Category Archives: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Opinion / EdiTOADial

Canada-US Softwood Lumber Trade: When Trade Becomes Tactics

By Russ Taylor
Russ Taylor Global
November 12, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Russ Taylor

Over the course of my fifty-year career, I have never seen so much misinformation, distortion and political theatre as in 2025. …The recent surge in rhetoric and written attacks aimed at Canada and its softwood lumber industry has been both amusing and perplexing. …The momentum of misinformation continues, with US protectionism and the unrealistic notion of self-sufficiency in softwood lumber production being vigorously promoted. The underlying strategy is clear: penalize all exporters with tariffs to reduce imports, leverage US Trade Law to escalate Canadian duties, inflate US lumber prices, and thus force US lumber buyers to subsidize domestic timber and lumber producers. In this climate, free or fair trade has become undesirable for American lumber companies, especially since the burden of higher-priced lumber—both domestic and imported due to excessive tariffs—is ultimately borne by consumers, home builders and renovators.

US Trade Law has evolved into a permanent tool against Canadian lumber imports, relying on complex methodology to produce calculated duties. Paired with the current US tariff policy, these mechanisms serve to work against all lumber exporters to the US. …While hard facts are the foundation of sound analysis, the intentionally opaque nature of the duty and tariff system makes accessing reliable data difficult. …In conclusion, I urge people to revisit President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 speech on free trade and tariffs, as well as the reports of numerous economists who oppose tariffs. The United States will continue to require billions of board feet of Canadian and other imported lumber. Tariffs will only heighten price volatility and drive prices higher. Fair trade stands to benefit both consumers and producers on both sides of the border, whereas protectionism will result in distinct winners and losers.

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Editor’s Note: Following “Rigged by Design?” — Clarifying Commerce’s Method

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor
The Tree Frog Forestry News
November 12, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Following Tree Frog News’ November 7 op-ed, “Rigged by Design? How Method and Policy Keep U.S. Lumber Duties High”, the US Lumber Coalition responded (Understanding Why Duties Persist — Not Because of Arbitrary Math, But Because of Past and Ongoing Harm) noting that the Department of Commerce did not use “zeroing” in its latest anti-dumping calculation. The note below clarifies what Commerce actually applied and what remains unresolved.

Following publication, the US Lumber Coalition pointed out that the Department of Commerce did not use “zeroing” in its latest anti-dumping calculation. In reviewing the record, Tree Frog News found that Commerce applied a differential-pricing framework, which uses statistical tests to determine comparison methods.¹ However, a 2020 WTO panel found that this framework could produce mathematically similar distortions to zeroing — in effect, “replicating the problem without using the name.”² but because the most recent review record is largely redacted and the WTO Appellate Body remains inactive, there has been no external review of how this method performed in the most recent review.

The more important question, then, is whether the procedural change has addressed the sources of bias identified in past WTO rulings — specifically in how Commerce calculates anti-dumping margins, measures subsidies, and selects its review periods — which continue to produce duty levels that appear inconsistent with actual market conditions. Tree Frog News will continue to report as new information emerges.

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Understanding Why Duties Persist — Not Because of Arbitrary Math, But Because of Past and Ongoing Harm

By Zoltan van Heyningen, Executive Director
The US Lumber Coalition
November 10, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Zoltan van Heyningen

TreeFrogNews recently published an opinion by its Editor Kelly McCloskey. As is often the case for those trying to defend Canada’s softwood lumber trade practices, they must rely on arguments that are irrelevant to the current round of antidumping and countervailing duty cases against unfairly traded Canadian lumber imports. In this instance, Mr. McCloskey’s criticism of the zeroing methodology is beside the point, because the US Department of Commerce did not use zeroing when calculating the antidumping duty rates that are currently in place.

Canada’s unfair trade practices are real. The harm to US companies, workers, and communities is real. Government aid to Canada’s lumber industry, whether provincial or federal, is a subsidy, because providing government money to an industry is the very definition of a subsidy no matter how it is presented. Canada is entitled to its own system and to decide what role the Canadian government plays with respect to its lumber industry. Canada is not entitled to unrestrained access to the US market for its massive excess lumber capacity and production while that industry benefits from subsidies and engages in well-documented dumping practices. Canada is also not entitled to maintain a USMCA Chapter 10 dispute settlement system that is different from any other bilateral or multilateral dispute settlement system.

