Blog Archives

Special Feature

Lumber demand sees modest seasonal uplift but first-quarter 2025 could be the high-water mark

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
May 5, 2025
Category: Special Feature
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

In mid-April, the Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies (JCHS) released its Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity update, forecasting R&R growth ~+1.6% per quarter between now and Q1/26. This projected growth comes after a modest pullback in R&R spending in 2024 and will be welcomed by North American solid-wood producers given expected declines in demand from new residential construction in the coming quarters. …Recent pricing trends persisted in North American lumber markets over the past month, with S-P-F prices continuing lower while SYP prices moved higher. …A modest seasonal uptick in demand from treaters appears to be one of the catalysts creating SYP price improvement, while the pause on tariffs—the threat of which had previously boosted S-P-F prices—has now precipitated a drop in S-P-F lumber pricing.

As we’ve highlighted exhaustively over the past several months, duties on Canadian lumber exports to the US are scheduled to more than double later this year, and there is still potential for incremental lumber tariffs following a Section 232 investigation (there is the potential for tariffs to extend to panels, etc., but even producers don’t have any clarity). Barring an unlikely spike in lumber demand, many Canadian sawmills are likely to discover that the economics of selling lumber into the US no longer work (unless prices move substantially higher—but that will be driven by closures in Canada). …For Canadian producers, do alternative markets exist, or could a surge in Canadian homebuilding replace some of the lost volumes to the US? In short, there are no easily accessible markets that come close to the size of the US and that can be supplied by Canadian mills.

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Business & Politics

A Crash Course on Global Trade and How Trump Is Wrecking It

By Olamide Olaniyan
The Tyee
May 16, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Kristin Hopewell

Canada and the United States have long been cosy trade partners, but that relationship is now tested by US President Trump, who in his first months in office has threatened, paused and reversed tariffs so many times it makes the head spin. …All of this would have been inconceivable 20 years ago, University of BC professor Kristen Hopewell says. And this approach not only will be damaging to the interests of the United States and its major trade partners for years to come, but risks unravelling a system that’s ordered the world economy since the end of the Second World War. It’s more than just topsy-turvy tariffs. Institutions like the World Trade Organization, and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, have defined the rules of trade for nearly a century and helped usher in a period of relative stability and prosperity. And those foundations of trade are now also at stake.

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Carney reboots Liberal Cabinet for a fresh round with Trump 2.0

By Mickey Djuric and Mike Blanchfield
Politico
May 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Mark Carney

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled a crisis-era Cabinet to confront Donald Trump’s trade war, steady a weakening economy and reset the high-stakes Canada-US relationship. …Carney told reporters he will take the lead on Canada-U.S. relations but will lean on Cabinet members who have experience dealing with Trump and his allies:

  • Dominic LeBlanc will be his go-to minister on all things Trump. He and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are texting buddies. LeBlanc has also been dealing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent informally.
  • Domestically, he wants Canada’s economy to rely less on the United States. François-Philippe Champagne will stick around as Carney’s finance minister and will come face to face with Bessent next week at the G7 finance ministers’ meeting in Banff, Alberta.
  • Carney said Canada is at the “start of an industrial transformation,” which Mélanie Joly will help lead, drawing on her experiences dealing with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other US officials.
  • He said newly installed defense and public safety ministers — David McGuinty and Gary Anandasangaree, respectively — will also play key roles in engaging Trump in what he called a “return to more traditional Cabinet government.” McGuinty will be off to The Hague next month, where he’ll meet Pete Hegseth, at the NATO Summit. 
  • Carney also tapped veteran business executive Tim Hodgson as his energy and natural resources minister after recruiting him to run in the April election.
  • Carney is keeping Chrystia Freeland out of the president’s sights — focusing on breaking down trade barriers between Canada’s provinces to dull the pain of Trump’s tariffs.

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Alabama Republicans are asking Commerce to set tariff rates on lumber to 60%

By Ari Hawkins
PoliticoPro
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States, International

Alabama Republicans are asking the Trump administration to set the duty rate on timber and lumber products to at least 60 percent, as it pursues a Section 232 investigation, according to a letter first obtained by Morning Trade. “In recent years, our $12 billion domestic cabinet industry has been devastated by unfairly traded imports of kitchen cabinets and cabinet components,” wrote Sens. Katie Britt and Tommy Tuberville, as well as Reps. Barry Moore, Gary Palmer, Mike Rogers, Dale Strong and Robert Aderholt in a note sent Thursday to Lutnick and Undersecretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Jeffrey Kessler. The Alabama Republicans note that the U.S. kitchen cabinet industry supports 250,000 jobs around the country and 5,000 in Alabama, and warn some U.S. manufacturers are operating at as low as 30 percent capacity. [to access the full story a PoliticoPro subscription is required]

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Trump’s tariffs on Canada may stay, but stronger ties possible: US envoy

By Sean Boynton
Global News
May 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

President Trump’s tariffs on Canada may not be “totally removed” under a future trade agreement, the US ambassador says, but the two countries are on the path toward a stronger relationship. Pete Hoekstra, who serves as Trump’s envoy to Canada, says there are opportunities to secure new economic and security partnerships on the foundation set by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the White House last week. …“We had a few rough months and those types of things. But we have strong economic ties, we have strong national security ties, we have personal ties. … There is so much to this foundation. …However, Hoekstra said Canada should expect some level of tariffs on its exports under a new trade deal, even a rate lower than the ones it currently faces. He pointed to the new framework with the United Kingdom announced last week.

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BC premier says softwood lumber accord could build ‘momentum’ for US trade deals

By Wolfgang Depner
The Canadian Press the Times Colonist
May 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

VICTORIA — Resolving the softwood lumber dispute could create “momentum” for a larger trade agreement between Canada and the US, Premier David Eby says. Eby said that he and several other premiers pressed that point during a virtual meeting with Prime Minister Carney after his visit with President Trump. He said softwood lumber could present an opportunity to “lead the way in terms of opening the door to meaningful discussions that benefit both Americans with cheaper building materials … as well as growth in our economy.” The premier said it doesn’t matter if Canada and the United States resolves the softwood lumber dispute before dealing with the overall trade and tariff issue….Council of Forest Industries chief economist Kurt Niquidet said he agrees. “I think Premier Eby has been doing a good job to raise the profile of softwood lumber,” Niquidet said. “It’s not just a BC  issue, it’s a national issue.”

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Canada’s Carney becomes the latest foreign leader to get the Trump treatment in the Oval Office

By Chris Megerian
The Associated Press
May 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

A meeting between the leaders of Canada and the US is not usually considered a high-stakes showdown, but here was newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney making his first visit to the Oval Office to see President Donald Trump, who has spent months musing about turning America’s northern neighbor into the 51st state. …The interaction offered a glimpse into how Trump has transformed Oval Office meetings from brief and bland encounters into precarious affairs. …His approach can be thrilling for supporters and destabilizing for diplomats accustomed to a more deliberative approach to international relations. … It appears that Carney struck the right balance, at least in Trump’s mind. An invitation to the Oval Office has long been the height of international prestige. …Now, they’re raucous episodes in a foreign policy reality show, starring Trump. While the president can be a gracious host, he openly complains about visitors’ countries.

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Canadian American Business Council CEO says she was ‘heartened’ by comments from Trump-Carney meeting

By Daniel Johnson
BNN Bloomberg Politics
May 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Beth Burke

The chief executive officer of the Canadian American Business Council says she is optimistic following the meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump. The highly anticipated meeting took place at the White House Tuesday was the first in-person meeting since the Canadian election, coming amid trade tensions between the two nations. …“I think it’s exactly what we had all hoped for, the beginning of a conversation that brings us back to business. Having a conversation about how we work well together is so important because we’ve done it in all of our history,” Beth Burke, the CEO of the Canadian American Business Council said. …Earlier Tuesday morning, Trump posted a message on Truth Social saying the U.S. doesn’t need “ANYTHING” Canada has, including cars, lumber and energy. Burke said she thinks the U.S. president’s comments on the issue are part of the negotiation.

