Kevin Lynch
We are in a global crisis, once again. This time the cause is an attack on the global trading system by the US President. …Where this trade war ultimately takes us is unknowable at this moment, but what is clear is that the postwar global system of liberalized trade and rules-based international commerce has been demolished at the whim of the President. A system built over 70 years was left in tatters in less than 70 minutes. …Shortly we will begin to know more about how the global economy responds to these tariffs, their impacts on prices and costs and supply chains, and the uncertainty they have caused for firms, workers, consumers and investors. The chaos unleashed by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in all likelihood means we are headed towards stalled growth if not an outright recession. …Canada cannot afford a business-as-usual agenda in a world turned upside down.
Canadian Forest Owners (CFO) reached out to the five federal political parties with current representation in parliament to ask how their party would support the thousands of rural communities across Canada where these forest owners live. Canadian Forest Owners represents 480,000 private forest owners from Prince Edward Island to Vancouver Island. These forest owners are largely family owned, small business, who own over a tenth of Canada’s managed forests, supporting every mill across the country, and accounting for nearly 20 percent of Canada’s total forest production. Private forest landowners provide solutions to climate change and real socio-economic development opportunities in rural communities from coast to coast. Here’s what they had to say…
President Trump’s shifting trade policies are creating uncertainty for the Canadian forestry industry. Sean McLaren, CEO of West Fraser Timber, says the potential inflationary effects of tariffs could weigh on future demand. “Looking forward, we see considerable macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly stemming from the US’s evolving tariff policies”. He said the company is planning for multiple scenarios. …RBC’s Matthew McKellar said that the outlook for the paper and forest products industry is highly uncertain when it comes to demand. “All of this uncertainty is bad for business,” said Derek Nighbor, CEO of Forest Products Association of Canada. Nighbor added that any impact on Canadian lumber companies will also affect pulp and paper: “We’ve got all of these downstream industries that depend on those inputs.” …McKellar noted that companies like West Fraser, Interfor and Canfor are geographically diverse, meaning potential softening of demand could be the bigger concern.
Major softwood producers with head offices in Canada say they have accounted for more than half of the growth in capacity in the US South over the past decade, highlighting their American investments as the Trump administration investigates lumber imports. The US South appeals to forestry companies because of the region’s abundant timber, the Canadian government said in a 57-page filing this month to the US Department of Commerce in a bid to avert potential tariffs. …In seeking to stave off tariffs, the Canadian government and several producers from Canada believe that the foray into the US South should be viewed as evidence of them being aligned with the Trump administration’s “America First” trade and investment agenda. …However, the U.S. Lumber Coalition is arguing that new tariffs are necessary. …Canadian producers are worried that if new lumber tariffs hit 25 per cent… total levies could reach nearly 60%. [to access the full story a Globe & Mail subscription is required]
James Furney, mayor of Port McNeill, BC… is trying to stay upbeat, but his lumber town was already suffering before the threat of Trump’s trade war. …“To think that anyone is going to be insulated from what is going on with Trump would be delusional,” Furney said. “We are a forestry town and people around town are already watching their wallets and curtailing their spending, and businesses that should be ramping up now to hire summer students aren’t going to be hiring.” …In short, B.C. has plenty of wood and plenty of potential buyers for it, especially in the US, which was a $5.69-billion export market for the province in 2024, but not enough of that wood has been getting cut in recent years. That makes for gloomy days on the West Coast; a malaise that could spread to Ontario and Quebec and push the industry to the brink of collapse.
