Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Since the pandemic housing boom fizzled out in 2022, the number of unsold completed new homes has been on a steady climb. The number of unsold completed new single-family homes in October 2024 (113,000) was the highest level since August 2009 (118,000)—although still far below the all-time high in September 2007 (194,000). This raises the question: Is rising standing inventory simply a sign that the new construction market is normalizing after a historic pandemic housing boom, or do builders—particularly in areas where unsold inventory is increasing the most—need to make further affordability adjustments, such as cutting prices or offering greater incentives? …Meritage Homes CEO says they’re building more spec inventory because they’re expecting a ‘strong’ 2025 spring market. …Housing analyst Kevin Erdmann thinks it’s a bullish—not bearish—sign for builders. …High standing inventory could prompt builders to offer discounts or slow down activity in Texas and Florida, suggests housing analyst Rick Palacios Jr.

The forest products industries faced a year of significant change in 2024, marked by shifting market dynamics and unexpected challenges. From fluctuating demand and pricing to an increasing emphasis on biofuel innovations, the sector underwent remarkable transformations. ResourceWise shares eight pivotal predictions that will shape the forest products industry in 2025. 

1. 2025 is poised to become a pivotal year for supply chain transparency
2. Eastern and Western Economies Drift Further Apart Amid Renewed Trade Tariffs
3. Timberland Values Pivot to Carbon Amid Shifting Market Dynamics
4. The U.S. South Will Attract Global Attention with Competitive Pulp Mill Prospects
5. Lumber Market to Rebound in Late 2025 with New Mill Announcements on the Horizon
6. Global Investors Will Eye the U.S. Forest Products Market Due to Competitive Advantages 
7. High Fiber Costs in the Nordics Will Force Pulp Mill Closures Amid Russia-Ukraine Crisis
8. AI Won’t Take Over the World

US mortgage rates climbed closer to 7%, threatening to squeeze buyers trying to crack into the housing market. The average on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.91% as of Jan. 2, up from 6.85% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. A measure from the Mortgage Bankers Association advanced 8 basis points to 6.97% in the period ended Dec. 27, a nearly six-month high. High borrowing costs are weighing on affordability. …“It’s not exactly a good way to start the new year,” said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp. “Industry experts are coming to the consensus that 2025 is another year of higher for longer for the housing market. It’s not great news.” Mortgage rates tend to track Treasury yields, which continued to climb in late December after Federal Reserve policymakers projected a slower pace of interest-rate cuts in 2025 amid sticky inflation.

Rollercoaster market moves in the final days of 2024 offered a blunt reminder that investors are heading into a year of living dangerously. Stocks and bonds lurched lower after the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year, spooked by the notion that the central bank may be unable to keep cutting rates (as it had previously expected to) because of still-simmering inflation. The key is what Fed chair Jay Powell was careful not to say but what every fund manager knows: Donald Trump’s economic agenda could be bad for growth, fuel inflation, or even both. So for the first time in many years, investors have what they call “two-way risk” in the Fed policy. The central bank might be able to keep on cutting — the hunch is that this would be Trump’s preference. But it’s not outlandish to suggest it might start raising rates again instead. 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0%. …The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. …The release includes estimates of GDP by industry. Private goods-producing industries increased 1.5%, private services-producing industries increased 3.6%, and government increased 2.1%. Overall, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP.

The Forest Service sells timber that can be used to build homes and make paper products, among other things… Goals for timber sales are set yearly but the Forest Service has missed those goals by about 10% in recent years. According to the agency, factors such as staffing and buyer interest affected timber sales… The Forest Service’s average timber target was about 6,281,000 hundred cubic feet (CCF) per year, and its average amount of timber sold was about 5,590,000 CCF per year, from fiscal years 2014 through 2023. The Forest Service did not meet its targets for the amount of timber sold for any of the years from fiscal years 2014–2023. Full report available here.