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Steelworkers welcome launch of B.C.’s new Provincial Forestry Council with a focus on workers

By Jeff Bromley, Wood Council Chair
United Steelworkers
May 15, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada West

Jeff Bromley

The United Steelworkers union (USW) welcomes the launch of BC’s new Forestry Advisory Council as a critical step toward building a stronger, more sustainable forestry industry that puts workers and communities first. …“Our forest industry has suffered deeply over the past decade, with over 2,500 Steelworkers losing their jobs,” said Bromley. “Now is the time to ensure that BC’s working forest delivers the value to British Columbians that it was always meant to and that includes good, family and community-supporting union jobs.” …I’m on this council to make sure any review or reform of BC’s forest sector puts workers front and centre,” said Bromley. …The USW commends the B.C. NDP government’s effort to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders to guide the future of forestry.

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COFI voices concern over exclusion from new BC Forest Advisory Council

By Kim Haakstad, President and CEO
BC Council of Forest Industries
May 15, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Kim Haakstad

Kim Haakstad, CEO of the BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI)… is deeply concerned by the lack of active, front-line industry representation on the newly announced Provincial Forest Advisory Council. To align ecological, economic, and social outcomes, those who manage the realities of the sector every day must have a seat at the table—not just be invited to comment from the sidelines. Also troubling is the council’s vague scope and mandate—especially given the many significant forestry reviews… still being implemented. …Introducing yet another process, while those on the ground are still adapting to new frameworks… does little to support either ecological outcomes or the stable, predictable flow of forest resources BC urgently needs. …Most forestry jobs and investment come from primary operations—sawmills, pulp mills, contractors, and tenure holders—yet these voices are missing from this council, the BCTS Review Task Force, and the Softwood Lumber Advisory Council. This pattern of exclusion is concerning.

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New BC council launched to support forestry in BC

By Ministry of Forests
Government of British Columbia
May 15, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

Members of the newly formed Provincial Forest Advisory Council are tasked with providing recommendations to government on advancing forest stewardship, while supporting communities and workers that rely on forests. Under the Cooperation and Responsible Government Accord 2025, the B.C. government and BC Green caucus have established the Provincial Forest Advisory Council. The council will provide recommendations to government to ensure there are clear and measurable outcomes that support a healthy forests, healthy ecosystems and a healthy forestry sector. …The council will consult with industry partners, such as the Provincial Forestry Forum and ecological, environmental and biodiversity experts, to engage the public for feedback and honour commitments to work in partnership with First Nations. …The council brings together forestry sector leaders that have been jointly appointed by the BC NDP and Green caucuses. The council will provide an interim report this fall, with a final report expected by the end of 2025.  

Related coverage in Business in Vancouver: BC appoints council to improve forest sector, and the forestry ecosystem

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Port Alberni sees fresh investment amid forest sector turmoil

By Ish Sharma
The Western Investor
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada West

PORT ALBERNI, BC — An ambitious project to redevelop Western Forest Products former Somass mill site on the Port Alberni waterfront is moving forward, infusing fresh hope in a city hit hard by the challenges dogging the coastal forest industry. …“Exciting times for the City of Port Alberni moving forward and getting to revision an old mill site,” said Mike Fox, chief administrative officer with Port Alberni. …The amenities are needed. …The need for new housing is likely to grow as new businesses bring jobs to replace those lost by troubles in the forest sector. San Group, once Port Alberni’s key employer, filed for creditor protection last November, but the Amix Group and Canadian Maritime Engineering Ltd. are looking to expand. …Amix Marine Services recently bought 45 acres from Western Forest Products Ltd. for $7.3 million for a new marine terminal and will make Port Alberni its home port.

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Domtar nears decision on converting Quebec mill to containerboard

By Katie Pyzyk
Packaging Dive
May 19, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

Domtar appears close to making a final decision about whether to convert its newsprint mill in Gatineau, Quebec, to a containerboard mill. …Last week, Unifor concluded labor negotiations with Domtar regarding the Gatineau site, and the final contract will likely be published by month’s end, said Daniel Cloutier, Unifor Quebec director. As part of the labor arrangement, agreed not to bargain, lock out or strike for eight years — on the condition that Domtar would move forward with the mill conversion, Cloutier said. Domtar agreed to proceed with the mill conversion investment, Cloutier said, although the company has not issued a final decision. Unifor anticipates that should come by autumn, if not earlier. …”one thing that could help them to make that decision was the guarantee that they will have no conflicts at [the] Gatineau plant while they proceed with the construction of the new facility,” he said.

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Biochar could put Espanola on the comeback trail

By Ian Ross
Northern Ontario Business
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, Canada East

A leading clean-technology company looks to be the first tenant of a proposed bio-hub complex at the former Espanola pulp and paper mill. CHAR Technologies is focusing on setting up shop at the idled Espanola site to produce renewable natural gas and a bio-coal product from residual wood waste. The innovative Toronto company has teamed up with the BMI Group, the property’s pending new owners, to be co-developers in creating a renewable energy production facility at the mill site, now being dubbed Bioveld North. BMI is in the process of buying the property from Domtar, which closed the mill in 2023. The deal is expected to close this month. Last week, the two companies inked a “strategic partnership” agreement that involves BMI making a $2-million investment in CHAR to become a major shareholder and help fast-track CHAR’s flagship Thorold facility into commercial production later this year.

Related coverage: New products, new name, new life for the Domtar Mill in Espanola

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‘Solid American Hardwood Tax Credit Act’ introduced

The HBS Dealer
May 13, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

US Representatives Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-PA) and Terri Sewell (D-AL) have introduced the “Solid American Hardwood Tax Credit Act” (or H.R. 3322) to enable individual taxpayers to include solid American manufactured hardwood products, such as flooring and paneling, as qualified home energy efficiency improvements under the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit. The IRS provision covers qualified energy-efficient improvements to homes made after Jan. 1, 2023, for tax credits up to $3,200. The legislation aims to provide meaningful environmental and economic benefits. As a building material, hardwood actively sequesters carbon and serves as long-term carbon storage in residential structures. Carbon storage reduces the impact of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and helps support more sustainable practices. By ensuring hardwood materials are counted as an energy efficient home improvement, this legislation could potentially help lower the cost of housing and strengthen American manufacturing. [related coverage by the National Hardwood Lumber Association]

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America has given China a strangely good tariff deal

The Economist
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

America has agreed to cut the “reciprocal” tariffs it imposed on China last month from 125% to a more digestible 10% for at least 90 days. China has agreed to do the same. It has also agreed to roll back other retaliatory measures, such as restrictions on sales of rare-earth minerals. …The result is a combination of tariffs that are far higher than Mr Trump inherited but much lower than seemed likely a few weeks ago. …On May 12th Mr Bessent all but conceded that tariffs on China had gotten out of hand. The result was the “equivalent of an embargo”. Financial chaos following Liberation Day, which included a bond-market revolt and a plunging dollar, helped Mr Bessent persuade Mr Trump to offer a 90-day reprieve to all of America’s trading partners on April 9th. After the Geneva talks, China has now been added to the list. [to access the full story an Economist subscription is required]

Related by the WSJ Editorial Board: The Great Trump Tariff Rollback – The President started a trade war with Adam Smith. He lost.

