Four of BC’s leading forest sector CEOs delivered a frank and at times sobering assessment of the industry’s current state at the 2026 COFI Convention, telling delegates that conditions are among the most difficult any of them have encountered in careers spanning more than three decades. The session, moderated by Bridgitte Anderson, President and CEO of the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, brought together Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO of Canfor; Sean McLaren, President and CEO of West Fraser; John Mohammed, President and Owner of A&A Trading Ltd.; and Steven Hofer, President and CEO of Western Forest Products. The panel was structured around questions, with the CEOs offering distinct perspectives shaped by their different roles across the sector’s value chain.
On current operating conditions, the panelists were unified in their assessment. Hofer said this is the most challenging business environment for a BC forest products company he has encountered in 33 years. Mohammed described conditions as the worst he has seen in a career of similar length. McLaren said the current downturn is every bit as difficult as the 2008-09 recession, with the key difference being that the rest of the world is carrying on while BC lumber and wood products companies face the convergence of market access barriers, fibre supply constraints, and cost structures that have outpaced every other jurisdiction. Yurkovich said BC used to be the last company standing in a downturn — with well-placed fibre, excellent sawmills, and skilled workers. That has changed. BC is now the first down, with the bulk of production cuts and shipping reductions coming out of British Columbia specifically. She said the situation is unnecessary and fixable.
On fibre access and the path to 45 million cubic metres, McLaren said 45 should be thought of as a floor, not a ceiling, and called for focus and accountability on the top two or three actions from the BCTS review report rather than attempting everything at once. Yurkovich said the annual allowable cut is set at 60 million cubic metres and the province cut around 30 million last year. She said the trees are there — the issue is access — and that if hosting conditions can be corrected, there is no reason BC cannot return to a competitive position in global markets. Mohammed said the sector is at a tipping point: if the cut drops further, the mills and supporting infrastructure will not come back even at current levels. He called the path to 45 an immediate imperative and said Forest Landscape Planning needs a mandate to be completed within 12 to 18 months.
On capital investment, Hofer said the fundamental issue is that capital allocation decisions are driven by clarity of access and security of fibre supply, and BC provides neither right now. Yurkovich said a new mill represents a $200 million US investment with a 20-to-25-year payback, and that making that decision requires reasonable confidence that fibre will be available over that period. Canfor alone has invested $900 million in BC since 2019 across its operations, she said — much of it sustaining existing assets rather than building new capacity. Mohammed said commercial banks now treat forestry as a four-letter word, and that outside of Export Development Canada, private financing for the sector is effectively closed.
On land certainty and DRIPA, Yurkovich provided the panel’s clearest articulation of what the industry needs. She said the ask is simple: a set of rules that apply consistently across the province and are durable over time. Capital is mobile, she said, and it goes where it can earn a reasonable return. The problem in BC is overlapping rules, changing rules, and massive uncertainty. She said the uncertainty around DRIPA adds another layer to an already difficult environment, and that the inability to know whether the rules governing a major investment decision will still be in place over a 20-year horizon is what prevents capital from moving into the province.
On growth opportunities, Hofer said Western Forest Products is focused on accelerating the transition to kiln-dried, value-added finished product, having invested approximately $40 million in new continuous dry kilns, and said he is a strong believer in mass timber’s growing role — including its adoption for data centre construction, where it now accounts for over 10% of all mass timber projects globally. He also raised natural capital as a significant underdeveloped opportunity for BC, noting that other jurisdictions have monetized natural capital for billions of dollars and that major technology companies are writing large cheques for carbon and natural capital partnerships. McLaren said West Fraser’s thesis is that housing and wood products will be a good business, grounded in the reality of an underbuilt US housing market and the company’s positioning to be ready when markets improve.
Asked to give the ministry their most urgent message — with Minister Parmar present in the room — each panelist addressed him directly. Yurkovich said the industry needs secure, predictable access to fibre at a reasonable cost, and that the minister needs the support of his cabinet colleagues to make it happen. McLaren said forest landscape planning done right — with alignment between industry, communities, First Nations, and government — produces the predictable fibre supply that investment requires. Mohammed called for alignment between the Ministry of Forests and other ministries whose mandates create friction on the ground, and put forward a “five by 30” target: $5 billion in new capital invested in BC forestry by 2030. Hofer said the sector is turnkey — idle capacity exists right now, the workforce is ready, and the product is one customers want — and that increasing the cut to 45 million cubic metres would generate $700 million in direct revenue to government at a time when BC urgently needs it.
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