Derek Nighbor
With over 200,000 direct jobs at stake, sector calls on the government of Canada to bring the same urgency to lumber as it has to steel, aluminum, and energy.
Canada’s forest sector is disappointed that yesterday’s discussions in Washington concluded without relief for 232-affected sectors, including lumber, as the long-standing Softwood Lumber dispute and recently applied tariffs on Canada’s wood manufacturing industry continue to put operations and jobs at risk across the country. While we recognize that the talks were described as substantive and appreciate that these negotiations are complex, after eight years of escalating duties on softwood lumber, the lack of tangible progress for forest sector workers and communities is deeply concerning. With more than 200,000 direct jobs and hundreds of towns and cities across Canada depending on a vibrant forest sector, lumber and forest products must be treated as a greater priority in Canada–U.S. trade discussions.
Our industry continues to face unjustified duties and tariffs that harm forestry workers here at home and raise costs for American families building and renovating their homes. We urge the Government of Canada to ensure that lumber and forest products are clearly on the agenda as talks continue this week. “We simply want to see more urgency, and frankly, we were left wanting more in the post-meeting reports coming out of yesterday’s discussions,” said Derek Nighbor, President and CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada.
The US is now collecting tariffs on imported timber, lumber, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, duties that threaten to raise the cost of renovations and deter new home purchases. …Trump described his wood and furniture tariffs as helping to “strengthen supply chains… and increase domestic capacity utilization for wood products.” Yet 
President Trump has warned of disaster if the Supreme Court overturns his signature tariffs. For starters, it would unleash a bureaucratic nightmare involving reams of refund paper checks. Should the court uphold a US Court of Appeals ruling that Trump’s country-based tariffs are illegal, the government could owe the bulk of the $165 billion in duties collected so far this fiscal year back to companies that paid them. But they won’t have an easy time getting their money back; refunds are typically issued slowly and while the administration could streamline the process, experts fear that’s unlikely. …That means Trump likely won’t part with the funds easily if the tariffs are struck down, and the administration is expected to move quickly to reimpose levies using other legal authorities if that happens. The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments in November in the case.
WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Carney is set to return to Ottawa today with no deals to remove US tariffs from Canadian goods, but he’s leaving his key minister on Canada-US trade behind to keep pressing the Canadian case. US President Trump lavished praise on Carney during a meeting in the Oval Office on Tuesday and said the prime minister would walk away “very happy.” The president showed no signs of relenting on tariffs, however, and no deal was announced. Carney was scheduled to have a working breakfast this morning with Joshua Bolten, CEO of the Business Roundtable, while Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand was set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will be staying behind in Washington. LeBlanc told reporters Tuesday that substantial progress was made in the White House talks this week.
TORONTO – United Steelworkers union National Director Marty Warren issued the following statement as Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Washington, D.C., to meet with US President Trump. …“Canada’s softwood lumber industry is on the brink of collapse. Thousands of workers and entire communities are hanging by a thread while Trump’s tariffs deindustrialize our economy and threaten good jobs across the country. We need urgent action – not more concessions. If free and fair trade in strategic sectors cannot be restored, the federal government must be ready to retaliate and take all necessary measures to protect the integrity of Canadian industrial production and employment. …We cannot allow foreign producers to use Canada as a back door for cheap, dirty, or diverted imports. …If Washington wants access to our market, it must come with respect for fair trade and for the workers who keep our economy running.”
The Trump administration and its advocates have long sold tariffs as a smart and necessary way to reindustrialize the country, bolster national security, and revitalize the economy more broadly. In practice, however, they put tariffs on cabinets and sofas for “national security” reasons, exempt others because of potential political blowback, and do all sorts of other things that likely undermine the economic and security objectives the administration says its tariffs are achieving. And they do it all with little regard for the facts, economics, or law. Throw in some foolish nostalgia (contra the president, furniture manufacturing is today a tiny share of North Carolina’s economy and workforce), and the furniture tariffs make for an almost-perfect example of the canyon between protectionist rhetoric and US tariff reality. The only thing preventing perfection is that there isn’t a “national emergency” or fake “fiscal crisis” attached.
Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet in mid-October, approaching monthly highs as markets priced in tighter near-term supply and looming trade restrictions. Under newly announced US Section 232 tariffs that take effect on October 14th, imported softwood lumber will face a 10% duty and finished wood goods such as cabinets and furniture will face higher levies, prompting importers to front-load purchases and draw down inventories. Domestic output is also constrained as sawmills run cautiously after years of underinvestment, logging curbs in sensitive regions and slow capacity restarts have limited production. The cost and delay of switching suppliers is material given that Canadian lumber, which supplies much of US demand, already carries elevated antidumping and countervailing duties, intensifying the supply squeeze.
North America’s softwood lumber market looks likely to end 2025 no more settled than it was at the beginning. Producers and buyers alike continue navigating a landscape shaped by fluctuating demand, shifting trade patterns, and an uncertain housing outlook. Despite modest production declines in early 2025, the lumber market remains oversupplied. Mills across the US and Canada are contending with high inventories built up earlier in the year. Expectations of tariff hikes spurred an early rush of exports from Canada to the US, flooding the market while demand was soft. However, in the first half of 2025 softwood lumber exports from Canada to the US declined, while US imports from Europe in the first seven months of 2025 increased by 6% year-over-year. Underlying these supply pressures is a US housing market stuck in the doldrums. August saw an 8.5% decline in overall housing starts, with single-family construction down nearly 7%.
President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on imported lumber and wood products that his administration says are needed to protect the US economy and boost domestic manufacturing. Starting Oct. 14, softwood lumber will face 10% duties, while kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and other finished wood goods will be hit with 25% tariffs that rise further in January. The biggest blow will fall on Canada, the US’s top lumber supplier, whose lumber exports are already subject to separate duties totaling 35.19%. …Though Canada dominates exports of lumber to the US, many other countries export wood products to the US. The Section 232 tariffs on lumber and wood products affect them in varying ways; some countries benefit from trade deals with the US that cap the rates, and others bear the full brunt. …Though lumber accounts for less than 20% of building costs, the National Association of Homebuilders has long said that restrictions on Canadian lumber translate to higher construction costs. [to access the full story a Bloomberg subscription is required]
It’s hard to find anything good to say about Canadian forestry stocks right now. Some of the biggest names in the sector have been on a downward slide for the past three years. … But the onslaught of grim news has highlighted some bargains. …Okay, the definition of attractive rests on an assumption that risk-averse investors might not want to embrace just yet: Despite Mr. Trump’s bluster, the US still needs Canadian lumber in a big way to feed its lumber-intensive home construction industry. Says who? The National Association of Home Builders, for one. …Some analysts believe that US forestry companies will struggle to replace Canadian softwood. Ben Isaacson, at Bank of Nova Scotia, estimates that US producers would have to build 50 new mills to become fully independent of Canadian lumber. Just two companies build the specialized equipment required in mills. They would struggle to supply even two mills a year. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]){kind=logo}
In the third quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 60, up one point compared to the previous quarter. With the reading of 60, the RMI remains solidly in positive territory above 50, but lower than it had been at any time from 2021 through 2024. Overall, remodelers remain optimistic about the market, although slightly less optimistic than they were at this time last year. The most significant headwinds they are facing include high material and labor costs, as well as economic and political uncertainty making some of their potential customers cautious about moving forward with remodeling projects. The small quarter-over-quarter improvement is consistent with flat construction spending trends and the current wait-and-see demand environment.
WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae published the results of its September 2025 
FORT MILL, South Carolina — In a major stride towards its ambitious 2030 sustainability strategy, Domtar released its sustainability report. The report, entitled 
US civil society groups are urging the European Commission to resist Washington’s pressure to delay the EU’s deforestation regulation (EUDR) or tweak the rules to grant the country preferential treatment, according to a letter seen by Euractiv. The missive, sent this morning to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Commissioners responsible for green rules, the economy and trade, warns against any backtracking. “We are particularly concerned by the Commission’s apparent willingness to offer the U.S. special treatment under the EUDR as part of ongoing EU-U.S. trade negotiations,” the letter reads. The organisations refer to the joint statement issued by Brussels and Washington in September, which labels the US as posing “negligible risk to global deforestation.” Rick Jacobsen, senior manager for commodities policy at the US NGO Environmental Investigation Agency, told Euractiv that US interests have “ramped up the pressure campaign” to weaken the law before it even comes into force.
ATLANTA — Forest Stewardship Council US announced the approval of the revised 
Despite the Trump administration’s pledge to aggressively clear overgrowth from national forests, the U.S. Forest Service is falling significantly short on wildfire mitigation work. By mid-September, the agency had only treated about 2.2 million acres through thinning and prescribed burns. That’s far short of the over 4 million acres treated during the last year of the Biden administration, and it’s also behind the agency’s annual average over the past decade. Forest Service Chief Tom Schultz blamed “operational challenges” and said agency resources were diverted to help battle blazes in Canada. However, Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon is blaming the slowdown in fuel treatments on the Trump administration firing thousands of Forest Service employees earlier this year. …the government shutdown has stopped wildfire prevention efforts across the country’s entire 193 million acres of national forest land [at] the ideal time for the agency to conduct safe prescribed burns across the West.
Last April, a pair of teenage boys … set fire to wooden pallets someone had dumped in the woods. Within a few hours it became one of the fastest-moving and most destructive wildfires on record in the New Jersey Pinelands. By the time it was brought under control three weeks later, about 15,000 acres of preserved forest were destroyed, and thousands of people were forced to flee their homes and businesses. Most official accounts of what became known as the Jones Road Fire attribute its ferocious power to the intensifying cycles of drought and heat linked to climate change that continue to affect coastal areas. But forestry experts in New Jersey point to another cause. …On Sept. 18, the New Jersey Pinelands Commission took a big step toward more aggressive management of the state’s Pinelands National Preserve voting to thin out a 12,000-acre stretch of pine and oak woodland adjacent to the wildfire site.
Given market sentiment and operating rates, in addition to recent mill closures and curtailments, how has demand for wood fiber changed recently and over the past 10 years? …Total capacity of the wood-using U.S. pulp and paper sector declined 18% in the past 10 years. This decline is specific to wood-using mills, excluding facilities that rely exclusively on recycled fiber, but the sector reported drops in all end uses, with reductions in printing and writing capacity falling 49%. This represented over half of the lost capacity nationwide. Newsprint, household/sanitary, and market pulp segments also had notable declines, each representing 10%-16% of the lost capacity. Regionally, capacity reductions in the U.S. South accounted for most of the volume lost (64%), with the U.S. West and North each representing 18%. The West experienced the largest and most severe drop in capacity for a given region, with pulp and paper mill closures and reductions decreasing capacity by 26%.
WASHINGTON — The US Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a high-profile challenge to Washington’s Climate Commitment Act, marking yet another victory for the state’s keystone climate policy. The lawsuit started with the private operator of a natural gas power plant in Grays Harbor County. The plant is required to buy pollution allowances to pay for the many tons of greenhouse gasses it emits into the atmosphere under the 2021 “Cap and Invest” law. The plant’s owner, Chicago-based Invenergy, sued Laura Watson, then-head of Washington’s Department of Ecology, in late 2022, arguing that the state’s carbon market is unconstitutional. The lawsuit claimed that the state law discriminated against privately operated natural gas plants. In 2023, US District Court Judge Benjamin Settle dismissed the case. The company appealed. …The Supreme Court on Monday denied Invenergy’s petition outright. The justices did not publish any written justification for their decision.