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Why the US and China pulled back from the edge

By Victoria Guida, Daniel Desrochers, Megan Messerly & Phelim Kine
Politico
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

President Trump’s deal to dramatically slash tariffs on China thrilled markets and offered a sliver of relief for businesses across the country. It also revealed an important lesson: Even Teflon Don can’t outrun economic reality. The deal in which both sides agreed to lower tariff rates by triple-digit percentages, came as anxiety mounted about a potential downturn in the US. …The agreement is an acknowledgment that a full-on economic divorce of the US and China would be too painful for both sides. …For U.S. corporations operating across borders, the de-escalation might offer some solace. But the remaining 30 percent tariff added to Chinese goods will cut heavily into profits — and be cost-prohibitive in some sectors. …One former Trump administration official said the meeting between the U.S. and China resulted from pressure on the White House from a variety of industries. …Beijing, too, was watching its economy falter.

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Strengthening Wood Products Manufacturing: US Endowment Partners with US Forest Service

The US Endowment for Forestry and Communities
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

The US Endowment for Forestry and Communities is proud to partner with the US Forest Service to support the backbone of sustainable forest management—wood products manufacturers. …Endowment staff joined colleagues from the US Forest Service to visit several facilities benefitting from the Wood Products Infrastructure Assistance funding, a component of the Wood Innovations Program. One notable stop was Shasta Green, a family-owned logging and sawmill operation in Burney, California. With support from the program, Shasta Green has been able to upgrade sawmill equipment and modernize kiln controls. …The Endowment and the Forest Service are also offering technical assistance through the Wood Manufacturing Facility Assistance Program. This initiative is designed to help existing manufacturers improve operations, remain competitive, and continue contributing to forest stewardship and community well-being.

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What the US-China Trade Agreement Means for Markets

By James Mackintosh
The Wall Street Journal
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

The temporary lifting of triple-digit trade levies between China and the US while trade talks get under way removes the threat of an immediate stagflationary hit to the economy. This is very good news. It goes much further than investors thought possible—the current deal reduces the extra tariffs on China to 30%, made up of the base of 10% that will be matched by China, plus a 20% duty meant to make China do more to combat fentanyl. But an even better reason for such a big bounce is that it looks like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now in control of trade policy. Put simply, the grown-ups are in the room. …Don’t get your hopes too high. Tariffs are unlikely to go back to pre-Trump levels. …Bessent is after deep reform of China’s economy. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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Dow set to soar after US dramatically lowers tariffs with China

By David Goldman
CNN Business
May 12, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, International

US stock futures surged after President Donald Trump’s top trade officials brokered a surprisingly dramatic de-escalation in trade tensions with China over the weekend, dropping tariffs to much lower levels, which some economists say could stave off a US recession. …Both sides agreed to axe tariffs by 115 percentage points, still leaving the levies considerably higher than where they were before Trump took office in January – but much, much lower than the historic level over the past month that deeply concerned American businesses, consumers, economists and investors. Bessent said the US and China had put in place a mechanism to avoid raising tariffs on each other again, suggesting that the worst of the trade war may be behind us. …Bessent said “The April 2 tariff level for China was 34%, so we have moved that down from 34% to 10%.”

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Feeding America’s insatiable appetite for lumber (NPR Podcast)

By Will Walkey and Meghna Chakrabarti
National Public Radio – Boston
May 8, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

The Trump administration wants to expand the American lumber industry by logging more trees in national forests and raising tariffs on lumber imports. The impact that could have on the domestic timber industry. NPR Boston hosted Ryan Dezember (Wall Street Journal), Scott Dane, (American Loggers Council), Jim Manke, (Manke Lumber Company), Troy Jackson, (logger and previous president of the Maine Senate), and Randi Spivak, (Center for Biological Diversity).

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Clarification of Timing on New US Duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber

By Paul Jannke, Principal, Lumber
FEA Forest Economic Advisors
May 6, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States

In response to some confusion regarding the timing of the US Dept of Commerce’s (DOC) final determinations for the new Canadian softwood duties, FEA’s Paul Jannke offered a few clarifications. Canadian lumber duties (14.4%) are likely to jump to ~34.5%. A final decision is expected in early to mid-August, but duty hikes could occur as early as July 3. …Moreover, the DOC issued preliminary findings suggesting a combined duty increase of about 20% to 34.5%. It is important to note that this is a preliminary determination; the final rates will differ, but if history is a guide, it won’t be by much. …The DOC published its antidumping determination on March 5, followed by the CVD determination on April 9. By law, the final determinations are due within 120 days of these publications, unless the DOC extends their review by 60 days. …The most probable scenario involves the DOC aligning the timelines, placing the release of the final duty determinations in the early to mid-August timeframe. 

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International Paper closes Texas plants, cuts 117 jobs

By Noi Mahoney
Freight Waves
May 19, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

EDINBURG, Texas — International Paper recently said it was shuttering two Texas facilities and laying off 117 workers as it restructures its presence along the US-Mexico border. The company is closing two production facilities in Edinburg, Texas, one that manufactures containers and another that makes paper sheets. The sheet plant will be converted into a warehouse. While the company is closing two production plants in Edinburg, it is investing more funds at a nearby facility in McAllen, Texas, as well as a plant across the border in Reynosa, Mexico, officials said. “There are 117 positions impacted; however the expansion at McAllen will create 40 new hourly positions to be filled,” International Paper said. “The company will assist employees and customers through this transition.” …Since October, International Paper has laid off over 2,500 employees and closed facilities in Arizona, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas.

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White House’s approach to tariffs may bring serious consequences for American hardwoods

By Scott Seyler, Northland forest Products Inc.
The Williamsport Sun Gazette
May 17, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

Scott Seyler

PENNSYLVANIA — As a result of the Trump Administration’s reckless tariff policies, America’s hardwood industry has faced a range of consequences, including lost revenues, cancelled orders and the high costs of diverting shipments already in route to China. The 125% tariffs that China applied to U.S. imports in response to the staggering 145% tariffs that the Trump administration placed on Chinese goods on April 2 jolted hardwood producers. …For now, the trade war between United States and China has simmered, with tariffs rates on American exports to China now set at 10%. Still, there is much at stake for America’s hardwood producers. In Pennsylvania, which is the nation’s leading producer of hardwood lumber… the forest-products industry employs over 60,000 people and has a $21.8 billion direct impact and a $39.1 billion indirect impact on the state economy. The livelihoods of foresters, loggers, sawyers, material handlers, lumber graders and many more well-paying jobs hang in the balance. 

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West Fraser General Manager retires after 51 years

By Amber Lollar
The Henderson News
May 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

HENDERSON, Texas — Henderson’s West Fraser recently celebrated the long-deserved retirement of their General Manager, Raymond Mitchell, after 51 hard-working years with the still-growing company. The company threw a blow-out bash for Mitchell. Local officials, current and former employees, and West Fraser upper management gathered on the expanded facility to celebrate Mitchell and his many accomplishments throughout his time with the company. Mitchell started his decades long tenure in the lumber industry at the ripe age of 19. He has held the title of Mill Manager since 1999.

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International Paper to close two Texas facilities

By International Paper
PR Newswire
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

MEMPHIS, Tennessee — International Paper announced the consolidation of its operations in the Rio Grande Valley. …The company will make strategic investments to convert the current Edinburg, Texas sheet plant into a warehouse, invest in its current facility in McAllen, Tex. to increase capabilities and shift its current Reynosa, Mexico operations to a new, more modern and capable facility that is currently under construction in Reynosa. The company will close its box plant and sheet plant in Edinburg, Texas. “The decision to cease operations at our two Edinburg facilities while investing in McAllen and Reynosa allows us to focus our efforts,” said Tom Hamic, Executive VP and President of Packaging Solutions North America.

