Category Archives: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Opinion / EdiTOADial

Setting the Record Straight On Softwood Lumber Trade between Canada and the United States

By Russ Taylor and David Elstone
Russ Taylor Global and Spar Tree Group
July 27, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

As trade talks intensify between the US and Canada, those in the forest industry await what will happen with that long-term irritant of a trade file – softwood lumber. The US Lumber Coalition’s (USLC) July 2, 2025 press release, “US Self-Reliance in Softwood Lumber Hamstrung by Canadian Unfair Trade” made several inaccurate claims about the Canadian industry and softwood lumber trade. With sensitive and critical US-Canada trade negotiations ongoing, as well as the potential outcomes of the US Section 232 investigation on lumber imports, it is important to make sure there is correct information and understanding available to support both countries with meaningful dialogue. As industry consultants based in British Columbia, we are compelled to correct a number of the USLC’s claims made which provide misleading perspectives of the Canadian forest industry and its softwood lumber exports to the US market. Our goal is to apply facts against these claims together with additional commentary that we believe will provide a more accurate assessment of the US and Canada softwood lumber situation. [go to Spar Tree Group Inc. or Russ Taylor Global for full list of ‘claims and responses’, or click Read More below]

…The longer-term objective of making the US more self-reliant on domestic lumber is only a notional strategy at this point. Canada is already the high-cost supplier to the US market – in part from US import duties – and imposing higher duties (and tariffs) on imported Canadian lumber will only increase lumber prices to US consumers for years to come. It is unfortunate that the USLC makes so many unsubstantiated claims, which are designed to simply evoke emotional reactions. A clear and supported analysis of the facts with defined assumptions is a much better way to improve the dialogue and create accurate communication. The US and Canada need to work together to grow their collective share of wood products in the North American market and not to push for short-term, non-market duties and tariffs that will have potentially long-term consequences. Efforts to promote wood over steel and concrete are a much better longer-term strategy.

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2025 is a supply-side story as demand is weak across all forest product segments

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
July 7, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

In looking across the entire forest products space this year, it is abundantly clear that demand is weak across all segments. There is no expectation of an improvement in 2025 as consumption remains poor and restocking efforts are expected to be limited. As such, any hopes of better supply/demand dynamics are going to come down to supply discipline (slowbacks/downtime/closures). We have some thoughts about how this might play out in the various sectors: Timber and Timberland—Timber harvest guidance will naturally follow wood products demand. Finding a home for pulpwood has been problematic for several years and will only become more difficult amid ongoing downstream capacity shuts. New demand is possible over time, but nothing is expected in the near-term.

Solid Wood—A raft of capacity closures in both Canada and the US had brought the lumber market into better balance to begin 2025. However, with demand weakening further through the first half of 20025 (and given a bleak medium-term outlook), further capacity rationalization will be required to restore balance and lift prices (Canada will be the focus, but the US could also see shuts). In OSB, prices are already at cash- cost levels, demand could slip further in the coming months, and new greenfield capacity is slated for late ’25 and early ’26. Accordingly, closures/downtime are sorely needed. For both lumber and OSB, producers may be awaiting the outcome of the Section 232 investigation before making major changes to operations.

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Forest Product Prices And Section 232 Tariff Exposure: ERA

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
June 4, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As investors struggle to understand the implications of trade wars and the current tariff regime in the US, we offer our thoughts on the likely impacts (broken down by commodity). We note that trade parameters continue to change dramatically (e.g., tariffs blocked by the courts but then overturned on appeal). To be clear, tariffs are taxes on imports, with the degree of cost-sharing between importer and exporter determined by supply and demand. Some commodities experienced pre-tariff demand pull-forward, but, across the board, tariffs have reduced buyer appetite for any inventory accumulation and have had a generally chilling effect on investment, planning and normal business activity. We note that the ongoing Section 232 investigation into timber and timber products is sure to target lumber, but it may also expand to many others forest products. Uncertainty is now a constant in the sector.

…Tariffs on Canadian lumber imports are on hold pending the outcome of a Section 232 investigation. However, the long-standing softwood lumber dispute rumbles on; with duty rates set to more than double in the second half of 2025, price risk for S-P-F appears to be upside-weighted from current levels. SYP producers—and perhaps to a lesser extent European lumber exporters—should benefit from a drop in the volume of S-P-F going to the US when/if higher duties/tariffs are implemented. OSB and plywood could also be impacted by the Section 232 outcome. In OSB, a tariff on Canadian imports would likely see needed mill downtime north of the border.

