Category Archives: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Opinion / EdiTOADial

Swift response needed as skyrocketing diesel prices hit forestry supply chain

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

October 5, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

Rising inflation and interest rates are getting a lot of press lately for good reason, but one specific force hitting all our companies is skyrocketing diesel prices. Commentary suggests the worst is yet to come, especially as refining capacity has been targeted in various war zones. According to a recent Doomberg article, “It is now certain that a full-blown and extended global diesel emergency is unavoidable, and the only questions remaining are those of degree and fallout.” High diesel prices hurt companies from the start of the supply chain (harvesting) through to delivery of the final product. Companies across our coverage universe have called out diesel and freight-based headwinds on earnings calls and in investor presentations… most notably, Smurfit Westrock.

The reality is that US has plenty of diesel, but prices are rising due to actions in the global market. As such, US prices could be capped, and likely reduced, if the Administration halts/reduces diesel exports. That would be beneficial for many US companies/consumers, but would leave Europeans in the lurch. Given the upcoming mid-terms, it isn’t a stretch to see an export reduction, but problems would spread rapidly around the globe as the U.S. is currently the world’s largest diesel exporter. Does the U.S. share the pain or “export” the pain to others? We think the odds are on the latter. Forestry contractors around the globe are pushing for government intervention, ranging from tax relief to additional grants or supports. A swift response is needed.

By David Elstone, Managing Director

The Spar Tree Group Inc.

August 27, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

David Elstone

On August 25, 2026, Canada announced counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on targeted US products in response to the US decision to impose a 50 per cent tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. Canada’s counter-tariffs will apply to 874 product classifications, covering a matching $27.6 billion in imports from the US, with a focus on steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The retaliation marks the start of a full-scale trade war, with Canadian tariffs taking effect on September 8. …The Canadian counter-tariffs will apply to US softwood lumber, plywood, dissolving pulp, paper and packaging products—including toilet paper—kitchen cabinets, upholstered furniture and non-upholstered furniture. AcrossCanada, I estimate these US forest product imports had a value of $3.2 billion in 2025. For US forest products entering BC, I estimate their 2025 import value was $527 million.

It makes sense that paper and packaging products are a clear focus of Canadian countermeasures. Counter-tariffs targeting $2.4 billion of US paper and packaging products will cause concern. …Canada has fired back, but in a trade war, the forest sector still gets caught in the crossfire. Counter-tariffs are retaliation, not a defensive strategy that protects domestic producers from the impacts of tariffs on their export sales. The consequences are already emerging with Rayonier Advanced Materials announcing a temporary mill closure affecting its dissolving pulp production in Temiscaming, Ontario. Also there are reports Nova Scotia’s pine sawmills are facing shutdowns. Unfortunately, this is likely only the beginning.

By Derek Nighbor, CEO, Forest Products Association of Canada

The Hill Times

August 24, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

Derek Nighbor

Despite the challenges abound, Canada has every reason to remain ambitious about the future of its forest sector. We have a renewable resource, skilled workers, world-class forestry expertise, established manufacturing capacity, and deep roots in communities across the country. Forestry is one of Canada’s natural advantages and a longstanding economic pillar, supporting jobs, exports, Indigenous economic participation, and regional economies from coast to coast. There is broad political agreement on the sector’s importance. …Canada’s forest products sector is navigating a difficult period. Trade disputes continue, markets are shifting, and operating costs are rising. Those pressures are compounded by made-in-Canada barriers: overlapping rules, slow decisions, uncertain access to usable wood, and transportation costs that make it harder for Canadian producers to compete.

The Forest Sector Transformation Task Force has brought these challenges into sharper focus. Its report makes clear that transformation will require more than isolated programs or one-off projects. It calls for stable access to cost-competitive fibre, modernization at scale, stronger trade infrastructure and market access, and coordinated action to support workers and communities. Taken together, those recommendations reinforce a basic point: retooling mills, developing new products, and reaching new markets depend on predictable operating conditions from the forest floor through to the customer. The playbook is on the table. …By the end of this year, the federal government should be able to point to legislative and regulatory work underway, clearer federal-provincial coordination, more predictable timelines, practical steps to reduce duplication, and meaningful action on the cost and reliability of moving goods. …Now we need to move forward with urgency.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

August 17, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

Although both US housing starts and sales data are showing some resilience in the face of an extremely difficult and volatile macroeconomic backdrop, several alarm bells are beginning to ring for the U.S. housing market. Mortgage rates, which have moved steadily higher over the past six months, are certainly cause for concern. …At the beginning of the year most pundits, including ourselves, expected some modest near-term rate relief; we are seeing the exact opposite unfold. With the conflict in the Middle East still far from resolved, we anticipate that elevated oil/energy prices will result in continued inflationary pressures through year-end (at least) and elevated mortgage rates will continue to drag on both new home construction and home sales activity (the latter which negatively impacts wood products demand from repair and remodel).

