Fresh trade data shows deepening US reliance on Canadian goods, even as the president claims the opposite. …According to the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US goods trade deficit with Canada widened to $4.9 billion in March, up sharply from prior months. The surge was driven by higher imports of Canadian-made cars, crude oil, and finished wood products — the exact categories Trump dismissed. Automotive imports rose by $2.6 billion, including a $2.1 billion spike in passenger vehicles, many of which are assembled in Canada. Oil and lumber purchases also increased, contributing to a 14% month-over-month jump in the broader US trade deficit, which hit a new monthly high of $140.5 billion in March. …The US typically runs a services surplus with Canada, and American firms rely heavily on Canadian supply chains in autos, energy, and materials, as the fresh BEA data suggests.
Uncertainty over international trade barriers has caused significant fluctuations in lumber prices in recent months, according to Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter. “The whipsaw fatigue of conflicting tariff announcements over two months had Western Canadian suppliers hoping to see the market settle down,” Kosman. …Some stakeholders held off on buying lumber altogether, while others ordered early in hopes of securing delivery ahead of any potential trade restrictions. “Others decidedly switched their purchasing to Southern Yellow Pine from SPF,” Kosman says. …Data from the WWPA indicates US sawmills were running at only 67% of full capacity in January, compared to 72% for the full-year 2024. In Canada, sawmill utilization was 74% of capacity, down just one percentage point compared to the previous year. …“At this time, there is significant lumber supply able to come back online at existing facilities should demand improve into the summer.”
Lumber futures fell below $550 per thousand board feet, hovering at yearly lows as excess supply from winter restocking collided added to a decline in demand. A 14.2% drop in U.S. single-family housing starts to an annualized 940,000 units in March, pushed new-home inventories to nearly eight months of supply. While a federal directive to raise timber production from public lands by 25% may ease constraints in the long term, the 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs has removed near-term urgency for buyers to cover import risks. At the same time, expectations of sharply higher anti-dumping duties on Canadian lumber have prompted mills to hold back supply, further pressuring prices as domestic inventories accumulate and demand remains subdued despite the onset of the spring building season.
NEW YORK, NY — Mercer International reported first quarter 2025 Operating EBITDA of $47.1 million, a decrease from $63.6 million in the same quarter of 2024 and $99.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, net loss was $22.3 million compared to $16.7 million in the first quarter of 2024 and net income of $16.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. Mr. Juan Carlos Bueno, Chief Executive Officer, stated: “There was continued strength in pulp markets and an improving lumber pricing environment in the first quarter of 2025. However, our operating results in the quarter were negatively impacted by annual planned maintenance downtime at our Celgar mill and the impact of the weaker dollar against the euro.
Statistics Canada says the Canadian economy shrunk in the month of February, but declines might not last long, as early signs for March point to moderate GDP growth. The agency says real gross domestic product decreased 0.2% in February. This follows previous growth in the month of January of 0.4% overall. While goods-producing industries pulled the economy up in January, Statistics Canada says it saw a decline of 0.6% overall for February. …Statistics Canada says 12 of the country’s 20 industrial sectors saw declines in February. But the manufacturing sector bucked the trend — that industry saw a 0.6% rise in February. …Advanced information from Statistics Canada indicates that real GDP increased by 0.1 per cent last month. The agency says the annualized growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 based on the March flash estimate is 1.5 per cent.
Risks are high that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, in which scores said US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have damaged business sentiment. Just three months ago, the same group of economists covering nearly 50 economies had expected the global economy to grow at a strong, steady clip. …While Trump has suspended the heaviest tariffs imposed on almost all trading partners for a few months, a 10% blanket duty remains, as well as a 145% tariff on China, the United States’ largest trading partner. …Showing unusual unanimity… three-quarters of economists cut their 2025 global growth forecast, bringing the median to 2.7% from 3.0% in a January poll. …China and Russia were forecast to grow 4.5% and 1.7% respectively, outperforming the US. However, growth forecasts for Mexico and Canada were downgraded from January by some of the largest margins, to 0.2% and 1.2%.