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Rigged by Design? How Method and Policy Keep U.S. Lumber Duties High

Kelly McCloskey, Editor
Tree Frog Forestry News
November 7, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kelly McCloskey

Every so often, a technical story reveals a simple truth—showing how easily numbers, once baked into the system, can become policy. A recent essay by analyst Alice Palmer… shows how the US Department of Commerce’s anti-dumping calculations turn fair trade into a numerical fiction—and why, even as markets shift, the duties stay high. …Palmer’s finding naturally raises a broader question: if one methodological choice can create a margin from nothing, are other elements in the system doing similar work? …Tree Frog reached out to Palmer and looked further into how the duty calculations are made—first, anti-dumping, then countervailing duties and finally timing. Taken together, the analysis points to a consistent pattern: much of the duty burden reflects method and timing rather than market reality. …If the anti-dumping and countervailing duties were recalculated using complete data (no zeroing), domestic benchmarks (no non-comparable price substitution), and up-to-date prices (no cycle lag), their combined rate—now roughly 35%—could fall to minimal levels.

In the wider context, the methodological issues described here are not just statistical—they reflect a system without an effective referee. The WTO Appellate Body remains dormant after the US blocked new appointments, and the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement (known in Canada as CUSMA and in the United States as USMCA) offers no practical remedy. The usual checks on bias have eroded, leaving little recourse for affected industries. Political-risk analyst Robert McKellar argues that this represents “a structural vulnerability: when the rules are written by the same players who benefit from them.” Just recently, the US Lumber Coalition reinforced that trend, urging that any USMCA extension be conditioned on eliminating the Chapter 10 binational panel review process—a move that would effectively eliminate external oversight of US trade-remedy decisions. …As McKellar noted, this tension between political power and economic logic typifies today’s protectionist era—a system where duties reflect not only distorted math but also the absence of a functioning arbiter to restore balance.

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Markets struggle to see the path ahead as confidence erodes and housing recovery looks unlikely before spring

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
November 3, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

As we begin to think about our 2026 forecasts, we (and the market) are challenged by the declining quality of information. Across geographies and sectors, both the quantity and quality of stats have been deteriorating over the past few years, reducing the market’s ability to understand the present context and the future outlook. …At the same time, the need for quality and timely stats is greater than ever. The full impact of seismic changes in global free and fair trade is still unfolding. Commercial pivots take time given pre-tariff inventory builds, contracts, and buyer familiarity and preference. …Producers also lack confidence, impacting the willingness to invest in (or close) assets that drive our supply/demand models. Finally, we worry about investor confidence, as assessing an appropriate risk-weighted return is much more difficult in the current environment.

As a result of the ongoing US government shutdown, much of the regular housing data (starts, permits, etc.) have not been published this month, meaning that we are flying blind, to an extent, in terms of US housing analysis. However, based upon recent solid-wood pricing trends and commentary from industry contacts, there is little to suggest that the US housing market has shown any improvement in the past few weeks. With a seasonally slower period for housing demand and homebuilding activity approaching very quickly, we are unlikely to see any marked improvement in US housing before next spring (at the earliest). …While the US housing market may see some minor tailwinds from improving affordability over the coming months, that boost to housing (and wood products) demand could be more than offset by the negative impacts of the ongoing government shutdown.

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Quebec moving ahead on land use planning while the BC ignores industry pleas

By Jim Stirling
The Logging and Sawmill Journal
October 28, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada

The province of Quebec is facing an issue its counterpart in British Columbia is resolutely ignoring. Quebec is trying—through legislation—to fairly rationalize land use planning on public lands in the province. It’s important because public lands occupy about 92% of Quebec’s surface area. The province has received a rough ride with its initial proposal, but is working toward a solution. The Quebec government introduced a bill into the legislature earlier this year proposing the creation of three priority land use zones for the province: a conservation zone, multi-purpose zone and a forest development zone. …Reactions to the bill… led to demonstrations and blockades of sawmill millyards. The government subsequently agreed to make amendments to the proposed bill with further First Nations consultation. The sides have been talking, at least, and moving however tentatively toward what will hopefully be an equitable compromise solution.

Imagine that happening in the wild west of BC. …Eby’s tactics during at least the last three years has largely been to ignore industry pleas to improve access to timber on public lands. That is despite forest companies and their dependant communities continuing to suffer as a result. An exception being the appointment of a panel to review BC Timber Sales. …The BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI) has consistently plugged away to keep the industry on the provincial government’s radar, despite its apparent indifference, adding: “The best way to support forest workers is to keep mills operating and people working.” …Most of COFI’s recommendations involve internal reorganization and co-operation and of course, a government willingness to make it happen. But nothing positive had happened by early September. Sections of the BC forest industry have already forged mutually beneficial working relationships with First Nations in the province. But more opportunities await with the parallel provincial government. 

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US Duty Calculations on Canadian Lumber Are Flawed

By Alice Palmer, freelance writer, researcher and consultant
Sustainable Forests, Resilient Industry Substack
October 21, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Alice Palmer

On October 14, the US began charging a Section 232 (“national security”) tariff of 10% on imports of Canadian softwood lumber, on top of the duties that were already being charged. The premise that imports of Canadian 2x4s, sofas and bathroom vanities are somehow a threat to America’s national security is so ludicrous it hardly deserves rebuttal (although you can read a good analysis here). …The duties, in contrast, have been promoted as being carefully calculated responses to Canadian wrongdoing. The US Lumber Coalition outlines how the duty investigations by the US Department of Commerce take over a year to complete. Even the duty rates, calculated to the hundred of a percent, give off an aura of precision and accuracy.