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Replacing Canadian lumber imports with US production would take a decade (at least) and cost more than $10 billion: ERA

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
May 5, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

The US administration’s goal is clear: reduce imports and boost domestic manufacturing of wood products. Eliminating lumber imports would require an additional ~14Bbf of US domestic lumber production, representing a 40% increase on current production. …The big challenge in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is that key infrastructure is missing: logging infrastructure, sawmill infrastructure and human resources. Logging infrastructure would require increasing logging employment, and that has been on a downward slope for decades as young people find other, similarly paid work more attractive. Third-party contractors could provide logging (and permitting) support, but they would face the same problems of scaling up. Harvest restrictions since 1994 have resulted in large-diameter timber now so the logs are no longer an appropriate size for local mills. Also, roads need to be built.

Unlike in the PNW, federal lands in the South have remained active suppliers of timber, along with other willing timber suppliers (including REITs and private landowners). …If the U.S. were to replace all (or the majority) of lumber imports, we would expect to see new supply coming from the South. …Replacing imports would take a decade, at least, and cost more than $10B for sawmills alone (potentially much higher with escalating costs for steel, machinery, etc.). We also highlight challenges, albeit different ones from the PNW. Investment is a big one. In an uncertain global macroeconomic environment, we do not expect to see major capital investment announcements. …Another big challenge is end-market demand from housing activity. If construction materials and labour costs rise meaningfully on tariff and immigration policies, affordability will decline and the near- term rationale for capital investment will be eroded—even if tariffs have forced housing prices higher (i.e., the stagflation scenario).

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Strengthening Canada’s Forestry Sector with Canadian-Made Solutions

By Derek Nighbor
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
March 25, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada

Derek Nighbor

The current threat of an additional 25% US tariff facing Canada’s forest sector is an urgent wake-up call to improve our nation’s competitiveness and infrastructure, and to diversify export markets. …Our nation’s natural resources are Canada’s global competitive advantage. In recognition, the federal government has created integrated sector strategies for critical minerals, cement, and electricity. …These natural resource sector strategies are critical to a more secure, more sustainable, and more competitive economy. Forestry is an important part of that economy but has not been part of the underlying strategy.

Forestry needs a National Forest Sector Strategy to: build more homes using Canadian wood products;​ convert “wood waste” into biofuels for power;​ open new international opportunities for Canada’s wood products; and cut red tape and regulatory barriers. …FPAC advocates for the reinstatement of full funding for market expansion programs such as Canada Wood, which can open new international opportunities for Canadian forest products. …Finally, environmental and land-use policies must remain science-based and not impose unnecessary restrictions that hurt the creation of jobs, investment, and sustainable forestry operations. 

The unjust tariffs threatened by the American administration (in addition to the existing duties on softwood lumber) are a real risk to Canada’s forest sector and the broader economic relationship between the two countries. FPAC supports the federal, provincial and territorial governments in their swift tariff response, including firm countermeasures. However, for the forestry sector’s long-term health, the solution lies in domestic policy. With a robust response, Canada can mitigate the impact and emerge stronger. Expanding domestic wood use, advancing biomass and pulp market opportunities, strengthening trade resilience, and cutting regulatory barriers are critical steps in this journey. 

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Tariff uncertainty adds to risk of recession, holds back business investment and consumer spending

Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
March 3, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

It would be impossible to list the 70+ executive orders signed and published so far under the new US administration. Some of these edicts are clear and enforceable, while some have been challenged. We have discussed at length the potential impact of 25% blanket tariffs on imports of Canadian forest products. Collectively, this torrent of change has created uncertainty, slowing business decision-making—and, therefore, investment. We have seen this paralysis in the lumber markets, with buyers and sellers unsure of how to prepare for tariffs, and confusion leading to inaction. The same is true at the individual level, with mass layoffs in the public sector. Workplaces that see mass firings also tend to freeze up, slowing workflow as employees contemplate their future.

Recessions can be caused by shocks to the system on the supply or the demand side. There is no question that the executive orders to date have shocked the systems of both government and international trade; this has apparently been intentional. The question is whether or not supply, demand and labour can respond appropriately with minimal disruption. Over time, clearly, they can in an economy as dynamic and entrepreneurial as that of the US; in the short-term, however, there is a risk that uncertainty holds back both business investment and consumer spending. …High interest rates have held back both housing demand and housing supply. If tariffs are indeed implemented, prices should rise and rates will not fall (unless a recession ensues).