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Trump-supporting timber business owner struggles as tariffs disrupt trade

The Bastille Post
May 11, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

An American timber business owner who supports Donald Trump is grappling with unsold inventory and shrinking cash flow due to the ongoing trade war, as Washington’s punitive tariffs weigh heavily on his operations and push him to seek alternatives to the Chinese market. Brandon Arbogast, the owner of Valley Log Sales in Timberville, Virginia, has spent decades in the lumber industry, exporting premium Virginia timber, primarily to China. …Sitting on 120,000 to 130,000 U.S. dollars’ worth of unsold wood, Arbogast is contemplating selling some of his land to maintain cash flow. …As a self-identified Trump supporter, Arbogast is willing to endure the hardship, hoping that a resolution to the trade dispute will eventually bring relief. For now, his premium walnut logs, which are typically transformed into furniture, flooring, and kitchen cabinets, remain idle.

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Georgia Governor signs major hurricane relief package

The Tifton Gazette
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

FORSYTH, Georgia — Gov. Brian Kemp signed landmark legislation Thursday at the Georgia Forestry Association (GFA) headquarters delivering urgently needed relief to forest landowners and rural communities impacted by Hurricane Helene — a storm that caused more than $1.28 billion in timber losses across Georgia’s most productive forestlands. The legislation, passed with strong bipartisan support, delivers both immediate recovery tools and long-term support to ensure Georgia’s forestry sector can recover, replant, and remain a pillar of the state’s economy, the GFA said. …The package includes: — A refundable reforestation tax credit for planting and restoration efforts. — A state income tax exemption for federal disaster aid. — A sales tax exemption for certain farm rebuilding materials. — Ad valorem harvest tax relief for landowners in affected counties — paired with state reimbursements to protect local government budgets. These measures mirror the real-world needs voiced by landowners, loggers, and mills.

Related news by Associated Press: Federal officials set timeline for Helene aid to farmers

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Beltrami County approves $137M upgrade plan for West Fraser lumber mill

Beltrami County, Minnesota
Citizen Portal
May 7, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: United States, US East

MINNESOTA — The Beltrami County Work Session held on May 6, 2025… featured discussions on a proposed $137 million investment to upgrade the West Fraser facility, which is crucial for both the mill’s future and the local economy.Jeremy Buck from West Fraser presented plans to modernize the mill, which has been operational since 1981 and still uses much of its original equipment. The proposed renovations aim to enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impact, with the potential to preserve approximately 32 direct jobs and support an estimated 500 indirect jobs in the community. The company has applied for assistance from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) through the Job Creation Fund, which requires a resolution of support from the county. …The next steps will involve further discussions on the budget and the resolution to support West Fraser’s investment.

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UPM Plywood and the Industrial Union signed a new collective labor agreement, strikes at the mills in Finland are ending

UPM Plywood
May 9, 2025
Category: Business & Politics
Region: International

UPM Plywood and the Industrial Union have today signed the new collective labor agreement for UPM Plywood mills in Finland. The strikes at the mills are ending and work will start immediately. “We are pleased to have reached an agreement and to be able to start the work in our mill operations. We managed to find a solution that secures the purchasing power of our employees and supports the future success of UPM Plywood mills,” says Juhani Tenhunen, Vice President, Operations at UPM Plywood. The new company specific collective agreement is set to take effect today and is valid until the end of 2027. The dispute centered on wage increases, which had delayed a resolution despite most other agreement terms being settled in August 2024. …Production at the company’s Otepää mill in Estonia remained unaffected during the strike.

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Finance & Economics

Canada’s Inflation rate drops to 1.7% in April, driven by lower energy prices after carbon tax removal

By Jenna Benchetrit
CBC News
May 20, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

Canada’s inflation rate eased to 1.7% in April, driven by a drop in prices after the federal government removed the consumer carbon tax, according to Statistics Canada. The slowdown came after the inflation rate hit 2.3% in March. Lower crude oil prices were also a factor in the decline, the data agency said. Despite the decline in headline inflation, core inflation measures all rose in April, some above three per cent — well above the Bank of Canada’s two per cent target rate. The central bank watches those numbers closely because they strip out volatile sectors and don’t factor in one-offs like the removal of the carbon tax. …The central bank is set to make its next interest rate decision on June 4. Porter still expects that the Bank of Canada will cut, given the outlook for weak economic growth in 2025, but said the bank might need more time to see how inflation plays out.

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Canadian housing starts were up 30% in April

Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation
May 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The six-month trend in housing starts increased 2.4% in April to 240,905 units, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada. The total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada increased 30% in April (278,606 units) compared to March (214,205 units). Actual housing starts were up 17% year-over-year in centres with a population of 10,000 or greater, with 21,720 units recorded in April, compared to 18,539 in April 2024. This marks the highest actual housing starts for the month of April on record, and pushed the year-to-date total to 67,022, down 2% from the same period in 2024. “The increased starts activity in April was driven by increases across all housing types in Québec and the Prairie provinces, while starts in Ontario and BC declined.

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Can US federal land offset imported Canadian forest products?

By Austin Lamica
RISI Fastmarkets
May 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Tariff discussions about reducing US dependence on foreign goods became a focus for the second Trump administration. …However, the US forest products industry’s reliance on Canadian wood raises questions about eliminating Canadian wood imports entirely. This piece is the second in a two-part series by the Fastmarkets team. Part one of this series explored converting capacity to replace finished products sourced from Canada.  …Theoretically, US federal lands currently have ample timber supplies to offset the volume of softwood lumber imported from Canada. However, increasing federal timber harvests upwards of 450% may be challenging, as many headwinds, aside from those related to lumber production capacity, may limit the government’s ability to ramp up timber production to this level. Foremost is the contraction of forest area available for harvest due to environmental regulation and wildfires. Trump’s executive order and proposed NWFP amendments aim to address these issues, but this will likely not happen overnight.

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Trump keeps saying the US doesn’t need Canada’s stuff. We asked experts

By Jordan Gowling
The Financial Post
May 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Ian Dunn

Trump has threatened to impose additional tariffs on top of the duties already in place but so far has not done so. This is because the US relies heavily on Canadian lumber and paper pulp products. Canada supplies 24 per cent of the US’s softwood lumber, which will be hard to replace. Ian Dunn, CEO of the Ontario Forest Industries Association, said it would take five to 10 years for the US to replace the Canadian market share. “They would have to build new capacity, and they would have to build new mills,” said Dunn. “A lot of mills in the US south and pacific northwest, have shut down or curtailed in the last 16 to 18 months.” Canada is also a large source of paper pulp. Canada produces one-third of the world’s northern bleached softwood kraft pulp and 75 per cent of total capacity in North America. 

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Lumber prices continue to drop with wood market cautious amid tariff uncertainty

By Joe Pruski
RISI Fastmarkets
May 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

The downward price slide of recent weeks was unabated across most framing lumber species. Uncertainty surrounding the economy and potential new developments in US trade policy contributed to a cautious market tone. Many traders lamented that they anticipated at least a modest decline in mortgage interest rates by now that has not materialized. With discounts cutting deeper across most species, the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price tumbled $14. That’s the composite’s first double-digit drop since April 2024. Downward price pressure intensified across the South. …Competitively priced Western S-P-F crept deeper into traditional Southern Pine markets, especially lower grades, which contributed to the downward price pressure on SYP. …Lumber futures settled sharply higher on Thursday after a prolonged downward trend.

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How major global and economic sectors are reacting to US tariff policy

Window + Door – National Glass Association
May 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States, International

The effects have been felt by building industries in terms of increased costs, disrupted supply chains and economic uncertainty. Last week’s webinar, “Trump’s Tariffs: Transition or Turmoil?… focused on the near-term effects of tariffs, how trade environments have shifted in response, and what the next steps of the Trump Administration might be. …Ari Hawkins, a Politico trade reporter, agreed that the administration is likely looking to the USMCA renegotiations to “really get into the weeds of a lot of these tariff disputes” with Canada. …Hawkins says that further Section 232 investigations could lead to new tariffs in the coming months on a range of products, including semiconductors, lumber and critical minerals. While the administration might make exemptions on materials like lumber before those investigations are completed, Hawkins says, they are still likely to face the Section 232 tariffs as part of the administration’s focus on incentivizing manufacturing and development within the US.