The BC Lumber Trade Council is warning that threatened US tariffs stacked on top of duties against Canadian softwood could lead to soaring costs for residential construction, including in American states seeking to rebuild after natural disasters. Hurricane Helene damaged or destroyed an estimated 73,000 homes in North Carolina last fall, and wildfires burned more than 15,000 structures in California in January, the BC council said in a submission this month to the US Department of Commerce. “Significant hurricane reconstruction efforts are also underway in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee,” the council’s 55-page filing says. The submission was a response to a March 1 executive order… which also threatened new lumber tariffs, cited Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, allowing him to connect the softwood file with national security. The probe into softwood and other wood products is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year. [to access the full story a Globe and Mail subscription is required]
A coalition representing part of the US lumber industry is firing a shot at BC’s Forests Minister, who has suggested the State-side industry is not willing to engage. “
WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump partially reversed course Wednesday on his global trade war following days of market turmoil — but he’s not offering any changes to the tariffs hitting Canada. Trump immediately paused for 90 days the levies on nations slapped with the highest duties under his “reciprocal” tariff regime. A White House official later clarified that a 10 per cent baseline tariff will remain in place for all countries. The president has held fast to his plan to rapidly realign global trade through a benchmark “reciprocal” tariff — but his tariffs have spread chaos throughout global markets. …On social media, Trump said he made the decision after more than 75 countries called his administration “to negotiate a solution.” Later at the White House, the president said he lowered the levies because “people were jumping a little bit out of line.” “They were getting yippy, you know,” Trump said. “They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”
American consumers could be paying more to build new homes after the U.S. announced it will more than double existing duties on Canadian softwood lumber. “In the end, the U.S. consumer ends up paying additional money,” Supply-Build Canada president said on Tuesday. “It is an extra cost that is being passed on to the U.S. consumer and that’s not an ideal situation when you are looking for housing affordability.” Claiming that the Canadian lumber industry is unfairly subsidized, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced Friday that it planned to hike duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 
New support for forestry-sector manufacturers in the province is creating sustainable jobs, strengthening local supply chains, establishing new made-in-B.C. products and reinforcing B.C.’s position as a leader in mass-timber innovation. …Through the BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund (BCMJF), the Government of B.C. is contributing as much as $11 million toward four forestry-sector capital projects in the province. The projects are helping B.C.-based forestry-product manufacturers grow their businesses by constructing new production facilities, purchasing new equipment and adding new high-value product lines, while creating and protecting hundreds of jobs.
As of 2024 there are 2,500 sawmills in the U.S. and 850 in Canada. However, these numbers have to be looked at in context of housing starts in both countries. An interesting number: The rebuilding of 16,000 houses that burnt down in California require 4,300 fully loaded eight-axle trailer trucks with dimensioned lumber. We must be innovative and need more skilled workers. We should have a few smaller mills and/or machinery producing metric size timber for Europe and Japan. …We cannot change what is happening in the US, but despite an executive order from higher up, many mills in the US are suffering from a steady lack of timber supply and do not have the manpower or loggers required to steadily feed some of the mills. In Montana for example, 36 mills have closed over the last years because of a lack of timber supply, as well as a lack of loggers.
At the Council of Forest Industries convention, Premier David Eby underscored the provincial government’s commitment to forestry as a major project — and made it clear that forestry will be treated with the same focus and urgency, saying, “This is a shared project that we can get to that 45 million (cubic metre) target, which we all know is absolutely essential.” …Eby’s commitment to a “whole of government” approach is exactly what the sector needs. …We applaud Forest Minister Ravi Parmar’s recent announcements… Equally important is ensuring BCTS delivers its full potential. Consistently hitting 90 per cent or more of its annual harvest target is critical to a thriving wood products industry that supports communities and workers throughout the province. We also can’t lose sight of reconciliation. Increasing the distribution of stumpage fees to First Nations is one achievable step that would help advance shared prosperity and strengthen Indigenous participation in the sector.
An appeal contesting a 12-month notice period awarded to an operations specialist who had been recruited from a long-term, secure position 
By raising duties on Canadian lumber, the United States is contending that the producers benefit from unfair subsidies and sell products below market value. However, British Columbia Premier David Eby called it an “attack on forest workers and British Columbians” on April 5. …Harry Nelson, an associate professor of forestry at the University of British Columbia, said the increase stems from Washington’s annual review of its trade remedy findings. “The main reason for the significant increase is that both rates went up, the antidumping especially so.” …Nelson said some companies such as Canfor face a nearly 50 percent tariff and could be unsustainable. “Lumber margins tend to be small — certainly not 50 percent, and it is hard to imagine how Canfor will be able to continue to operate,” he said. “I would expect a curtailment in production, where higher-cost firms may either take temporary downtime or permanently shutter some more mills.”