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Devoting time and energy on potential tariffs is in itself a tax on industry

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director
ERA Forest Products Research
February 4, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

Tariff anxiety continues and is now refocused on the latest “deadline”. Despite all the tumult and spilt ink, markets are generally ascribing a low probability to duties actually being introduced. While tariff speculation is dominating conversations between buyers and sellers… we have heard no reports of meaningful pre-buying or “insurance” purchases. This is unsurprising given various supply-chain constraints, the high cost of working capital, and the difficultly of developing new relationships in short order. Buyers want protection against tariffs, but that isn’t going to happen because the US can’t self-supply most forest products. Buyers will pay up. 

For some commodities, imports (and imports from Canada specifically) are a small part of US domestic consumption, so would be easier to replace. For others (including lumber, OSB, newsprint and uncoated mechanicals), replacing imports would be slow and expensive, allowing suppliers to pass on all—or almost all—of the tariff amount to consumers. In some cases, producers straddle the border and may be able to slow/idle Canadian operations while running their US assets at full tilt. …However, if some producers expect the tariff regime to be a mere negotiating ploy, with the possibility they could be reduced/removed over the next year, drastic actions (i.e., outright closures in Canada and/or new mills in the US) would not be taken. Everyone is trying to navigate through these times, with no easy answers other than “be prepared.”  

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US Lumber Market Chaos Looming from Proposed Tariffs

By Russ Taylor, President
Russ Taylor Global
January 10, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, United States

With President-elect Trump set to take over the Oval Office on January 20, the Canadian lumber industry looks to be taking action… advising customers that they will add 25% to lumber exports to the US when the tariff is announced. With Canadian mills already paying an average of 14.4% import duties on US shipments, they have no alternative but to increase prices by the 25% to cover the potential tariff. Nic Wilson, CEO of the Denver Mass Timber Group Summit reports that… “multiple big Canadian mills sent out the same public announcement.” As a wholesale lumber purchaser/trader, Mr. Wilson’s view is that “the market will panic buy to cover their February and March inventories. Legitimately people are gambling right now. …The crazy part is, we do not actually know if Trump will or will not add the tariff. It is all a wild ass speculation. …This is textbook… Selling the rumor and buying the facts.”

This market reaction comes after Trump’s earlier comments this week that: We don’t need their lumber. We have massive fields of lumber. We have to unrestrict them, because stupid people put, you know, restrictions on.” Of course, this is another Trump mis-truth – in more ways than one. …He does not seem to understand that you need capital (harvesting machines, logging trucks) and skilled labour to ramp up any log harvests. So, unrealistic in the short term. And then you need sawmilling capacity which could be ramped somewhat, but US mills are already running at around 85% of capacity. …So, waiting to see what Trump will do with 25% tariffs has already spooked the markets. Let us see what Trump’s strategy really is, as the tariffs will backfire very quickly if implemented, causing higher prices and inflation and the potential of shortages and job losses. Interesting times!

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Need to rethink forest management — even in our national parks

By Jason Krips, CEO, Alberta Forest Products Association
The Calgary Herald
July 31, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

Jason Krips

The wildfires that swept through Jasper National Park in 2024 were devastating — but they weren’t unpredictable. They were the foreseeable result of years of policy choices: the decision to leave forests untouched, to restrict active management, and to allow risk to build in the name of preservation. Alberta’s forests are disturbance-driven — they rely on natural events like wildfire to renew, diversify, and maintain ecological balance. But over the past century, we’ve suppressed these disturbances to protect communities, infrastructure and wildlife. Without fire, forests don’t regenerate naturally. And without policy tools that allow for active interventions like harvesting, we’re left with dense, aging stands vulnerable to fire and pests. Now, in 2025, we face an urgent question: will we continue down the same path, or will we modernize our approach to forest management — even in places long considered off-limits, like national parks?

…Our members don’t operate inside the park, but they do operate next to it, and what happens within the park’s boundaries doesn’t stay there. …In 2017, we warned that aging forests, pine beetles, and hot, dry summers were creating a perfect storm. In 2024, that danger became reality. …We need a national parks policy to reflect this reality. It should encourage science-based, ecologically sensitive management tools like thinning, selective harvesting, and prescribed fire across the entire park — tools that reduce fuel loads and restore healthier forest structures. Beyond parks, we also need to revisit legislation like the Species at Risk Act. In Alberta, this law currently prevents management in large areas of older forest, ironically putting caribou and other species at greater risk when those forests inevitably burn. …Canada’s forests, inside and outside of parks, are among our greatest national assets. But if we want to protect them, we need to manage them. 

Additional coverage in the Rocky Mountain Outlook, by Glen Grossmith: LETTER: In support of rethinking forest managementIt’s encouraging to see attention drawn to the real, actionable strategies that can make a difference in the face of escalating wildfires.”

