British Coumbia’s caribou and the economics of extinction

By Peter Tsigaris, Thompson Rivers University
Armchair Mayor
June 1, 2026
Category: Forestry
Region: Canada West

BRITISH COLUMBIA’s caribou are disappearing, and they may be warning us about something much larger than the fate of a single species. A recent paper by former Thompson Rivers University economics student Trang Minh Phan, A Student Journal on Sustainability and Environment, examines the relationship between old-growth forest conservation and caribou recovery in British Columbia. The findings are important. Without stronger habitat protection, some caribou herds may face local extinction within decades. One herd in particular illustrates a modern ecological tragedy of the commons. The Itcha-Ilgachuz herd in the Cariboo region once numbered close to 3,000 animals in the early 2000s. By 2019, that population had collapsed to approximately 185 caribou. In one simulated scenario, strong protection of old-growth forests, allows the Itcha-Ilgachuz herd to recover above conservation targets within a decade. In another scenario involving limited regulation, recovery remains slow and uncertain. Under continued unrestricted logging, the herd eventually collapses toward extinction by 2035.

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