Nevertheless, the duty rates are every bit as ridiculous as the new tariffs; this ridiculousness is just more cleverly hidden. For example, the argument that Canadian companies pay less for their logs than American companies do has been shown to be inaccurate: cost comparisons by analysts such as Forest Economic Advisors show that Canadian mills’ log costs are often higher than those of their US neighbours. Similarly, the argument that Canadian logs are “dumped” into US markets is based on biased calculations, due to the US Commerce Department’s use of zeroing in its calculations. …Selectively including some export sales while excluding others from the calculations – biases the results against importers and yields an imposed competitive advantage to the US domestic mills. …Graphically, we can see that the higher-priced US transactions no longer balance out the lower-priced transactions, because the higher-priced transactions have been “zeroed out” (ignored in the calculations). There is an obvious bias to this calculation method!

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Forestry Can’t Be Left Behind in Canada–U.S. Trade Discussions

Forest Products Association of Canada
October 8, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Derek Nighbor

With over 200,000 direct jobs at stake, sector calls on the government of Canada to bring the same urgency to lumber as it has to steel, aluminum, and energy.

Canada’s forest sector is disappointed that yesterday’s discussions in Washington concluded without relief for 232-affected sectors, including lumber, as the long-standing Softwood Lumber dispute and recently applied tariffs on Canada’s wood manufacturing industry continue to put operations and jobs at risk across the country. While we recognize that the talks were described as substantive and appreciate that these negotiations are complex, after eight years of escalating duties on softwood lumber, the lack of tangible progress for forest sector workers and communities is deeply concerning. With more than 200,000 direct jobs and hundreds of towns and cities across Canada depending on a vibrant forest sector, lumber and forest products must be treated as a greater priority in Canada–U.S. trade discussions.

Our industry continues to face unjustified duties and tariffs that harm forestry workers here at home and raise costs for American families building and renovating their homes. We urge the Government of Canada to ensure that lumber and forest products are clearly on the agenda as talks continue this week. “We simply want to see more urgency, and frankly, we were left wanting more in the post-meeting reports coming out of yesterday’s discussions,” said Derek Nighbor, President and CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada.

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Demand is not coming to the rescue for the forest industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial: Mason

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
October 1, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date.  Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising! 

For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts.  On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.

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From decline to growth: Getting Canadian forestry’s swagger back

By Derek Nighbor, FPAC President and CEO
The Hub
September 19, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada

Derek Nighbor

Canada’s forest-dependent communities are at a critical point. Rising global demand creates an opportunity to bring more Canadian wood products to the world, while simultaneously growing jobs, building more homes, and reducing fire risks here at home. But as the Canadian economy faces significant upheaval and needs to transform, the industry and its 200,000 employees can’t do it alone. The current trade environment is volatile. Increased duties on softwood lumber exports to the US and related trade uncertainty threaten Canadian forestry’s ability to deliver at scale. …Securing the best possible outcome at the Canada-US negotiating table is job one. Exports remain the foundation of the sector and the livelihood of forest-dependent communities. Concurrent to that, we need the federal government to focus on the policy levers we can control.

The Canadian government can act now by implementing three priorities: Designating domestic wood as a strategic material in its Build Canada Homes recommendations prioritizes made-in-Canada forest products in federal housing projects to reduce emissions, accelerate build times, and support rural and northern job creation. …By strengthening competition and accountability among carriers and growing investment in trade corridors, Canada can markedly improve supply chain performance for all economic sectors. …Improving competitiveness through smarter regulation—a new approach that leverages provincial systems, reduces duplication, focuses on outcomes, and will make Canada a destination for more strategic investment in infrastructure and people. …Despite the challenging headwinds and uncertainty that abound, Canadian forestry sees a path forward to transformation and growth. That path must be anchored in a new partnership with the federal government—one that stabilizes the sector, creates greater certainty and predictability in regulation, and allows us to bring more innovative, sustainably-sourced, Made in Canada wood products to Canada and the world.