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Sawmill Execs: Wild Wood Prices Ahead

By Ryan Dezember
The Wall Street Journal
May 10, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Executives at two of North America’s lumber producers said they are bracing for volatile wood prices this building season before sharply higher US duties on Canadian lumber kick in. Despite President Trump’s threats, his April 2 tariff barrage didn’t hit Canadian lumber. Nonetheless, duties related to a long-running trade dispute are set to more than double later this year. Canfor and Interfor are not sure there won’t also be additional levies tied to Trump’s March 1 order for an investigation into the national security threat of imported wood. …Canfor’s Susan Yurkovich said “Either people won’t be able to access their products and there’ll be a slowdown… or there will be a price response, which also, of course, will have an impact on affordability.” …Interfor’s Bart Bender said he expects volatile pricing this spring and summer while sawmills figure out what sort of increases buyers will bear. [to access the full story a WSJ subscription is required]

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Interfor Corporation reports Q1, 2025 net loss of $35 million

Interfor Corporation
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Interfor recorded a Net loss in Q1’25 of $35.1 million compared to a Net loss of $49.9 million and a Net loss of $72.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $48.6 million on sales of $735.5 million in Q1’25. …Notable items include: Lumber prices increased during Q1’25 as reflected in Interfor’s average selling price of $712 per mfbm, up $53 per mfbm versus Q4’24; lumber shipments totalled 863 million board feet, representing a 77 million board foot decrease over the prior quarter. The decrease primarily relates to the sale of the Quebec operations, weather-related curtailments and shipment delays resulting from tariff uncertainty. …The Company is well positioned with a diversified product mix…only about 24% of the Company’s total lumber production is exported from Canada to the US and exposed to a potential tariff. …Interfor expects that over the mid-term, lumber markets will continue to benefit from favourable underlying supply and demand fundamentals.

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Canfor Corporation reports Q1, 2025 operating loss of $29 million

Canfor Corporation
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, International

VANCOUVER — Canfor Corporation reported its Q1, 2025 results. The Company reported an operating loss of $28.5 million for the first quarter of 2025, compared to an operating loss of $45.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. …These results largely reflected improved lumber segment results and, to a lesser extent, the pulp and paper segment. Canfor’s CEO, Susan Yurkovich said, “While improved lumber benchmark prices provided some relief, rising global economic and trade uncertainty, and US lumber duties, create a challenging backdrop. Through our diversified operating platform in Canada, the US South and Europe, we are positioned to mitigate these challenges, while remaining focused on what we can control. …“For our pulp business” Yurkovich added, “this was another solid quarter with improved results and a strong operational performance. However, global economic uncertainty is also putting pressure on global softwood pulp markets in the near term.”

Related coverage: Canfor Pulp reported Q1, 2025 operating income of $11 million

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Trump talks tough on Canada — while importing more cars, lumber, and oil

By Catherine Baab
The Quartz Daily Brief
May 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Fresh trade data shows deepening US reliance on Canadian goods, even as the president claims the opposite. …According to the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US goods trade deficit with Canada widened to $4.9 billion in March, up sharply from prior months. The surge was driven by higher imports of Canadian-made cars, crude oil, and finished wood products — the exact categories Trump dismissed. Automotive imports rose by $2.6 billion, including a $2.1 billion spike in passenger vehicles, many of which are assembled in Canada. Oil and lumber purchases also increased, contributing to a 14% month-over-month jump in the broader US trade deficit, which hit a new monthly high of $140.5 billion in March. …The US typically runs a services surplus with Canada, and American firms rely heavily on Canadian supply chains in autos, energy, and materials, as the fresh BEA data suggests.

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Conifex Timber reports Q1, 2025 net income of $0.6 million

By Conifex Timber Inc.
GlobeNewswire
May 12, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER, BC — Conifex Timber reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025. EBITDA was $4.9 million for the quarter compared to EBITDA of negative $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and negative $0.5 million in the first quarter of 2024. Net income was $0.6 million for the quarter versus net loss of $7.8 million in the previous quarter and negative $4.5 million in the first quarter of 2024. …lumber production in the first quarter of 2025 totalled approximately 46.3 million board feet, representing operating rates of approximately 77% of annualized capacity. …Power Plant sold 47.6 GWh of electricity under our EPA with BC Hydro in the first quarter of 2025 representing approximately 88% of targeted operating rates. 

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Taiga Building Products reports Q1, 2025 net earnings of $9.8 million

By Taiga Building Products Ltd.
Cision Newswire
May 9, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

BURNABY, BC – Taiga Building Products reported its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024. …The Company’s consolidated net sales for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 were $400.0 million compared to $393.6 million over the same period last year. The slight increase in sales by $6.3 million or 2% was largely due to a higher average pricing as well as product mix.  Net earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 decreased to $9.8 million from $12.8 million over the same period last year primarily due to decreased gross margin. EBITDA for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 was $16.7 million compared to $19.8 million for the same period last year.

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Western Forest Products reports Q1, 2025 net income of $13.8 million

Western Forest Products Inc.
May 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada West

VANCOUVER – Western Forest Products reported improved financial results in the first quarter of 2025, as compared to the same period last year. Net income was $13.8 million in the first quarter of 2025, as compared to a net loss of $8.0 million in the first quarter of 2024, and a net loss of $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. …lumber production of 134 million board feet (versus 145 million board feet in Q1 2024); average lumber selling price of $1,533 per mfbm. …North American markets are expected to be volatile due to concerns around the economic impact caused by potential further US tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. The spring building season which typically leads to gains in softwood lumber demand could be more muted. …In Japan, the spring housing demand is stronger than expected and channel inventories have declined. …Demand for our Industrial lumber products in North America are expected to strengthen as supply remains tight across all species.

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Cascades reports Q1, 2025 operating income of $50 million

By Cascades Inc.
Cision Newswire
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

KINGSEY FALLS, Quebec — Cascades reports its unaudited financial results for the three-month period ended March 31, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $1,154 million (compared with $1,211 million in Q4 2024 and $1,109 million in Q1 2024); Operating income of $50 million (compared with $16 million in Q4 2024 and $9 million in Q1 2024); and Total capital expenditures, net of disposals, totaled $36 million in Q1 2025, compared to $29 million in Q4 2024 and $41 million in Q1 2024. Hugues Simon, CEO, commented: “Our first quarter performance was driven by lower volumes across our businesses as uncertainty regarding tariffs led to a deterioration in consumer and business sentiment beginning in mid-February, resulting in lower sales and profitability levels sequentially.

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Stella-Jones reports Q1, 2025 net income of $93 million

Stella-Jones Inc.
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, Canada East

MONTREAL — Stella-Jones announced financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2025. Highlights include: Sales of $773 million, relatively unchanged from Q1 2024; Operating income of $143 million, including insurance settlement of $38 million; EBITDA of $179 million, or 23.2% margin; Acquisition post-quarter of a steel transmission structure manufacturer, aligned with strategy to support North American infrastructure. …Eric Vachon, President and Chief Executive Officer of Stella-Jones said “Though macroeconomic headwinds continue to impact volume growth, at this stage we remain confident in our ability to achieve our financial objectives. …“The Company entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Locwel., a leading manufacturer of lattice towers and steel poles for electrical transmission. This transaction marks a step forward in Stella-Jones’ long-term vision, allowing us to enhance our infrastructure offering and establish a presence in the growing steel transmission structure industry.”

