Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Lumber prices surged to around $580 per thousand board feet in January, marking a six-week high, as uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber imports to the U.S. stoked panic buying. The looming 25% tariff proposed by President-elect Trump has prompted U.S. buyers to rapidly secure inventories ahead of anticipated price hikes, further escalating demand. With Canadian lumber already subject to an average 14.4% import duty, the additional tariff is expected to push prices even higher. U.S. reliance on Canadian softwood lumber remains substantial, as Canada supplies a significant portion of the country’s lumber needs. While alternative suppliers, such as Germany and Sweden, may partially fill the gap, they lack the capacity to match Canada’s production in the long run. Meanwhile, domestic challenges, including workforce shortages and sawmill closures, are limiting U.S. production, contributing to ongoing supply constraints. [END]

The mere threat of tariffs being tacked onto Canadian lumber imports in the U.S. is raising fears of panic buying that could roil lumber markets and prices. “A number of Canadian lumber companies are now advising customers that they will add 25% to lumber exports to the U.S. when the tariff is announced,” global wood analyst Russ Taylor wrote. Taylor cites Nic Wilson, CEO of the Denver Group Mass Timber Summit in the US. In an email to BIV, a spokesperson for West Fraser said: “West Fraser has not issued blanket emails to customers regarding potential Trump tariffs.”  …Whether the warning letters are real or rumour, it underscores the uncertainty roiling lumber markets as a result of Trump’s tariff threats. There could be some “panic buying” as American buyers try to build February and March inventories at current prices in anticipation of a 25% spike, Wilson writes.

Related coverage in the Globe and Mail: Canadian sawmills brace for Trump’s threatened tariffs on top of existing softwood lumber duties

When the boss of the us Lumber Coalition took the podium at the Global Wood Summit in Vancouver, he did not have to tell his mostly Canadian audience to hold their applause. “I’m not going to make a lot of eye contact,” Zoltan van Heyningen said. …Canadian wood used to flow into the United States at quite a clip. Exports are now running at levels last seen in the 1970s, thanks to the fact that softwood lumber is the subject of the longest-running trade dispute between the two countries. …Trade war aside, Canada’s lumber industry is suffering, thanks to wobbling prices, wildfires and insect infestation that have led to mill closures and job cuts. …Canadians want a new softwood-lumber agreement. The US is in no hurry to give them one. …Kevin Mason, with ERA Forest Products Research said, “This is a battle going back to the early 1800s. It’s not going to change.” [to access the full story an Economist subscription is required]