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Out of the Box Idea for Wildfire Resiliency

By David Elstone, Managing Director
The Spar Tree Group
June 17, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Forestry in BC is more than harvesting trees, it is also becoming about wildfire resiliency. …As a broad generalization, the future of wildfire management is more than putting fires out but increasingly it is learning how to live with fire. …That happens with active forest management work such as stand thinning and fuel reduction treatments. Specifics of such depend on the ecological characteristics of the areas to receive treatments. Another reality is that forestry is no longer practiced without First Nations consultation and input. In fact, due to growing forest tenure ownership and now with leadership in forest landscape planning, forestry in BC forestry… is clearly evolving from an industry centric sector to one that looks like a triangulation of Wildfire Resiliency: Indigenous Forestry: Forest Industry….To effectively and urgently treat millions of hectares of forests for resiliency to wildfire, the amount of required funding is magnitudes greater than what is being applied today.

…So here is an idea that does not need government funds, just motivation that brings together the three sides of the triangle as described above: Create large scale temporary stewardship areas, in the thousands of hectares where there are homogenous forests of an age range – say between 20 years to 40 years old – where qualified operators could thin stands from below, following a broad stand management prescription for the area. Planning work with First Nations should be done in advance for the entire area. …No tenure, no conventional cutting permit, just an application/timber mark. No appraisal – just say $1/m3 stumpage. Make it so there are no negative repercussions to AAC cut control so existing forest tenure licensees should have no concern. …Doing this work at scale will drive investment in more efficient equipment. Mills receive steady and reliable fibre to keep operating and maintain jobs. Government and First Nations get more wildfire resilient forested landscapes, raising the quality of forests increases other values like moose, and carbon management etc.

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Out of the Box Idea for Wildfire Resiliency

David Elstone, Managing Director
The Spar Tree Group
June 17, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Forestry in BC is more than harvesting trees, it is also becoming about wildfire resiliency. …As a broad generalization, the future of wildfire management is more than putting fires out but increasingly it is learning how to live with fire. …That happens with active forest management work such as stand thinning and fuel reduction treatments. Specifics of such depend on the ecological characteristics of the areas to receive treatments. Another reality is that forestry is no longer practiced without First Nations consultation and input. In fact, due to growing forest tenure ownership and now with leadership in forest landscape planning, forestry in BC is fast becoming synonymous with Indigenous forestry. …To effectively and urgently treat millions of hectares of forests for resiliency to wildfire, the amount of required funding is magnitudes greater than what is being applied today. …So here is an idea that does not need government funds, just motivation that brings together the three sides of the triangle as described above:

Create large scale temporary stewardship areas, in the thousands of hectares where there are homogenous forests of an age range – say between 20 years to 40 years old – where qualified operators could thin stands from below, following a broad stand management prescription for the area. Planning work with First Nations should be done in advance for the entire area. …No tenure, no conventional cutting permit, just an application/timber mark. No appraisal – just say $1/m3 stumpage. Make it so there are no negative repercussions to AAC cut control so existing forest tenure licensees should have no concern. …Doing this work at scale will drive investment in more efficient equipment. Mills receive steady and reliable fibre to keep operating and maintain jobs. Government and First Nations get more wildfire resilient forested landscapes, raising the quality of forests increases other values like moose, and carbon management etc.

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Getting To The Heart – The BC Timber Sales Review

By David Elstone
Right from the Stump – Spar Tree Group
April 17, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

The BCTS Review that was launched in January 2025, and co-chaired by Brian Frenkel, Lenny Joe and George Abbott, is nearing an end for public input intake. The BC government describes this initiative as a periodic review to ensure BCTS is evolving in an ever-changing marketplace while meeting its mandate commitments. The reality is that BCTS performance has been seriously impacted over the last few years. This review comes as the Premier seeks to meet his mandated target for a timber harvest of 45 million m3. Raising the BCTS harvest off its historic lows will help the Premier in his drive to 45!

BCTS harvest data speaks for itself. Although BCTS is supposed to represent 20% of the harvest on average, it has rarely met that 20% level over the past decade. The BCTS harvest fell to a low of just 10% of the overall provincial harvest in 2023. Given that the overall provincial harvest was also severely depressed, a BCTS harvest at 10% of total was a pretty dismal achievement. However, in 2024 and based on a running 12-month moving total, BCTS has increased it’s proportion of the provincial harvest to approximately 12%. BCTS harvest performance actually outperformed non-BCTS harvesting in 2024 and so far, is continuing to do so in the first quarter of 2025. Despite the recent improvement, the overall issue for the forest sector is that an average BCTS harvest of 10 million m3 has shrunk to 4 million m3.

According to the BC government’s recently announced BC Budget 2025, the outlook for BCTS harvest is positive. Elstone continues in his piece by pointing out the challenges ahead, and proposing his own suggested solutions.