When forestry contractor Mike Egli heard the sawmill in Vanderhoof was closing, he was expecting the worst. Egli co-owns logging contractor Dalchako Transport with his brothers. As with many local forestry companies, Dalchako’s livelihood was tied to the Plateau sawmill, Vanderhoof’s largest employer. With more than 200 workers, the sawmill was integral to the local economy. It closed at the end of December 2024. Egli has found other contracts to keep working since December, but the mill’s closure has caused a massive upheaval. “We lost all that work there,” he said. …Meanwhile, workers in Vanderhoof are looking to other industries to make a living. It’s a shift many northern B.C. workers have had to make before. …Not all workers are leaving the industry. Mayor Moutray said local forestry contractors are commuting 200 kilometres to Quesnel, B.C., for work, or flying into remote work camps to stay in forestry.
New York — Some of the last cargo ships carrying Chinese goods without crippling tariffs are arriving at US ports. Come next week, that will change. Cargo on ships from China loaded after April 9 will carry with them the 145% tariff President Donald Trump slapped on goods from that nation last month. Next week there will be fewer ships carrying less cargo. For many importers, it is too expensive to do business with China. Yet China is still one of America’s most important trading partners. It’s where we get most of our clothes, footwear, electronics and microchips, which power appliances, thermostats and anything else that beeps. …Forty-five percent of supply chain leaders expect they’ll pass the higher cost from tariffs down to their customers, according to a new survey by Gartner, a corporate research firm. …With fewer cargo ships expected at US ports, local economies will suffer immediately, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles said.
WASHINGTON – The US Commerce Department said on Wednesday it is opening a probe into national security impacts of imports of medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks and related parts into the United States. The “Section 232” investigation could form the basis of grounds to impose new tariffs on work trucks, buses, vans and other larger vehicles. Tariffs would hurt Mexico, as it is the largest exporter of trucks to the US. …Canada and Japan are also large exporters of larger trucks to the US. The Commerce Department is seeking public comment by mid-May on the extent to which domestic production of trucks and truck parts can meet domestic demand. …It also wants comments on the impacts on prices “due to foreign unfair trade practices and state-sponsored overproduction”. …Higher tariffs on commercial vehicles could put pressure on transportation costs.
President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at a trade-war deescalation with China, as Wall Street hoped the US was preparing for an off-ramp from the weeks-long trade battle. “145% is too high, it will come down substantially,” Trump said of the level of tariffs on Chinese imports. He said he was optimistic about trade talks, adding that he plans to be “very nice” to China to reach a deal. Trump’s comments came after Bessent told investors in a closed-door summit Tuesday that he sees a deescalation in the US-China tariff situation, prompting a US stock rally on Tuesday that carried into Wednesday. Bessent called the tit-for-tat tariffs with China unsustainable, echoing the sentiments shared with Yahoo Finance last week that he was optimistic about “clarity” on tariffs. …China said it is open to trade talks with the US but struck a still-defiant tone.
Developer Greg Drobot hope to sell the houses they’re building in Coos Bay for around $400,000. …Keeping costs down means paying attention to the price for every detail. Drobot said instead of plywood, the project was going to use a less-expensive oriented strand board from Canada. “When the tariffs hit, it made it almost cost-prohibitive for us to use that,” Drobot said. …Tariffs are almost certain to put Oregon’s new home construction goal further out of reach. Imported 
As tariffs reshape supply chains, more Americans may be checking packaging for the “Made in USA” label, either to sidestep import taxes or to support domestic businesses. …According to the Federal Trade Commission, to qualify for the label, US authorities must determine that a product’s final assembly or processing has taken place in the US, and that a significant portion of its manufacturing costs must also be incurred domestically. …That said, some foreign components are allowed to still qualify as “Made in USA.” — as long as they don’t substantially transform the product. …However, bilateral trade agreements can override these rules. Under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a one-time importation of a commercial product valued under $2,500 is exempt from country of origin labeling requirements.
