the form of rare earths. …European officials fear a US-China arrangement could prioritize American access to Chinese rare earths while Europe remains vulnerable to shortages and export restrictions — effectively making it collateral damage.
PORTLAND, Oregon — Green Building Initiative (GBI) is announcing the planned departure of its CEO, Vicki Worden. Worden is leaving to take a new CEO role after serving as GBI’s chief executive since 2015. GBI is an international nonprofit organization and ANSI accredited standards developer that operates virtually with a 30-member staff. …Sumayyah Theron, Chair of GBI’s Board of Directors and CEO and Founder of Avant-garde Sustainable Solutions, said “Under Vicki’s leadership, GBI evolved from a US-focused organization into a truly global presence, now serving members in more than 20 countries. Her vision and dedication helped GBI’s green building standards reach more than one billion square feet of certified commercial and multifamily space worldwide.” …Worden’s departure is slated for late June 2026, and a consulting firm will be engaged to manage the search for Worden’s permanent replacement. …For the transition period, GBI’s Board has appointed The Honorable Stephen T. Ayers, FAIA, as GBI’s Interim CEO.
US President Donald Trump’s administration on Monday asked a US court to pause its ruling against the administration’s 10% global tariff while the federal government pursues an appeal. Last week, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the president’s 10% temporary global duties were unjustified under a 1970s trade law. But the court only blocked the levies for two private importers and the state of Washington. The court ruled that Trump’s imposition of the tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was misguided. In February, Trump imposed the so-called global tariff of 10 per cent after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down some tariffs the U.S. president had implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. CUSMA-compliant Canadian exports heading to the U.S. were exempt from the global tariff.
President Trump said federal agencies “must buy American”, doubling down on his push to prioritize the use of products manufactured, developed and produced in the US. …Government agencies are generally required to buy American-made products under the Buy American Act of 1933, which mandates that federal agencies acquire domestic end products for public use. However, there are several exceptions to the law including unreasonable cost, product unavailability and if domestic preference would be inconsistent with the public interest. Trump has long criticized government agencies for signing too many waivers. In a March executive order entitled “Ensuring Truthful Advertising of Products Claiming To Be Made in America,” Trump pushed forward efforts to crack down on false claims of American-made products.
WASHINGTON, Georgia — A sawmill that once stood as the largest east of the Mississippi River in the 1990s has reopened, offering relief to Georgia’s timber industry as it struggles with mill closures, Hurricane Helene damage and recent wildfires. Wilkes Lumber has brought the old mill back online in Washington, a small mill town surrounded by endless pines along Highway 78. The facility is already operating in phase one with about 50 workers, with more hiring expected as phase two comes online in the next few weeks. The mill shut down because of the cost and capability of getting rid of chips, according to Mack Winfrey. …At a time when Georgia’s timber industry is fighting to hold on, Washington is getting back something it lost a quarter-century ago: jobs, a market and a little more hope.
FLORIDA — On the heels of Escambia County adopting an ordinance to establish an Economic Development Ad Valorem Tax Exemption (EDATE) for West Fraser, the sawmill company announced a $70.25 million expansion, creating 30 new jobs. The board voted to approve the ordinance, which will give the Canada-based lumber company a 70% ad valorem tax exemption for a period of five years. Shortly after the vote, FloridaWest Economic Development Alliance announced that West Fraser has invested $70,250,000 in capital expenditures to expand its existing sawmill operation in McDavid. …The project is expected to generate substantial economic activity across Escambia County, supporting local suppliers, contractors and service providers. …Over the next five years, the estimate of the taxable value lost to the county is $70,252,000 improvements to real property, and $3,400,000 to tangible personal property.