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Setting the Record Straight On Softwood Lumber Trade between Canada and the United States

By Russ Taylor and David Elstone
Russ Taylor Global and Spar Tree Group
July 27, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

As trade talks intensify between the US and Canada, those in the forest industry await what will happen with that long-term irritant of a trade file – softwood lumber. The US Lumber Coalition’s (USLC) July 2, 2025 press release, “US Self-Reliance in Softwood Lumber Hamstrung by Canadian Unfair Trade” made several inaccurate claims about the Canadian industry and softwood lumber trade. With sensitive and critical US-Canada trade negotiations ongoing, as well as the potential outcomes of the US Section 232 investigation on lumber imports, it is important to make sure there is correct information and understanding available to support both countries with meaningful dialogue. As industry consultants based in British Columbia, we are compelled to correct a number of the USLC’s claims made which provide misleading perspectives of the Canadian forest industry and its softwood lumber exports to the US market. Our goal is to apply facts against these claims together with additional commentary that we believe will provide a more accurate assessment of the US and Canada softwood lumber situation. [go to Spar Tree Group Inc. or Russ Taylor Global for full list of ‘claims and responses’, or click Read More below]

…The longer-term objective of making the US more self-reliant on domestic lumber is only a notional strategy at this point. Canada is already the high-cost supplier to the US market – in part from US import duties – and imposing higher duties (and tariffs) on imported Canadian lumber will only increase lumber prices to US consumers for years to come. It is unfortunate that the USLC makes so many unsubstantiated claims, which are designed to simply evoke emotional reactions. A clear and supported analysis of the facts with defined assumptions is a much better way to improve the dialogue and create accurate communication. The US and Canada need to work together to grow their collective share of wood products in the North American market and not to push for short-term, non-market duties and tariffs that will have potentially long-term consequences. Efforts to promote wood over steel and concrete are a much better longer-term strategy.

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2025 is a supply-side story as demand is weak across all forest product segments

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
July 7, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

In looking across the entire forest products space this year, it is abundantly clear that demand is weak across all segments. There is no expectation of an improvement in 2025 as consumption remains poor and restocking efforts are expected to be limited. As such, any hopes of better supply/demand dynamics are going to come down to supply discipline (slowbacks/downtime/closures). We have some thoughts about how this might play out in the various sectors: Timber and Timberland—Timber harvest guidance will naturally follow wood products demand. Finding a home for pulpwood has been problematic for several years and will only become more difficult amid ongoing downstream capacity shuts. New demand is possible over time, but nothing is expected in the near-term.

Solid Wood—A raft of capacity closures in both Canada and the US had brought the lumber market into better balance to begin 2025. However, with demand weakening further through the first half of 20025 (and given a bleak medium-term outlook), further capacity rationalization will be required to restore balance and lift prices (Canada will be the focus, but the US could also see shuts). In OSB, prices are already at cash- cost levels, demand could slip further in the coming months, and new greenfield capacity is slated for late ’25 and early ’26. Accordingly, closures/downtime are sorely needed. For both lumber and OSB, producers may be awaiting the outcome of the Section 232 investigation before making major changes to operations.

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Forest Product Prices And Section 232 Tariff Exposure: ERA

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
June 4, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As investors struggle to understand the implications of trade wars and the current tariff regime in the US, we offer our thoughts on the likely impacts (broken down by commodity). We note that trade parameters continue to change dramatically (e.g., tariffs blocked by the courts but then overturned on appeal). To be clear, tariffs are taxes on imports, with the degree of cost-sharing between importer and exporter determined by supply and demand. Some commodities experienced pre-tariff demand pull-forward, but, across the board, tariffs have reduced buyer appetite for any inventory accumulation and have had a generally chilling effect on investment, planning and normal business activity. We note that the ongoing Section 232 investigation into timber and timber products is sure to target lumber, but it may also expand to many others forest products. Uncertainty is now a constant in the sector.

…Tariffs on Canadian lumber imports are on hold pending the outcome of a Section 232 investigation. However, the long-standing softwood lumber dispute rumbles on; with duty rates set to more than double in the second half of 2025, price risk for S-P-F appears to be upside-weighted from current levels. SYP producers—and perhaps to a lesser extent European lumber exporters—should benefit from a drop in the volume of S-P-F going to the US when/if higher duties/tariffs are implemented. OSB and plywood could also be impacted by the Section 232 outcome. In OSB, a tariff on Canadian imports would likely see needed mill downtime north of the border.

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Replacing Canadian lumber imports with US production would take a decade (at least) and cost more than $10 billion: ERA

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
May 5, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

The US administration’s goal is clear: reduce imports and boost domestic manufacturing of wood products. Eliminating lumber imports would require an additional ~14Bbf of US domestic lumber production, representing a 40% increase on current production. …The big challenge in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is that key infrastructure is missing: logging infrastructure, sawmill infrastructure and human resources. Logging infrastructure would require increasing logging employment, and that has been on a downward slope for decades as young people find other, similarly paid work more attractive. Third-party contractors could provide logging (and permitting) support, but they would face the same problems of scaling up. Harvest restrictions since 1994 have resulted in large-diameter timber now so the logs are no longer an appropriate size for local mills. Also, roads need to be built.