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US consumer sentiment inched down in May after four months of steep decline

The University of Michigan
May 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes. Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China. Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture.

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US Custom Home Building Trends Flat Year-Over Year

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
The NAHB Eye on Housing
May 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates flat year-over year growth for custom home builders. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. There were 34,000 total custom building starts during the first quarter of 2025. This was unchanged relative to the first quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just more than a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (177,000). Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. 

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Why Moody’s picked now to downgrade the United States

By Heather Long
The Washington Post
May 19, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The United States has officially lost its perfect credit rating. On Friday, Moody’s, for the first time in its history, downgraded U.S. government bonds from the gold star rating of “AAA” to “AA1,” the silver medal equivalent. This wasn’t a total surprise. S&P and Fitch had already lowered the U.S. rating, so this was Moody’s catching up to the crowd. But make no mistake: Moody’s didn’t just pick a random Friday in May to make this move. Moody’s wanted to send a message to Republicans in Congress: Rethink the tax bill. Or, better yet, don’t do it. …The Republicans’ bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the debt over the next decade. …Moody’s cited concern over how big the U.S. debt already is (more than $36 trillion) and how Congress has taken almost no action to stop the annual deficits that keep adding to that tab. [to access the full story a Washington Post subscription is required]

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US Housing Starts Rebound Less Than Expected In April, Building Permits Pull Back Sharply

RTT News
May 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

While the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing a rebound by new residential construction in the U.S. in the month of April, the report also showed a substantial pullback by building permits during the month. The Commerce Department said housing starts shot up by 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.361 million in April after plummeting by 10.1 percent to a revised rate of 1.339 million in March. However, economists had expected housing starts to surge by 3.5 percent to a rate of 1.370 million from the 1.324 million originally reported for the previous month. “Soft housing starts in April are another sign that builders are hitting the brakes this year in response to high uncertainty for costs and future demand,” writes Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers. …The smaller than expected rebound by housing starts came as a sharp increase by multi-family starts was partly offset by a continued slump by single-family starts.

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Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on US Builder Confidence

By Robert Dietz, Chief Economist
NAHB Eye on Housing
May 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Builder confidence fell sharply in May on growing uncertainties stemming from elevated interest rates, tariff concerns, building material cost uncertainty and the cloudy economic outlook. However, 90% of the responses received in May were tabulated prior to the May 12 announcement that the US and China agreed to slash tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks to continue. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 34 in May, down six points from April, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This ties the November 2023 reading and is the lowest since the index hit 31 in December 2022. …All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in May. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell eight points in May to a level of 37, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months edged one-point lower to 42 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers dropped two points to 23.

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US Single-Family Starts Down 2.1% in April on Economic and Tariff Uncertainty

The National Association of Home Builders
May 16, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Economic uncertainty stemming from tariff issues, elevated mortgage rates and rising building material costs pushed single-family housing starts lower in April. Overall housing starts increased 1.6% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.36 million units, according to a report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau. The April reading of 1.36 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 2.1% to a 927,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 12% compared to April 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 10.7% to an annualized 434,000 pace. “The decline in single-family housing starts in April mirrors builder sentiment, as elevated interest rates, uncertainty on the tariff front and rising construction costs are exacerbating housing affordability challenges,” said Buddy Hughes,  NAHB chairman.

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US Producer Price Index for softwood lumber increased 8.6% year-over-year

The HBS Dealer
May 15, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Producer Price Index declined 0.5% in April, according to data released Thursday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, of the 10 key commodities in the hardware and building supply space tracked below, only two (millwork and plywood) index lower compared to a year ago. And only one (plywood) declined from March to April. The softwood lumber index increased 8.6% year-over-year. A month ago, the increase was 12.6%. …Construction input prices decreased 0.1% in April compared to the previous month. Nonresidential construction input prices increased 0.2% for the month. “Construction input prices declined in April, but that was largely due to falling energy prices,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Materials directly affected by tariffs saw sharp price increases for the month. Steel mill product prices, for instance, rose 5.9%, while copper wire and cable prices increased 5.0%.

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US Inflation Eased Again in April But Housing Inflation Remains Elevated

By Fan-Yu Kuo
NAHB Eye on Housing
May 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Inflation slowed to a 4-year low in April while shelter inflation remained elevated. Despite the easing, inflation may pick up in the coming months as possible inflationary pressure from enacted tariffs and other policy uncertainties continues to threaten economic growth and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, housing inflation remains elevated, but it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for an eighth straight month, matching last month’s lowest level since November 2021. …Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation and with it, overall inflation. This emphasizes why the cost of construction, including the cost of building materials, matters not just for housing but also the inflation outlook and the path of future monetary policy. Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. 

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Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected and lowest since 2021

By Jeff Cox
CNBC News
May 13, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Inflation was slightly lower than expected in April as President Trump’s tariffs just began hitting the slowing US economy, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday. The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the 12-month was a bit below the forecast for 2.4%. Markets reacted little to the news, with stock futures pointing flat to slightly lower and Treasury yields mixed. ″“Good news on inflation, and we need it given inflation shocks from tariffs are on their way,” said Robert Frick, at Navy Federal Credit Union. …Shelter prices again were the main culprit in pushing up the inflation gauge. 

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US Multifamily Developer Confidence Falls in the First Quarter

The National Association of Home Builders
May 8, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing declined year-over-year in the first quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released by the NAHB. The MMS produces two separate indices. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 44, down three points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 82, down one point year-over-year. …The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise and subsidized) and one in the built-for-sale (or condominium) market. The component measuring garden/low-rise dipped one point to 54, the component measuring mid/high-rise units fell eight points to 28, the component measuring subsidized units held even at 50 and the component measuring built-for-sale units posted a one-point decline to 38.

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China rolls out more stimulus and agrees to trade talks with the US as tariffs hit economy

By Ken Moritsugu and Elaine Kurtenbach
The Associated Press in the Canadian Press
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, International

BEIJING — China announced a barrage of measures meant to counter the blow to its economy from US President Donald Trump ’s trade war, as the two sides prepared for talks later this week. Beijing’s central bank governor and other top financial officials outlined plans Wednesday to cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve requirements to help free up more funding for lending. …Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, have begun to take a toll on its export-dependent economy at a time when it’s already under pressure from a prolonged downturn in the property sector. China has retaliated with tariff hikes of up to 125% on US goods and stopped buying most American farm products. Late Tuesday, China and the US announced plans for talks. …The agreement to talk comes at a time when both sides have remained adamant, at least in public, about not compromising on the tariffs.

Related news in CNN: US stocks open higher as US-UK trade deal announcement nears

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Uncertainty around tariffs triggers lumber volatility, slows growth

By Valerie Hansen, Chairman BuyMetrics
The LBM Journal
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Valerie Hansen

Threatened tariffs, announced tariffs, rescinded tariffs, pending negotiations, countervailing duties, a falling bond market, rising mortgage rates—the threats, drama, and uncertainty have not been good for the lumber and building materials (LBM) industry. The uncertainty has led to risks of a different kind: slowing growth and rising inflation. Fortunately, the industry scored a win in March when Canadian lumber and panel products were deemed US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement-compliant. Up next, the countervailing and anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber. …Yet to come, the Section 232 National Security Investigation. …As the industry braces for new tariffs, here’s what dealers can learn from the other extreme cycles of the 21st century —the 2006 boom cycle, 2009 bust cycle (Great Recession), and the 2021 COVID-19 cycle. …Risk management: To mitigate the risk of over-paying or experiencing a disruption in supply, expand your supply base. It pays to diversify.