NEW YORK — Mercer reported first quarter 2026 Operating EBITDA of $7.8 million, a decrease from $47.1 million in the same quarter of 2025 and an increase from negative $20.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, net loss was $52.0 million compared to $22.3 million in the same quarter of 2025 and $308.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, CEO, stated: “Our pulp sales realizations showed resilience this quarter as softwood pulp markets held steady, while hardwood pulp performance trended upward on favorable demand-supply dynamics. However, elevated fiber costs across our supply chain and a slower-than-anticipated recovery in prices continued to weigh on our results. …Mass timber momentum continues to build, backed by an order book and commitments of $171 million that support a multi-year production plan. …European softwood pulp prices increased compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 due to supply constraints, although these gains were offset by higher discounts.
VANCOUVER, BC — Canfor Corporation reported its first quarter of 2026 results. …The Company reported an operating loss of $72.5 million for the current quarter, compared to an operating loss of $415.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. After taking into consideration a $20.0 million reversal of a previously recognized inventory write-down, the Company’s adjusted operating loss was $92.5 million for the first quarter of 2026, compared to an adjusted operating loss of $145.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. These results largely reflected improved performance in both the lumber segment and, to a lesser extent, the pulp and paper segment. Canfor’s President and CEO, Susan Yurkovich, said, “While we saw an improvement in results, largely due to a supply-driven uptick in North American lumber pricing and higher production levels, demand remained relatively subdued. …Global pulp markets continued to face significant headwinds during the first quarter, with pulp producer inventories remaining elevated.”
At a time when the nation is facing a severe housing shortage, more multistory apartment buildings would offer more homes to more people. And there’s a big added benefit: Residents would be much safer from fires. A new study by 
A panel at the 2026 SFI Annual Conference — Leveraging SFI Certification for Global Reporting Frameworks and Market Assurances — took on one of the more pressing questions facing the forest sector: as global disclosure frameworks multiply and investors demand quantifiable outcomes, does forest certification still do the job? Shenandoah Johns, Chief Environment and Sustainability Officer at West Fraser, walked through five major disclosure frameworks that have arrived in the last five years and identified the gap between what certification was designed to demonstrate and what regulators are now asking for. Paige Goff, VP Sustainability at Domtar, made the case for not overcomplicating what is already working. Kirsten Vice, Senior VP Sustainability and Canadian Operations at NCASI, framed 2026 as a year of influence — with key nature-related frameworks being finalized — and called on the sector to shape its own targets before others do it for them. Jason Metnick, President of SFI, moderated.
The Bureau of Land Management has repealed the Conservation and Landscape Health Rule, commonly referred to as the Public Lands Rule, which put conservation on equal footing with mining, logging, and grazing of public lands. The rule required science-based decision-making, conservation considerations within multiple land uses and a focus on sustaining public lands for the long-term benefit of wildlife and the American people. “Today’s repeal of the Public Lands Rule abandons progress at the same moment climate change, chronic drought and accelerating habitat loss demand better stewardship from BLM,” said Maddy Munson, senior planning and policy specialist for federal lands at Defenders of Wildlife. …“This fits a pattern of brazen attempts to sell off and sell out our shared public lands at the expense of public access and conservation,” added Beau Kiklis, associate director of energy and landscape conservation at the National Parks Conservation Association.
WASHINGTON — The Intertribal Timber Council (ITC) expressed deep disappointment following the European Commission’s release of its EUDR simplification review, saying the package offers no meaningful relief for Indigenous Tribal Nations and leaves major concerns raised by Tribal forest managers unresolved. Despite months of engagement from Tribal representatives and repeated warnings about unintended impacts on Indigenous communities, the Commission declined to reopen the regulation and instead proposed only limited technical adjustments through implementing acts, FAQs, and guidance documents. As a result, compliance obligations affecting Tribal Nations in low-risk countries remain fundamentally unchanged. …US Tribal Nations manage 7.8 million hectares of forestland under sovereign governance systems. …The ITC is calling on the European Commission to recognize Tribal forests in the United States as low-risk, legally protected systems.
