David Elstone
Will 2024 be another year of turmoil? It’s a provincial election year, which is typically when advocacy magic happens, but in the case of BC, will the politicians be listening more to the woes of the forest sector or that of the ENGOs? Here’s my quick prognostication on what to expect:
- Softwood lumber trade agreement? – Given the distraction of the US election, do not hold your breath waiting.
- Direction of North American markets in 2024? Market direction largely will depend on what the US Federal Reserve does with the federal funds rate. China does not look to be a major market mover. All in, we are likely to experience a sideways to modestly positive market.
- BC forest policy will remain the slow-moving train wreck that it is. …If you thought the implementation of old growth deferrals has been disruptive, you had better buckle up given the Province’s Biodiversity and Ecosystem Health Framework (although implementation could come after the election).
- BC’s Crown (public lands) timber harvest will continue to decline in 2024, although maybe not by as much as in 2023.
- The BC forest sector will continue to shrink – Challenging economic availability of log supply (including lack of permits) will cause sawmills and other forest products manufacturers to curtail or outright close. Interior collective agreements expired in 2023 without much progress.
- Will a new cross-laminated timber (CLT) type, value-added wood products mass timber plant be proposed? Probably not, but if there is, it will likely be in partnership with a First Nations.