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Glimmers of hope for directional change on the trajectory of BC’s forest sector

By Bob Brash, TLA Executive Director
Truck LoggerBC Magazine
April 1, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

Well, 2025 will prove to be an interesting year ahead. …Provincially there are some glimmers of hope for some directional changes to the current trajectory of BC’s forest sector through the appointment of an energized and determined Minister of Forests. At the recent TLA convention, there also seemed to be acknowledgment that the need for change was recognized with the Premier and Minister. …The government’s forestry mandate appears to be granted for firm actions, even more so with our obvious need for more self-reliance as a country. But muddying the background is the reality that anything that needs to be accomplished must be done within the spectre of massive provincial deficits and a hiring freeze. Where to start?

There needs to be a review of all the current policies, legislation, and regulations to ensure they mesh with the overall vision and contribute towards its successful implementation. It is fair to say the cumulative array of constraints over the last decades encircling the forest sector have been decidedly negative. …Albeit a complex and onerous task, the hope is the creation of renewed investment certainty for all those making their decisions towards the future of the sector. …There must be a meaningful transition plan and set of actions in place to ensure the components of the sector survive while these changes are being contemplated and implemented. …An effective transition plan requires government to work hand-in-hand with the industry towards ensuring a level of harvest is agreed upon and delivered to at least minimally sustain all concerned over these next few years. And it means giving decision-makers of permitting and delivery programs the authority and support to make those tough interim decisions. It also means that the short-term harvest level to sustain our sector is not the plus or minus 32 million m3 currently happening.

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BC forestry needs urgent action to survive potential US trade war

By David Elstone and Denise Mullen
Business in Vancouver
February 5, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: Canada, Canada West

Denise Mullen

David Elstone

The longstanding softwood lumber dispute, wherein the US persistently alleges BC subsidizes its lumber industry already has the Americans imposing a 14.4% duty on BC lumber, so an additional 25 per cent tariff could prove catastrophic, triggering layoffs, mill closures and economic turmoil in forestry-dependent communities. … Given the escalating risk of a full-scale trade war, BC must adopt innovative and assertive countermeasures to safeguard its forest sector. These measures are emergency response actions to address the regulatory and tax regime in BC and, while temporary, some could have long-term benefits after the tariffs are gone. …Given the potential for widespread sawmill closures, BC must actively seek alternative markets, particularly in Asia. Furthermore, in such extreme times as the province faces, consideration of less politically popular exporting opportunities may need to be explored.

These include temporarily eliminating fee-in-lieu charges on unmanufactured log exports… Eliminating the provincial sales tax where applicable on forestry-related transportation. …Repeal of the carbon tax and other fuel consumption-related taxes. …BC could look to pause, for now, the introduction and implementation of new environmental and forestry policies. …It is imperative to emphasize that… none of these proposals require direct financial handouts from the provincial government. Instead, the focus should be on targeted regulatory relief and cost reductions, ensuring business continuity and workforce stability. BC now faces a critical juncture — either accept mass unemployment and economic stagnation, or implement bold, temporary measures to keep the proverbial lights on for its forest sector. A decisive and calculated response is not just desirable, it is essential for the long-term sustainability of BC’s economy and the forest sector, in particular.

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Planting a tree can seem like an easy win for the planet but are we missing the forests for the trees?

By Alicia Cramer, Chief Operating Officer – US Endowment for Forestry and Communities
US Endowment for Forestry and Communities
March 20, 2025
Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial
Region: United States

Planting a tree can seem like an easy win for the planet. It’s a popular pledge for corporations and organizations eager to participate in sustainability programs and promote environmental responsibility. But here’s the catch: not all trees have the same impact, and not all tree-planting efforts contribute to forest sustainability. As we approach International Day of Forests, it’s worth asking: Are we missing the forests for the trees? Many sustainability programs focus on planting but often overlook the critical role of future forest management — particularly the need for processes like forest thinning. Thinning removes competitive trees which allows the healthiest trees to grow larger and more valuable, and be better equipped to withstand droughts, wildfires, diseases and insect infestations.

…By 2030, the World Economic Forum has made a goal to conserve, restore and grow one trillion trees around the world. This is a noble cause, but we must ask ourselves how many of these trees will provide the desired effects of carbon sequestration, water management, soil erosion prevention, biodiversity and possible forest products? …We must continue to grow the understanding that harvesting trees is not inherently harmful; it is responsible harvesting that ensures forest health. Less than 2% of working forest land is harvested each year, which provides a steady supply of timber – used in building houses and furniture – while maintaining an ecological balance for the future.

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