VANCOUVER, BC – West Fraser Timber reported first quarter results of 2025. …First quarter sales were $1.459 billion, compared to $1.405 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. First quarter earnings were $42 million, compared to a loss of $62 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. The fourth quarter included a non-cash impairment loss of $70 million. …First quarter Adjusted EBITDA was $195 million compared to $140 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. ..The Lumber segment has experienced a slower than expected start to the year, owing to transportation and weather challenges that have influenced shipments as well as uncertainty related to demand impacts from the U.S. administration’s shifting tariff policies. …The global pulp market has begun to experience disruption with the economic impact of US tariffs creating considerable demand uncertainty in Chinese markets. As such, we anticipate NBSK pricing weakness over the near- to medium-term and a potentially significant adverse financial impact on our Pulp & Paper segment.
Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first quarter by 0.3%, with imported goods being a large contributor to the decline as the suppliers prepared for President Trump’s tariff proposals once he took office. NAHB estimates this should even out in the second quarter. Other economic data of note are inflation, which is still elevated but creeping downward, and the unemployment rate, which remains low but may edge up among economic uncertainty. …NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz hasn’t hit the panic button yet. And I still think that we don’t know what President Trump’s economy really is yet. It’s been policy by sledgehammer, and now they’re going to start putting the pieces back together.” NAHB Senior Officers and staff continue to actively engage with lawmakers on this and other policies, including a special BUILD-PAC Capital Club event this week featuring an interview with Sen. Tim Sheehy.
Tuesday marked the 100th day of President Trump’s second term in office and there are signs of stress and jitters in the US construction industry, with rising prices, falling confidence, and a sharp uptick in abandoned projects. “Lumber and metals prices shot up in March, while contractors’ inboxes are bulging with ‘Dear Valued Customer’ letters announcing further increases for many products,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist at AGC. “Rapid-fire changes in tariffs threaten to drive prices higher for many essential construction goods,” he added. The price of materials and services used in nonresidential construction rose 0.4% in March, the third monthly increase in a row, AGC said. It was the first time since September 2023 that input prices had risen for three consecutive months, and comes after more than a year of stable or falling prices, Simonson said. …Within the 0.4% hike, lumber and plywood rose 2.7%.
To kick off National Home Remodeling Month in May, which promotes the benefits of hiring a professional remodeler, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has highlighted 
The US economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 on an import surge at the start of President Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war. Gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to a Commerce Department report adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation. This was the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 of 2022. Economists had been looking for a gain of 0.4% after GDP rose by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, over the past day or so some Wall Street economists changed their outlook to negative growth, largely because of an unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April. …The more telling number for the future of the expansion was consumer spending, and it grew, but at a relatively weak pace,” said Robert Frick. 
The clock is ticking on trade deals that the US will need to strike with many nations, most notably China, to avoid what Trump’s Treasury Secretary has described as an “unsustainable” tariffs war. But in the U.S. farming sector, the damage has already been done and the economic crisis already begun. US agriculture exporters say the global backlash to President Trump’s tariffs is punishing them, especially a decline in Chinese buying of US farm products, leading to cancelled export orders and layoffs. Peter Friedmann, of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition …says “massive” financial losses are already being shared by its members. …A wood pulp and paperboard exporter reported to the trade group the immediate cancellation or hold of 6,400 metric tons in a warehouse and a hold of 15 railcars sitting in what is known in the supply chain as “demurrage,” when fees are charged for delayed movement of goods.
Drax Group plc on May 1 
UK — Housing starts in the UK have lagged behind completions for the sixth successive quarter, including to the latest official data. Around 32,000 homes were started in the last quarter of 2024, compared to just over 49,000 completed during the same period, according to the Office for National Statistics. The number of starts is down from 37,000 in the preceding quarter and well below the average of 42,000 homes which have been started per quarter since the ONS resumed gathering the data after the pandemic in April 2022. Completions have remained more stable, rising in the last quarter of 2024 from 41,500 in the third quarter, with an average of just over 49,000 completions a year since the pandemic. Pocket Living chief executive Paul Rickard said: “By any measure these are a disappointing set of figures and continue to highlight the massive challenge the government has.”