Unlike in the PNW, federal lands in the South have remained active suppliers of timber, along with other willing timber suppliers (including REITs and private landowners). …If the U.S. were to replace all (or the majority) of lumber imports, we would expect to see new supply coming from the South. …Replacing imports would take a decade, at least, and cost more than $10B for sawmills alone (potentially much higher with escalating costs for steel, machinery, etc.). We also highlight challenges, albeit different ones from the PNW. Investment is a big one. In an uncertain global macroeconomic environment, we do not expect to see major capital investment announcements. …Another big challenge is end-market demand from housing activity. If construction materials and labour costs rise meaningfully on tariff and immigration policies, affordability will decline and the near- term rationale for capital investment will be eroded—even if tariffs have forced housing prices higher (i.e., the stagflation scenario).

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Strengthening Canada’s Forestry Sector with Canadian-Made Solutions

By Derek Nighbor
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
March 25, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada

Derek Nighbor

The current threat of an additional 25% US tariff facing Canada’s forest sector is an urgent wake-up call to improve our nation’s competitiveness and infrastructure, and to diversify export markets. …Our nation’s natural resources are Canada’s global competitive advantage. In recognition, the federal government has created integrated sector strategies for critical minerals, cement, and electricity. …These natural resource sector strategies are critical to a more secure, more sustainable, and more competitive economy. Forestry is an important part of that economy but has not been part of the underlying strategy.

Forestry needs a National Forest Sector Strategy to: build more homes using Canadian wood products;​ convert “wood waste” into biofuels for power;​ open new international opportunities for Canada’s wood products; and cut red tape and regulatory barriers. …FPAC advocates for the reinstatement of full funding for market expansion programs such as Canada Wood, which can open new international opportunities for Canadian forest products. …Finally, environmental and land-use policies must remain science-based and not impose unnecessary restrictions that hurt the creation of jobs, investment, and sustainable forestry operations. 

The unjust tariffs threatened by the American administration (in addition to the existing duties on softwood lumber) are a real risk to Canada’s forest sector and the broader economic relationship between the two countries. FPAC supports the federal, provincial and territorial governments in their swift tariff response, including firm countermeasures. However, for the forestry sector’s long-term health, the solution lies in domestic policy. With a robust response, Canada can mitigate the impact and emerge stronger. Expanding domestic wood use, advancing biomass and pulp market opportunities, strengthening trade resilience, and cutting regulatory barriers are critical steps in this journey. 

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Tariff uncertainty adds to risk of recession, holds back business investment and consumer spending

Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
March 3, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

It would be impossible to list the 70+ executive orders signed and published so far under the new US administration. Some of these edicts are clear and enforceable, while some have been challenged. We have discussed at length the potential impact of 25% blanket tariffs on imports of Canadian forest products. Collectively, this torrent of change has created uncertainty, slowing business decision-making—and, therefore, investment. We have seen this paralysis in the lumber markets, with buyers and sellers unsure of how to prepare for tariffs, and confusion leading to inaction. The same is true at the individual level, with mass layoffs in the public sector. Workplaces that see mass firings also tend to freeze up, slowing workflow as employees contemplate their future.

Recessions can be caused by shocks to the system on the supply or the demand side. There is no question that the executive orders to date have shocked the systems of both government and international trade; this has apparently been intentional. The question is whether or not supply, demand and labour can respond appropriately with minimal disruption. Over time, clearly, they can in an economy as dynamic and entrepreneurial as that of the US; in the short-term, however, there is a risk that uncertainty holds back both business investment and consumer spending. …High interest rates have held back both housing demand and housing supply. If tariffs are indeed implemented, prices should rise and rates will not fall (unless a recession ensues).

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AAC Determinations – Wrong All This Time?

By David Elstone and Jim Girvan
The Spar Tree Group and Industrial Forest Service
December 2, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Jim Girvan

A recent article in the Business In Vancouver (BIV) makes serious allegations into the process used by the province’s Provincial Chief Forester to determine the allowable annual cut (AAC), claiming the “BC timber harvest is vastly overestimated.” The BIV article is based on a “leaked” consultants’ report prepared for a group of First Nations whose traditional territory overlaps with the Mackenzie Timber Supply Area (TSA). …It challenges the Chief Forester’s role in protecting the public interest with respect to sustainable forest management, reading more as an “I gotcha moment” which questions the Timber Supply Review (TSR) process that underpins the setting of AACs across the province.

…The workings of the TSR and AAC determination are not a “dirty secret” or a “black box” process, but rather, one that is routinely replicated by knowledgeable and qualified professionals. Using the inputs that are largely cited and noted, the modelled timber supply projections can be easily reproduced. …Looking at the Mackenzie TSR process in all three of its public reports, it would appear to be a well-documented, lengthy process that took into consideration input from many stakeholders including the collaborative technical working group formed between local First Nations and the BC government. The resultant AAC determination appears to be an informed judgment made by the Chief Forester that draws a balance between the social, environmental and economic objectives of the Crown.