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The Fed will likely hold interest rates steady as Trump’s tariffs spark uncertainty

By Scott Horsley
National Public Radio
May 7, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady later on Wednesday amid fears that President Trump’s tariffs will rekindle inflation and slow economic growth. The decision to keep the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate between 4.25% and 4.5% is widely expected by financial markets despite the president’s repeated demands for the Fed to lower interest rates. …Trade tensions have led to a sharp drop in consumer confidence. But they’ve yet to put much of a dent in the job market. …So long as tariffs threaten to put upward pressure on prices, the Fed will be inclined to keep interest rates relatively high, in an effort to prevent inflation from spiking again. That calculation could change, however, if the job market softens and unemployment starts to climb. Ordinarily, that would push the central bank toward lowering interest rates.

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US Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase, New Home Prices Drop

By Catherine Koh
NAHB Eye on Housing
May 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Mortgage loan applications saw little change in April, as refinancing activity decreased. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, experienced a 0.4% month-over month increase on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. However, year-over-year, the index is up 29.3% compared to April 2024. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 10 basis points in April, reaching 6.8%, according to the MBA survey. As rates edged higher, purchase activity posted a modest 1.9% month-over-month gain (SA), while the Refinance Index declined by 1.4% (SA). Compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are down 37 bps, and thus, purchase applications are higher by 11.2%, while refinance activity has jumped 62.0%.

In related news: US Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises

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Louisiana Pacific reports Q1, 2025 net income of $91 million

Louisiana Pacific Corporation
May 6, 2025
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States, US East

NASHVILLE, Tennessee — Louisiana-Pacific reported its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2025. Highlights include: Siding net sales increased by $41 million (11%) to $402 million; Oriented Strand Board (OSB) net sales decreased by $46 million to $267 million; Consolidated net sales remained flat at $724 million; Net income was $91 million, a decrease of $17 million; and Cash provided by operating activities was $64 million. …“LP’s Siding business delivered 11% revenue growth and margin expansion in the first quarter,” said LP CEO Brad Southern. “Despite tariff uncertainty and a slow start to the building season, LP’s Siding order file is on pace for a record second quarter, driven by ExpertFinish growth, share gains in new residential construction, and a recovering shed market.”

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Wood, Paper & Green Building

In Canada’s housing crisis, are modular homes a cheaper and faster solution?

By Sharif Hassan
CBC News
May 15, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada East

TORONTO — Advocates and experts say while there is no single solution to the homelessness crisis… prefabricated homes could play a significant role in addressing the shortage of affordable and supportive housing. “The modular definitely helps because the faster construction is, the least expensive it is,” Andrea Adams, the executive director of the non-profit developer St. Clare’s said. …Ontario’s housing crisis has been an ongoing issue for years, and some experts say modular housing could play a crucial role in addressing the problem. …Prime Minister Carney promised a housing plan that would yield 500,000 new homes annually and provide $25 billion in loans for companies that make factory-built homes. Carney said he aims to create an “entirely new Canadian housing industry” around modular housing, using Canadian lumber, skilled workers and technology. Ontario Premier Ford also promised $50 million to support modular housing technology.

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Mass timber takes root in two Sudbury industrial builds

By Don Procter
Daily Commercial News
May 12, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: Canada, Canada East

SUDBURY, Ontario — Structural steel has long been the material of choice for industrial buildings in Sudbury, but Bloomington Developments has stepped out of that comfort zone to build two industrial buildings in mass timber. The larger project is a 48,000-square-foot two-storey industrial/commercial building comprised of cross-laminated timber (CLT) that will be completed by the end of the year. …While the building will be clad in a Canadian-sourced insulated steel panel system, the interior will largely consist of exposed CLT. Danielson, says initially the Sudbury warehouse on Cambrian Heights Drive and a smaller CLT building in Herold Industrial Park were specified in steel but the pandemic struck causing steel prices to soar and supply to dwindle. “That prompted our search for alternatives,” Danielson says, noting “a cold call” to Montreal-based Nordic Structures led to collaboration with the architectural firm.

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House Republicans approve amendment authorizing the sale of federal lands to build housing

By Kirk Siegler
National Public Radio
May 7, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States

House Republicans have approved an amendment that authorizes the sale of thousands of acres of federal public land in Nevada and Utah; two states where the federal government owns most of the land that have long been at the forefront of a controversial movement to cede control of it to state or private entities. The House Natural Resources committee approved the amendment late Tuesday night after previously indicating federal land sales wouldn’t be included in a budget reconciliation bill. Most of the proposed land sales or exchanges appear to be aimed at building affordable housing on US Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management land outside Las Vegas and Reno, Nevada and in fast growing southwestern Utah around the tourist town of St. George, Utah. …Democrats and environmentalists say the amendment is part of a broader far right push for a wholesale transfer of federal public lands.

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Project uses tree rings to determine age of historic Atlanta buildings

By Kristal Dixon
Axios Atlanta
May 13, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States, US East

A metro Atlanta nonprofit is teaming up with college students to find the exact age of historic buildings using a unique area of study. While historical documents may say a building was constructed in a certain year, the wood used to create the structure could tell us a different story. Cobb Landmarks is using dendrochronology — the study of tree rings — to pinpoint when wood for metro Atlanta buildings was harvested for construction. Trevor Beemon, Cobb Landmarks’ executive director, said they are partnering with University of West Georgia students who, under the guidance of two professors, will take 12 to 15 samples from structures around metro Atlanta. …The partnership is “really the one chance” South Downtown has to learn about these buildings before they are redeveloped, Capps said. 

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New York city borough plans 500 mass timber housing units

By Dakota Smith
Woodworking Network
May 13, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States, US East

New York City Mayor Eric Adams and New York City Economic Development Corporation’s Andrew Kimball announced that Artimus and Phoenix Realty Group have been selected to build over 500 new mixed-income housing units along the waterfront on the north shore of Staten Island, with a quarter of the new units set aside for affordable housing. The development will be the largest mass timber residential project in New York City… advancing commitments in Mayor Adams’ “Green Economy Action Plan,” a roadmap to grow the city’s green economy, invests in jobs and sectors that help the city combat climate change, and positions New Yorkers to benefit from the nearly 400,000 projected “green-collar” jobs in New York City by 2040. Mayor Adams… “We are not only building the affordable homes New Yorkers need but using sustainable materials to reduce our carbon footprint and help turn New York City’s waterways into the ‘Harbor of the Future.’”

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Maryland is the sixth US state to pass extended producer responsibility legislation for paper and packaging

By Marissa Heffernan
Resource Recycling
May 7, 2025
Category: Wood, Paper & Green Building
Region: United States, US East

MARYLAND — After five years of work and many interim steps, Maryland became the sixth US state to pass extended producer responsibility legislation for paper and packaging, continuing the policy’s evolution in the country. Sent to the governor on April 7, SB 901 would direct a producer responsibility organization to set goals for post-consumer recycled content, recyclability, recycling and reuse rates, source reduction, composting rates and contamination reduction. However, it also builds on newer elements, such as a phased-in approach to reimbursement, seen last year in Minnesota’s law. …The American Forest and Paper Association has called the bill “misguided.” “EPR programs are helpful for materials that don’t have strong end markets or aren’t highly recycled,” the association wrote. “Paper is a highly recycled material with strong end markets.” …Any EPR program must fully and fairly credit our early and voluntary actions to increase recycling in Maryland and across the country.”

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Forestry

How the EU deforestation law aggravates the trade dispute with the United States

The Financial Times in Bytes Europe
May 8, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, International

The EU has made little headway and an attempt to appease the US by delaying controversial import controls has fallen flat. The US forestry industry has accused the EU of erecting trade barriers by favouring its own industry under amended deforestation rules. The EU’s deforestation law, which will ban the import of products from sectors including rubber, cocoa, wood and paper if they come from deforested land, should have come into force last year. Under pressure from the bloc’s trading partners it was delayed until the end of the year. Despite this respite, the nine biggest US forest product organisations accused the EU of setting “severe” compliance challenges, opening a new front in the growing transatlantic trade conflict. The EU has categorised the US — and all its own members — as “low risk”. Heidi Brock, head of AF&PA, said the law amounted to a “non-trade tariff barrier” for US paper and wood products.

