Category Archives: Finance & Economics

Mortgage loan applications saw little change in April, as refinancing activity decreased. The Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume based on the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, experienced a 0.4% month-over month increase on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. However, year-over-year, the index is up 29.3% compared to April 2024. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 10 basis points in April, reaching 6.8%, according to the MBA survey. As rates edged higher, purchase activity posted a modest 1.9% month-over-month gain (SA), while the Refinance Index declined by 1.4% (SA). Compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are down 37 bps, and thus, purchase applications are higher by 11.2%, while refinance activity has jumped 62.0%.

In related news: US Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises

The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady later on Wednesday amid fears that President Trump’s tariffs will rekindle inflation and slow economic growth. The decision to keep the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate between 4.25% and 4.5% is widely expected by financial markets despite the president’s repeated demands for the Fed to lower interest rates. …Trade tensions have led to a sharp drop in consumer confidence. But they’ve yet to put much of a dent in the job market. …So long as tariffs threaten to put upward pressure on prices, the Fed will be inclined to keep interest rates relatively high, in an effort to prevent inflation from spiking again. That calculation could change, however, if the job market softens and unemployment starts to climb. Ordinarily, that would push the central bank toward lowering interest rates.

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in the first quarter by 0.3%, with imported goods being a large contributor to the decline as the suppliers prepared for President Trump’s tariff proposals once he took office. NAHB estimates this should even out in the second quarter. Other economic data of note are inflation, which is still elevated but creeping downward, and the unemployment rate, which remains low but may edge up among economic uncertainty. …NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz hasn’t hit the panic button yet. And I still think that we don’t know what President Trump’s economy really is yet. It’s been policy by sledgehammer, and now they’re going to start putting the pieces back together.” NAHB Senior Officers and staff continue to actively engage with lawmakers on this and other policies, including a special BUILD-PAC Capital Club event this week featuring an interview with Sen. Tim Sheehy.

Tuesday marked the 100th day of President Trump’s second term in office and there are signs of stress and jitters in the US construction industry, with rising prices, falling confidence, and a sharp uptick in abandoned projects. “Lumber and metals prices shot up in March, while contractors’ inboxes are bulging with ‘Dear Valued Customer’ letters announcing further increases for many products,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist at AGC. “Rapid-fire changes in tariffs threaten to drive prices higher for many essential construction goods,” he added. The price of materials and services used in nonresidential construction rose 0.4% in March, the third monthly increase in a row, AGC said. It was the first time since September 2023 that input prices had risen for three consecutive months, and comes after more than a year of stable or falling prices, Simonson said. …Within the 0.4% hike, lumber and plywood rose 2.7%.

Housing’s share of the economy grew to 16.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the highest reading since the third quarter of 2022 and is up 0.2 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2024. The more cyclical home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment (RFI) – was 4.1% of GDP, up from 4.0% in the previous quarter. The second component – housing services – was 12.3% of GDP, up from 12.2% in the previous quarter. The graph below stacks the nominal shares for housing services and RFI, resulting in housing’s total share of the economy. …In the first quarter, RFI added 5 basis points to the headline GDP growth rate, marking the second straight quarter of positive contributions.

To kick off National Home Remodeling Month in May, which promotes the benefits of hiring a professional remodeler, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has highlighted recent data from the American Community Survey (ACS) that shows almost half of the owner-occupied homes in the U.S. were built before 1980 and have a median age of 41 years. The aging housing stock, combined with insufficient new home inventory, indicates the remodeling market is poised for future growth. The U.S. owner-occupied housing stock has aged rapidly, particularly since the Great Recession, as ACS data analyzed by NAHB shows that around 48% of the housing stock dates back to the 1980s and earlier. The median age of owner-occupied homes climbed to 41 years in 2023, up from 31 years in 2005.

Consistent with soft sentiment data, the count of job openings for the overall economy and construction fell in March as employers slowed hiring plans amid a broader economic slowdown, per the March Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The number of open jobs for the overall economy declined from 7.48 million in February to 7.19 million in March. This is notably smaller than the 8.09 million estimate reported a year ago and reflects a softened aggregate labor market. Previous NAHB analysis indicated that this number had to fall below 8 million on a sustained basis for the Federal Reserve move on interest rate reductions. With estimates remaining below 8 million for national job openings, the Fed, in theory, should be able to cut further despite a recent pause. However, tariff proposals may keep the Fed on pause in the coming quarters.