…The consultants believe the full adoption of their assumptions, having a more conservative approach to manage for uncertainties should have been used. …We would suggest BIV’s editor look to produce more balanced editorial because it is difficult to take the BIV seriously considering the one-sided language used to make the case that there is something not right in BC forestry. …Aside from the sensationalism of the BIV article, whichever side you believe, there is a need to investigate these claims given the risk to erosion of the public’s confidence in the province’s sustainable management of its forests.

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COFI Statement on Mill Closures in British Columbia

By Kim Haakstad, President & CEO
BC Council of Forest Industries
December 2, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

Kim Haakstad

VANCOUVER, BC — For too many people across this province, the consequences of inaction for the struggling forestry sector are no longer theoretical — they are happening in real time. We have been sounding the alarm that the situation in BC is dire and today is further evidence that the sector needs an urgent response from our government. While softwood lumber duties and trade uncertainty add significant pressure, not everything can be blamed on the dispute. It is important to focus on the areas within our control, and those remain the core issues facing BC forestry: access to predictable, economic wood supply and the ability to operate in a competitive and efficient regulatory environment.

The solutions are well known and long overdue. The provincial government must urgently:

  • Remove barriers to getting wood moving — by improving the efficiency and timeliness of cutting permits and road-building approvals, and fast-tracking improvements to BC Timber Sales
  • Address operating costs — both at the harvest level and in manufacturing facilities
  • Support First Nations with the capacity and tools to expedite referrals, co-develop land use plans, and increase revenue sharing—so that partnerships can move at the speed of opportunity

“We acknowledge the recent steps taken by the federal government. …But the most effective way to protect workers is to keep their workplaces open. Now the Province must act with urgency to stabilize wood supply, restore competitiveness, and reverse the steady loss of jobs and investment. Without swift, decisive action, BC will continue to see more closures. …COFI and our members are at the table, ready to work with government, First Nations, labour, and communities to find solutions that can stabilize the sector and rebuild confidence. But we need the province to step up now — not months from now, not after further losses. The time for urgent action was yesterday.”

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Changing Nothing and Expecting Different Results

By Bob Brash, Serving BC’s forest sector for over 50 years
Tree Frog Submitted Editorial
November 10, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada West

Bob Brash

Between the long-simmering softwood lumber dispute and Donald Trump’s renewed tariffs, the hardships facing BC’s forest sector have rarely been greater. Keeping people working and facilities operating challenges even the best of us in this industry. After the recent federal-provincial Forest Summit, some credit is due to both levels of government for at least attempting to provide relief—along with what we hope is a genuine effort to diversify our markets and products. However, much more collaboration and concrete commitment are needed before we can judge these efforts effective. Many suspect the current plans may offer only limited short-term benefit. …Our financial resilience—and therefore our ability to even more assertively innovate, attract investment, and modernize our facilities—has been severely weakened. The result: we are less able to meet society’s changing expectations while sustaining a viable industry.

How has government responded? By blaming Trump for our woes—criticism he may deserve—but largely ignoring its own role in undermining the prosperity of BC’s forest sector. A familiar analogy comes to mind: a strong structure requires a solid foundation. For our industry, that foundation is the regulatory environment we operate within—and it’s failing. …In short, government is expecting different results while changing nothing—and we all know what that defines. …Real leadership begins with accepting the situation as it is and moving decisively toward practical, shared solutions. Unfortunately, there’s little sign of that happening. Over my career, I’ve seen this sector innovate repeatedly to sustain BC’s prosperity. We’ve done it before—and we can do it again. But not with both hands tied behind our back while standing on a grumbling foundation.

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Forestry is the solution for a stronger British Columbia

By Kim Haakstad (COFI) and Peter Lister (TLA)
The Times Colonist
September 22, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

As leaders gather this week at the 2025 Union of BC Municipalities’ convention to chart the future of British Columbia, forestry must be central to those discussions. Forestry touches communities of every size in every part of BC It is not just an industry — it is part of BC’s fabric. And at a time of pressing challenges, forestry offers solutions: for rural, urban and Indigenous communities, it can and should be a unifying force. …Yet the sector faces headwinds. US softwood lumber duties exceed 35%, global markets remain volatile and further tariff increases loom. These forces are beyond our control, but they make action at home urgent. In challenging times, we need to focus on solutions that make us stronger together — solutions that are about “and”, not “or.”

Recent polling shows 87% of British Columbians agree that effectively developing natural resources is key to future growth. That means economy and environment. Reconciliation and jobs. …Premier David Eby has recognized this by naming forestry as a major project known as the “path to 45 million cubic metres.” BC’s allowable annual cut is around 60 million cubic metres. We’re harvesting barely half of that, and many mills are down to one shift. That means lost jobs, lost opportunities and declining community stability. The good news is: forestry doesn’t need years of permitting. We already have the people, the infrastructure and the supply chain in place. We can unleash forestry now, while new mines, LNG facilities and clean energy projects work their way through the approval process. Closing that gap matters — not just for companies, but for communities across BC. If we can reach the 45 million target harvest, government tax revenues would increase over $500 million per year from stumpage and non-stumpage revenues. 