LAS VEGAS — Canadian Steelworkers joined thousands of delegates from across the US and the Caribbean at the 2025 United Steelworkers union (USW) International Convention where a resolution calling for fair trade and an end to Trump’s reckless tariffs on Canadian goods was unanimously adopted. …USW members made it clear: Canada is not the problem. …Marty Warren, USW National Director for Canada, “These tariffs hurt workers and communities on both sides of the border. …Jeff Bromley, Chair of the USW Wood Council, “We’re not the problem – we’re here to help,” said Bromley. “We’re here to help rebuild after the fires in California, after hurricanes in the Carolinas. We’ve been your brothers and sisters, your neighbours – and we want to continue to be that. We want to grow that relationship.” The resolution calls for a permanent exemption from Section 232 tariffs… and a coordinated strategy to protect and grow union jobs across the North America.
SALEM, Oregon — The Oregon Senate on Monday passed a bill to establish a lumber-grading pilot training pilot program. “This bill opens the door for small sawmill operators to participate in local housing solutions,” said Sen. Todd Nash, R-Enterprise, the bill’s sponsor. “Forty years ago, Eastern Oregon had 69 mills. Today, only seven remain. This is a practical step to support rural economies and increase housing options using locally sourced materials.” Senate Bill 1061, otherwise known as the Oregon Forests to Homes Act, would operate through Oregon State University’s Extension Service, in partnership with the Department of Consumer and Business Services. …Once certified as a grader, a mill owner could sell his lumber directly to a builder. Certified small sawmill operators will be able to sell lumber directly to homeowners or their agents for use in single-family homes or duplexes.
Once Oregon’s largest manufacturing industry, employment in the wood product manufacturing industry has gone through large, well-publicized losses since the early 1990s. Its employment has dropped below that of computer and electronic manufacturing and food manufacturing in recent years, but it remains the third largest manufacturing industry. Despite the losses, wood product manufacturing is still a large industry in Oregon and is especially important to rural areas of the state. Over the long term, between 1990 and 2020, annual average employment in wood product manufacturing dropped 24,100, or 52%. Similar losses were experienced in all its subsectors. Sawmills and wood preservation dropped 5,900 (49%); plywood and engineered wood products dropped 9,500 (53%). …Even with the long-term decline, wood product manufacturing is still a large industry in Oregon. In 2024, there were 22,400 jobs and roughly $1.5 billion in total payroll in the industry. 
Tariffs could impact efforts to rebuild a former paper mill in Jay that was destroyed in an explosion almost five years ago. Godfrey Wood Products is looking to build a new factory on the property that would manufacture oriented strand board, a type of structural wood paneling. The company says that they have all of the permits they need, but they haven’t been able to move forward with construction because of uncertainty with tariffs. A lot of the equipment they need would come from Europe. “The stated goal of all of this tariff business is to, incentivize domestic manufacturing. Well, hell, I’m trying my level best to become a domestic manufacturer of OSB in Jay, Maine, and it seems like the public policy of the country is trying to thwart that,” said John Godfrey, owner of Godfrey Wood Products.
London—President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy and countermeasures by America’s trading partners will likely deal a heavy blow to economies worldwide, with US prosperity hit particularly hard, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday. Global economic growth will slow to 2.8% this year, from 3.3% last year and significantly below the historical average, the IMF forecast in its World Economic Outlook. The slowdown expected in the United States is even steeper, with its economy likely to grow only 1.8% in 2025, compared with a 2.8% expansion in 2024. Both predictions are more pessimistic than the fund’s January projections, which came before Trump’s flurry of tariff announcements took America’s average import tax to its highest level in a century. …North America, just like all regions, can’t expect any upside from the tariffs further down the line. “The long-term impact of the tariffs, if they are maintained, (will be) negative for all regions, just like the short-term impacts,” Gourinchas said.