Michael McCullough

We knew we were in for a rough year in 2025, but not how rough. We hadn’t factored in the breadth and intensity of the incoming Trump administration’s trade actions. As we look forward to 2026, we can expect more of the same, including a likely fraught Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) renegotiation. On the plus side, most economic forecasts suggest the business cycle has bottomed and should improve, if slowly, henceforward. …For all the fear and loathing over “Liberation Day” last April and the targeting of the softwood lumber industry, Canada has come away relatively unscathed from U.S. trade action, with 85 to 90 percent of Canadian exports to the U.S. continuing to cross the border tariff-free. Whether that free pass stays in place depends on negotiations to extend or replace CUSMA, which comes up for renewal in July. Based on past experience with the Trump administration, the process will not go smoothly.