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Need to rethink forest management — even in our national parks

By Jason Krips, CEO, Alberta Forest Products Association
The Calgary Herald
July 31, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

Jason Krips

The wildfires that swept through Jasper National Park in 2024 were devastating — but they weren’t unpredictable. They were the foreseeable result of years of policy choices: the decision to leave forests untouched, to restrict active management, and to allow risk to build in the name of preservation. Alberta’s forests are disturbance-driven — they rely on natural events like wildfire to renew, diversify, and maintain ecological balance. But over the past century, we’ve suppressed these disturbances to protect communities, infrastructure and wildlife. Without fire, forests don’t regenerate naturally. And without policy tools that allow for active interventions like harvesting, we’re left with dense, aging stands vulnerable to fire and pests. Now, in 2025, we face an urgent question: will we continue down the same path, or will we modernize our approach to forest management — even in places long considered off-limits, like national parks?

…Our members don’t operate inside the park, but they do operate next to it, and what happens within the park’s boundaries doesn’t stay there. …In 2017, we warned that aging forests, pine beetles, and hot, dry summers were creating a perfect storm. In 2024, that danger became reality. …We need a national parks policy to reflect this reality. It should encourage science-based, ecologically sensitive management tools like thinning, selective harvesting, and prescribed fire across the entire park — tools that reduce fuel loads and restore healthier forest structures. Beyond parks, we also need to revisit legislation like the Species at Risk Act. In Alberta, this law currently prevents management in large areas of older forest, ironically putting caribou and other species at greater risk when those forests inevitably burn. …Canada’s forests, inside and outside of parks, are among our greatest national assets. But if we want to protect them, we need to manage them. 

Additional coverage in the Rocky Mountain Outlook, by Glen Grossmith: LETTER: In support of rethinking forest management “It’s encouraging to see attention drawn to the real, actionable strategies that can make a difference in the face of escalating wildfires.”

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Out of the Box Idea for Wildfire Resiliency

By David Elstone, Managing Director
The Spar Tree Group
June 17, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Forestry in BC is more than harvesting trees, it is also becoming about wildfire resiliency. …As a broad generalization, the future of wildfire management is more than putting fires out but increasingly it is learning how to live with fire. …That happens with active forest management work such as stand thinning and fuel reduction treatments. Specifics of such depend on the ecological characteristics of the areas to receive treatments. Another reality is that forestry is no longer practiced without First Nations consultation and input. In fact, due to growing forest tenure ownership and now with leadership in forest landscape planning, forestry in BC forestry… is clearly evolving from an industry centric sector to one that looks like a triangulation of Wildfire Resiliency: Indigenous Forestry: Forest Industry….To effectively and urgently treat millions of hectares of forests for resiliency to wildfire, the amount of required funding is magnitudes greater than what is being applied today.

…So here is an idea that does not need government funds, just motivation that brings together the three sides of the triangle as described above: Create large scale temporary stewardship areas, in the thousands of hectares where there are homogenous forests of an age range – say between 20 years to 40 years old – where qualified operators could thin stands from below, following a broad stand management prescription for the area. Planning work with First Nations should be done in advance for the entire area. …No tenure, no conventional cutting permit, just an application/timber mark. No appraisal – just say $1/m3 stumpage. Make it so there are no negative repercussions to AAC cut control so existing forest tenure licensees should have no concern. …Doing this work at scale will drive investment in more efficient equipment. Mills receive steady and reliable fibre to keep operating and maintain jobs. Government and First Nations get more wildfire resilient forested landscapes, raising the quality of forests increases other values like moose, and carbon management etc.

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Out of the Box Idea for Wildfire Resiliency

David Elstone, Managing Director
The Spar Tree Group
June 17, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Forestry in BC is more than harvesting trees, it is also becoming about wildfire resiliency. …As a broad generalization, the future of wildfire management is more than putting fires out but increasingly it is learning how to live with fire. …That happens with active forest management work such as stand thinning and fuel reduction treatments. Specifics of such depend on the ecological characteristics of the areas to receive treatments. Another reality is that forestry is no longer practiced without First Nations consultation and input. In fact, due to growing forest tenure ownership and now with leadership in forest landscape planning, forestry in BC is fast becoming synonymous with Indigenous forestry. …To effectively and urgently treat millions of hectares of forests for resiliency to wildfire, the amount of required funding is magnitudes greater than what is being applied today. …So here is an idea that does not need government funds, just motivation that brings together the three sides of the triangle as described above:

Create large scale temporary stewardship areas, in the thousands of hectares where there are homogenous forests of an age range – say between 20 years to 40 years old – where qualified operators could thin stands from below, following a broad stand management prescription for the area. Planning work with First Nations should be done in advance for the entire area. …No tenure, no conventional cutting permit, just an application/timber mark. No appraisal – just say $1/m3 stumpage. Make it so there are no negative repercussions to AAC cut control so existing forest tenure licensees should have no concern. …Doing this work at scale will drive investment in more efficient equipment. Mills receive steady and reliable fibre to keep operating and maintain jobs. Government and First Nations get more wildfire resilient forested landscapes, raising the quality of forests increases other values like moose, and carbon management etc.