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Washington state forests are too complex for ‘cut or don’t cut’ thinking

By Scott Freeman, Jefferson Timber Cooperative
The Seattle Times
May 7, 2025
Category: Forestry
Region: United States, US West

SEATTLE — Recent controversy over the management of Washington’s older state-owned forests has been dominated by an either/or framework: Either we clear-cut these tracts or prevent any harvest at all. Cut it all now or don’t cut any, ever? The human brain loves to dichotomize, but this type of either/or thinking doesn’t work in the woods. Ecologically, economically and culturally, our forests are too complex. Ecologically, climate change is altering our forests rapidly and radically. …Economically, rural areas in Washington state are a microcosm of a pattern that is global in scope. …Cultural values need to be considered as well. …We have to implement a broad array of management models and tools. Instead of re-fighting the 1980s War in the Woods and practicing lawsuit-driven forestry, we need to create flexible, forward-looking practices that will support the health of our forests and rural communities in a time of rapid change.

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Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy

Trump agenda fuels calls to move annual Climate Week from New York to Montreal

By Darius Snieckus
The National Observer
May 8, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: Canada, United States

US President Donald Trump’s anti-environment and protectionist agenda could chase one of the world’s biggest climate events north to Canada. Discussion is growing in global climate circles around moving Climate Week NYC from its historic home in New York City to Montreal, as concerns mount about the chilling effect the US government could have on engagement with international delegates. Catherine McKenna, a former Canadian environment and climate change minister said that the idea had been sparked by “climate advocates/experts who don’t want to go to the US because of border concerns — and general clampdown on discussing climate in the US.” …McKenna said “A lot of people have reached out. The reality is it’s not going to happen this September” when the event is currently scheduled. “But in a year’s time, it could be very different,” she said.

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US stops tracking costs of extreme weather disasters fueled by climate change

By Mary Katherine Wildeman
Public Broadcasting Service
May 8, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: United States

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will no longer track the cost of climate change-fueled weather disasters, including floods, heat waves, wildfires and more. It is the latest example of changes to the agency and the Trump administration limiting federal government resources on climate change. NOAA falls under the US Department of Commerce and is tasked with daily weather forecasts, severe storm warnings and climate monitoring. It is also parent to the National Weather Service. The agency said its National Centers for Environmental Information would no longer update its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database beyond 2024. For decades, it has tracked hundreds of major events across the country, including destructive hurricanes, hail storms, droughts and freezes that have totaled trillions of dollars in damage. The database uniquely pulls information from the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s assistance data, insurance organizations, state agencies and more to estimate overall losses from individual disasters. 

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California Plans to Proceed with Carbon Cap-and-Invest Program Despite Pressure from Trump

By Mark Segal
ESG Today
May 16, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: United States, US West

California Governor Gavin Newsom released a revised proposal for the 2025-2026 state budget, containing plans to extend the state’s “Cap-and-Invest” program, requiring major emitters to purchase allowances for carbon emissions above a declining cap, through 2045. The Cap-and-Invest program, which was set to expire in 2030, is anticipated to result in a continuation of the California Climate Credit, resulting in approximately $60 billion available for utility bill credits to California residents over the duration of the extension. The proposed extension of the carbon pricing program comes despite growing pressure by the Trump administration and Republican state politicians targeting state initiatives charging companies for their greenhouse gas emissions. …Trump specifically called out California’s cap-and-trade system, in addition to new laws in New York and Vermont aimed at fining energy companies for their contributions to climate change. …Newsom said “California’s fundamental values don’t change just because the federal winds have shifted.”

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Georgia offers carbon credits for mass timber projects. How it works.

By Margaret Walker
The Telegraph
May 16, 2025
Category: Carbon, Climate & Bioenergy
Region: United States, US East

Georgia is the first state in the nation to create a carbon registry program that rewards sustainable building practices with carbon credits, with goals to boost both the state’s environment and economy equally. And while only one building project has made it to the registry since the program started, those who helped start the program are confident more developments in the Peach State will start taking advantage of the program soon. The Georgia Carbon Sequestration Registry, first developed in 2008, was originally created to help landowners certify the carbon stored in their forests. But as Georgia kept rapidly growing, lawmakers saw an opportunity to expand the registry’s impact, changing it to allow for financial incentive for constructing developments with mass timber. In 2021, legislation passed that gave the Georgia Forestry Commission a year to write the protocol for the amended carbon registry.

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Health & Safety

National Fire Protection Association 660: The New Standard For Combustible Dust

By Brian Edwards, NFPA Committee for Combustible Dust
Biomass Magazine
May 19, 2025
Category: Health & Safety
Region: United States

For the past 10 years, the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA)  has been working to consolidate several industry-specific standards for combustible dust. In December 2024, the NFPA completed its goal by issuing “NFPA 660–Standard for Combustible Dusts and Particulate Solids.” This new standard combines six existing standards, including NFPA 61 (agricultural dust) and NFPA 664 (wood dust), into a single standard that covers all industries where combustible dust and particulates are generated, used and handled. Building permitting authorities, code enforcers and fire agencies use the NFPA standards to establish the basis of design and operation for new and existing industrial sites, so it’s important for pellet mill owners and operators to be aware of NFPA requirements, especially for new projects and plant modifications. NFPA 660 covers both administrative and engineering requirements at facilities with combustible dust, and its goal is to minimize fires and explosions, help companies maintain business continuity, and, most importantly, protect workers and the public.

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Climate-fueled wildfires contributed to thousands of US deaths over 15 years, study says, with highest in Oregon and California

By Dorany Pineda
The Associated Press in Oregon Public Broadcasting
May 7, 2025
Category: Health & Safety
Region: United States

Wildfires driven by climate change contribute to as many as thousands of annual deaths and billions of dollars in economic costs from wildfire smoke in the United States, according to a new study. The annual range of deaths was 130 to 5,100, the study showed, with the highest in states such as Oregon and California. The paper, published Friday in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment, found that from 2006 to 2020, climate change contributed to about 15,000 deaths from exposure to small particulate matter from wildfires and cost about $160 billion. …Nicholas Nassikas, a study author and a physician and professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School… and a multidisciplinary team of researchers wanted to know: “What does it really mean in a changing environment for things like mortality, which is kind of the worst possible health outcome?” The paper’s researchers focused on deaths linked to exposure to fine particulate matter, or PM2.5 — the main concern from wildfire smoke.

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Forest Fires

Quebec lends forest fire teams to battle blazes in Saskatchewan and Ontario

The Canadian Press in SaskNow.com
May 11, 2025
Category: Forest Fires
Region: Canada, Canada East

Quebec’s forest fire prevention agency says it is sending reinforcements to Ontario and Saskatchewan to help teams fight several forest and brush fires. Two CL-415 firefighting aircraft and their crews will head to Dryden, Ont., while two other of the same aircraft will head to Meadow Lake, Sask. Quebec’s forest fire prevention agency, known as SOPFEU, says the teams departed Sunday from Quebec City. The agency says the current situation in Quebec allows for resources to head to other provinces. In Ontario, there were six active fires burning across the province shortly before noon Sunday, including one in Haliburton, located about 170 km north of Oshawa, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources’ interactive map. The Saskatchewan Ministry of Public Safety map showed there were 18 active wildfires burning Sunday, for a total of 142 fires since the season began on April 1. There were 19 active fires burning in Saskatchewan on Saturday.

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