…I recently wrote about how the Trump administration’s efforts to reorganize the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service and shutter 57 of its 77 research and development (R&D) facilities isn’t really about efficiency—it’s about hollowing out another science agency whose mission is to protect people, places, and livelihoods. The Forest Service has since updated its website to qualify that these R&D closures are “possible” but not a foregone conclusion. Yet, as details emerge, one thing is painfully clear: this plan would dismantle the world’s premier—and largest—wildfire research agency when wildfire risk, climate impacts, and economic losses are accelerating. Given increasing severity of wildfires, losing this research would diminish our understanding of managing forests under climate change. Trump’s plans to end climate studies, allowing forest fuel loads to build and diseases to spread, leaves our hands tied as we try to prevent wildfires without the benefit of evidence-based science.
A new direction in the Tongass management plan gathered more than 300 comments from Southeast Alaskans, who asked the U.S. Forest Service to manage timber and mining, along with recreation, in the forest they call home. The Coeur Alaska Kensington Mine said the revised plan should recognize the Tongass National Forest as a mining district, not solely as a timber or conservation reserve. “The revised Forest Plan should affirm that responsible mineral exploration and development are fully compatible with ecological stewardship, subsistence values, and multiple use when properly planned and regulated,” wrote Steve Ball, general manager of the mine. He also wrote Forest Service’s Roadless Area Conservation Rule prohibitions should not be applied to mining operations. Others criticized the Trump administration and made a plea to protect old-growth forests and the wildlife that live there. Some criticized the Forest Service itself for a rushed process.
EUGENE Ore. – The Bureau of Land Management has proposed increasing timber harvest on 2.4 million acres of federal forest land in Oregon, sparking a renewed debate over logging, wildfire risk and the future of old growth forests. The plan would return harvest levels to 1 billion board feet annually on O&C Lands (Oregon and California Railroad Revested Lands), about four times last year’s yield. Supporters say it would restore jobs and reduce fire danger. Environmental groups warn it could undo decades of protections and say they will challenge the plan in federal court. The O&C Lands are checkerboarded across western Oregon. Once owned by railroad barons, the government reclaimed the land over 100 years ago and opened it up to logging. After new environmental protections were implemented in the 1990s, logging levels plummeted. Last year those same lands yielded about a quarter of the proposed target.
LAKE TAHOE BASIN, Calif. – A yearlong investigation by Mother Jones is casting new scrutiny on the use of glyphosate in California forests at the same time the U.S. Forest Service Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit plans to use the controversial herbicide across thousands of acres in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Glyphosate, commonly sold under the brand name Roundup, is widely used to kill shrubs and hardwood vegetation that compete with replanted conifers after fires and logging operations. However, the herbicide has long been controversial. In 2015, the cancer research arm of the World Health Organization classified glyphosate as a “probable carcinogen,” and manufacturer Bayer has paid more than $12 billion in settlements tied to lawsuits alleging the herbicide caused cancer.
The American Forest Resource Council warns that Washington’s Department of Natural Resources is headed for deep budget trouble that will result in state worker layoffs and force taxpayers to foot more of the bill to keep the agency running. Counties that rely on logging revenue from land the agency manages could be at financial risk, too. While it’s become common for the group to clash with the department, they’re not the only ones complaining. Foresters inside the agency are pointing to Public Lands Commissioner Dave Upthegrove’s decision to pause some timber sales for eight months as a reason for the looming deficit in a key operating account, which covers many of the department’s expenses for managing timberland. …Upthegrove and other agency leadership say … it has less to do with recent timber sale activity on state land and more to do with the timing of when logging revenue reaches the agency. 
Oregon’s congressional Democrats on Wednesday warned that federal agencies tasked with helping prevent and fight fires in the Northwest could be understaffed and underprepared going into the 2026 fire season. Oregon’s U.S. Sens. Ron Wyden, Jeff Merkley, and Portland and Willamette Valley-area U.S. Reps. Suzanne Bonamici and Andrea Salinas left a Wednesday wildfire season briefing at the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center in Portland with “deep concerns” about federal agencies’ capacity to respond to what’s expected to be a long and severe fire season in the region. The center is the headquarters for a wildfire prevention and response network that includes nine state and federal agencies across the West. The lawmakers said budget cuts and the loss of staff at federal science and land management agencies — especially at the U.S. Forest Service, tasked with the largest share of federal wildland fire prevention and response — have created needless uncertainty and chaos.