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Getting To The Heart – The BC Timber Sales Review

By David Elstone
Right from the Stump – Spar Tree Group
April 17, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

The BCTS Review that was launched in January 2025, and co-chaired by Brian Frenkel, Lenny Joe and George Abbott, is nearing an end for public input intake. The BC government describes this initiative as a periodic review to ensure BCTS is evolving in an ever-changing marketplace while meeting its mandate commitments. The reality is that BCTS performance has been seriously impacted over the last few years. This review comes as the Premier seeks to meet his mandated target for a timber harvest of 45 million m3. Raising the BCTS harvest off its historic lows will help the Premier in his drive to 45!

BCTS harvest data speaks for itself. Although BCTS is supposed to represent 20% of the harvest on average, it has rarely met that 20% level over the past decade. The BCTS harvest fell to a low of just 10% of the overall provincial harvest in 2023. Given that the overall provincial harvest was also severely depressed, a BCTS harvest at 10% of total was a pretty dismal achievement. However, in 2024 and based on a running 12-month moving total, BCTS has increased it’s proportion of the provincial harvest to approximately 12%. BCTS harvest performance actually outperformed non-BCTS harvesting in 2024 and so far, is continuing to do so in the first quarter of 2025. Despite the recent improvement, the overall issue for the forest sector is that an average BCTS harvest of 10 million m3 has shrunk to 4 million m3.

According to the BC government’s recently announced BC Budget 2025, the outlook for BCTS harvest is positive. Elstone continues in his piece by pointing out the challenges ahead, and proposing his own suggested solutions.

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Glimmers of hope for directional change on the trajectory of BC’s forest sector

By Bob Brash, TLA Executive Director
Truck LoggerBC Magazine
April 1, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

Well, 2025 will prove to be an interesting year ahead. …Provincially there are some glimmers of hope for some directional changes to the current trajectory of BC’s forest sector through the appointment of an energized and determined Minister of Forests. At the recent TLA convention, there also seemed to be acknowledgment that the need for change was recognized with the Premier and Minister. …The government’s forestry mandate appears to be granted for firm actions, even more so with our obvious need for more self-reliance as a country. But muddying the background is the reality that anything that needs to be accomplished must be done within the spectre of massive provincial deficits and a hiring freeze. Where to start?

There needs to be a review of all the current policies, legislation, and regulations to ensure they mesh with the overall vision and contribute towards its successful implementation. It is fair to say the cumulative array of constraints over the last decades encircling the forest sector have been decidedly negative. …Albeit a complex and onerous task, the hope is the creation of renewed investment certainty for all those making their decisions towards the future of the sector. …There must be a meaningful transition plan and set of actions in place to ensure the components of the sector survive while these changes are being contemplated and implemented. …An effective transition plan requires government to work hand-in-hand with the industry towards ensuring a level of harvest is agreed upon and delivered to at least minimally sustain all concerned over these next few years. And it means giving decision-makers of permitting and delivery programs the authority and support to make those tough interim decisions. It also means that the short-term harvest level to sustain our sector is not the plus or minus 32 million m3 currently happening.

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Planting a tree can seem like an easy win for the planet but are we missing the forests for the trees?

By Alicia Cramer, Chief Operating Officer – US Endowment for Forestry and Communities
US Endowment for Forestry and Communities
March 20, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: United States

Planting a tree can seem like an easy win for the planet. It’s a popular pledge for corporations and organizations eager to participate in sustainability programs and promote environmental responsibility. But here’s the catch: not all trees have the same impact, and not all tree-planting efforts contribute to forest sustainability. As we approach International Day of Forests, it’s worth asking: Are we missing the forests for the trees? Many sustainability programs focus on planting but often overlook the critical role of future forest management — particularly the need for processes like forest thinning. Thinning removes competitive trees which allows the healthiest trees to grow larger and more valuable, and be better equipped to withstand droughts, wildfires, diseases and insect infestations.

…By 2030, the World Economic Forum has made a goal to conserve, restore and grow one trillion trees around the world. This is a noble cause, but we must ask ourselves how many of these trees will provide the desired effects of carbon sequestration, water management, soil erosion prevention, biodiversity and possible forest products? …We must continue to grow the understanding that harvesting trees is not inherently harmful; it is responsible harvesting that ensures forest health. Less than 2% of working forest land is harvested each year, which provides a steady supply of timber – used in building houses and furniture – while maintaining an ecological balance for the future.

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