The US economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 on an import surge at the start of President Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war. Gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to a Commerce Department report adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation. This was the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 of 2022. Economists had been looking for a gain of 0.4% after GDP rose by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, over the past day or so some Wall Street economists changed their outlook to negative growth, largely because of an unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April. …The more telling number for the future of the expansion was consumer spending, and it grew, but at a relatively weak pace,” said Robert Frick. 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 7.9 points in April to 86.0 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased 0.9 points to 133.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. …Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board said, “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. …In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”

Massachusetts Rep. Stephen Lynch is hitting out at the Trump administration, criticizing the president for his tariff war that he said is having an adverse effect on the construction industry in his district. “Tariffs on 140 countries at the same time, treating Canada the same way we treat China was a terrible mistake,” “I would have hoped for a balanced scheme. …”With the market going down, with the strength of the dollar receding, I think he’s a bit worried Treasury bills are not as desirable,” Lynch said. …”I come out of the construction industry, so we’ve got a bunch of projects in my district that are ready to go. The community’s on board, and yet the developers are afraid to put a shovel in the ground. “Is it going to cost 25% more with the tariffs on Canada, all of our lumber, steel, aluminum, aggregate concrete, all of that?

The homeownership rate declined to 65.1% in the first quarter of 2024, the lowest level since the first quarter of 2020, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). Amid elevated mortgage interest rates and tight housing supply, housing affordability is at a multidecade low. Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004, the homeownership rate is 4.1 percentage points lower and remains below the 25-year average rate of 66.3%. Homeownership rates declined across nearly all age groups over the past year, except those aged 65 and older. Among younger households, the homeownership rate for those under 35 rose slightly to 36.6% in the first quarter of 2024. However, it is still hovering at the lowest rate in the last 6 years. This age group, particularly sensitive to mortgage rates and the inventory of entry-level homes, saw the largest decline among all age categories.

Tariffs on key home-building materials — particularly softwood lumber — could significantly increase the cost of new homes in the United States. With the country already facing a housing shortage and widespread affordability challenges for many, new tariffs could price out over 100,000 more prospective home buyers. Home builders reported in April 2025 that existing tariffs had already increased costs by $10,900 per home, according to the NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). …The Trump administration has opened an investigation into whether imports of lumber and related products threaten U.S. national security — an inquiry that could result in tariffs. New duties on Canadian softwood lumber, the primary source of U.S. imports, could lead home construction costs to surge. …More than 70% of lime and gypsum, critical for drywall and plaster, are imported from Mexico. The Trump administration has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican goods.

US consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions. Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation. Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak. Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.

The need for affordable housing in the United States has never been greater. …Research from federal mortgage backer Freddie Mac estimates that the U.S. is short 3.7 million housing units relative to current market needs, while the National Association of Realtors pegs the figure even higher at 5.5 million units. …Experts cite a variety of factors that contribute to difficulties adding housing stock. …While the national supply of housing has been lagging overall, some parts of the country have managed to add homes faster than others. States that have experienced the most housing growth in recent years are largely found in the Mountain West and Sun Belt regions, which tend to be less expensive than heavily developed coastal markets and have fewer regulations limiting construction. …Below is a complete breakdown of housing growth across nearly 800 U.S. counties (grouped by size) and all 50 states. 

WASHINGTON — Americans’ trust in President Trump to bolster the US economy appears to be faltering, with a new poll showing that many people fear the country is being steered into a recession and that the president’s broad and haphazardly enforced tariffs will cause prices to rise. Roughly half of US adults say that Trump’s trade policies will increase prices “a lot” and another 3 in 10 think prices could go up “somewhat”. …While skepticism about tariffs is increasing modestly, that doesn’t mean the public is automatically rejecting Trump or his approach to trade. …Not quite 100 days into Trump’s second term in the White House, people around the country are bracing for possible disruptions in how they spend, work and live. The US economy remains solid for the moment with moderating inflation and a healthy 4.2% unemployment rate, yet measures such as consumer confidence have dropped sharply.