LAKE TAHOE, Calif./Nev. – An annual aerial survey that monitors forest health was significantly reduced in 2025 due to a lack of funding, resulting in many portions of California forests, including the Tahoe area, not being included. Since 2006, the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region’s Aerial Survey Program has flown over California forests every year to observe and document tree mortality, defoliation, and other damage. These annual estimates capture tree mortality patterns and trends, which researchers and foresters use to monitor ecosystem disturbances often caused by insects and disease. The information is also important for fire behavior forecasting. Typically covering large swaths of California landscape and a majority of national forests in California, including the Tahoe National Forest and the Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit, 2025’s survey was limited to Southern California forests and the far southern Sierra Nevada. The report states surveys were conducted in areas where 2025 drought conditions were most severe.
El Niño is emerging even faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean and odds are increasing that it could become historically strong — a rare “Super” El Niño — by fall or winter. This is according to a just-released update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center that says there is a 2 in 3 chance that El Niño’s peak strength will be strong or very strong. El Niño is a natural climate cycle that happens when the tropical Pacific Ocean warms enough to trigger shifts in wind patterns throughout the atmosphere, which has a ripple effect on weather conditions worldwide. Droughts and heat waves can flourish in some regions, fueling wildfire danger and water supply concerns, while others are swamped by flooding rainfall. El Niño’s far-reaching effects can also stymie the Atlantic hurricane season. On a larger scale, it causes already rising global temperatures from human-caused climate change to spike even higher. Stronger El Niños make all these impacts more likely.
Many US pellet exporters are evaluating new potential markets abroad to diversify their portfolios and adjust to evolving policy landscapes. At the same time, other countries around the world are increasing production and use of wood pellets as a coal replacement for power generation, as well as renewable heating option for residential heating systems and industrial utilization. From Vietnam to smaller markets such as Poland, global wood pellet production continues to grow. …US manufacturers produced over 11 million tons of wood pellets in 2025, including premium and utility pellets. A majority of that volume was exported—an estimated total of 9.37 million tons last year. Globally, pellet producers are experiencing a tug of war between increased biomass use due to decarbonization efforts and increased scrutiny from programs such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation and other countries’ evolving policy mechanisms. …Finding new substantial markets for US pellets may prove to be a challenge. 
Three years ago, two big new wood-pellet manufacturing plants were proposed along the Washington coast — the first of their kind in the Pacific Northwest. The British utility Drax planned a facility in Longview next to the Columbia River. Another company, Pacific Northwest Renewable Energy Project (PNWRE), proposed a similar plant in Hoquiam, Grays Harbor County. These plans are now unraveling. Last year, Drax suspended work on its Longview plant, citing weak demand for wood pellets it planned to export to overseas power plants. The year before, Enviva, Drax’s biggest competitor declared bankruptcy… What we’re learning is the wood pellet industry can’t compete without extensive subsidies. …These adverse economic headwinds should serve as a warning sign… Most likely, the project will fail economically, saddling Grays Harbor with a costly cleanup project instead of providing the promise of new jobs or local revenue. It would be better to cut our losses now — before this doomed project is built. [A Seattle Times subscription is required for full access]
OSCODA COUNTY, Mich. — Crews are working to contain a wildfire in Oscoda County after it prompted evacuations Monday. The wildfire is about 100 acres and primarily on national forest land around Camp Ten Road near Lost Sky Ranch. Residents living near Camp 10 Road were evacuated to a shelter Monday afternoon, but were able to return home several hours later. Monday night officials said two structures were destroyed and the fire was about 80 percent contained. …A Red Flag Warning is in effect for parts of Michigan due to critical fire weather, including high winds, low humidity and dry vegetation.