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, it’s a coin toss whether or not the Fed hikes by 25bps when it meets in mid-September, and the CME indicates an almost 38% probability that the funds rates will be 50bps higher by year end. And unsurprisingly, homebuilder confidence continues to worsen, and the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI slipped by another 2 points to 34 in July. The NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) which measures builder sentiment in the apartment and condo market, was off by 3 points.

By David Elstone, Managing Directorid

The Spar Tree Group Inc.

August 11, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Effective August 19th, the United States will apply new US tariffs of 50% on a range of BC forest products exports to the US. …While initial news coverage tended to make light of the trade action likely because of the likely symbolic inclusion of hockey sticks, the implications for BC’s already beleaguered forest products sector are serious. …I estimate that BC exported up to approximately $991 million of forest products potentially subject to Section 338 tariffs to the US in 2025. …The impacts of these new tariffs extend well beyond hockey sticks and are likely to be felt across a broad range of forest manufacturing segments. Major producers of veneer, LVL, plywood, MDF, paper products and furniture could be affected directly. However, the impacts may be felt further down the value chain.

Determining which US duties and tariffs applied to Canadian forest products has become increasingly complex. One major difference from previous tariff threats is that the new Section 338 tariffs apply to CUSMA-compliant products, that would otherwise qualify for tariff-free access to the US market. Products already covered by Section 232 are exempt from the new Section 338 measures. This includes Canadian logs and softwood lumber, which are currently subject to a 10% Section 232 tariff as well as upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets and vanities, which currently face a 25% tariff that is scheduled to increase on January 1, 2027. There are also products that are not covered by Section 232 tariffs but are subject to softwood lumber antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties, and which may also be captured by Section 338 tariffs, resulting in a potentially devastating cumulative burden.

For all manufacturer of the products listed, it’s the indirect exposures and the potential impact on downstream supply chains that is hard to assess. …Section 338 tariffs are yet another critical blow that could lead to lower harvesting, reduced manufacturing, and potentially additional curtailments or mill closures for small and large businesses.

By Robert McKellar, Principal, Harmattan Risk

Tree Frog Forestry News

August 10, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Over the past year and a half, Tree Frog has periodically turned to political risk consultant Robert McKellar to help readers make sense of the forces reshaping the business environment for the North American forest sector. Most recently, in International Political Risk: Separating Noise From What Matters, Robert walked through how a political risk professional decides which of the world’s constant stream of headlines — tariffs, wars, trade disputes, sanctions — actually warrant a forest company’s attention, and which are just noise.

This time, Robert turns to a different, longer-running kind of risk — one that isn’t caused by any single event, but by a slow convergence of forces that can remake an entire industry over years, often without anyone recognizing it as it’s happening. Using two cases from the wood products sector — the rise of Chinese dominance in pulp and paper, and the decline of BC’s lumber industry — Robert shows how strategic risk hides in plain sight, and why it’s so often only clear in hindsight. The article closes on a practical question: if this kind of change is only clear in hindsight, how can companies improve their odds of catching it earlier? Robert’s answer is strategic risk management — less a set of day-to-day processes than a habit of thinking decades, not quarters, ahead.

By Tony Kryzanowski

Forestnet Magazine

June 30, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

Tony Kryzanowski

Canadians faced with escalating fuel costs, crushing grocery bills and higher rent are understandably less concerned about the environment these days, according to the latest public opinion polls. And predictably, politicians eager for re-election are following the polls in terms of their own priorities. But the numbers don’t lie. The world is becoming warmer and climate change is real. The consequences go far beyond the recent ferocity of repeated massive forest fires right across Canada. Given what appears to be a more muted voice in environmental advocacy these days, this is the forestry sector’s moment to present itself as Canada’s strongest champion for the environment because we undeniably have a great story to tell. …A good starting point for industry to develop its environmental advocacy strategy is to take stock.

We should revisit past important research and development initiatives as it relates to wood fibre as the feedstock. This includes further commercialization of bio-based nanotechnology from cellulose, expanding the market for mass timber products, exploring afforestation potentially with fast-growing wood species to grow the wood basket while also expanding the forest footprint to achieve greater carbon sequestration, substituting wood pellets for diesel to provide power to northern communities, and rehabilitating landscapes marred by industrial activity. …It’s astounding to think of how many billions of dollars of investment are being considered for such unproven practices as carbon dioxide sequestration from Canada’s oil and gas industry, when trees represent the largest, single natural carbon sequestration tool on the planet—and Canada has the second largest landmass in the world. …The field is now so much more wide open and desperately looking for a champion to remind us that climate change is here to stay—unless we take action and that forestry can and should be a much bigger part of the solution.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

June 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, which provides a gauge of global supply chain conditions, spiked in April and currently sits at its highest level in almost four years. Several other measures, including the World Bank’s Supply Chain Stress Index are hovering around all-time highs as well. The conflict in the Middle East and resultant spike in energy prices has clearly driven some of the recent increase in supply chain pressure, and the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz, along with some ongoing challenges in the Red Sea, have forced many vessels to take longer routes, adding travel time, increasing fuel costs, and stretching capacity.

However, the situation in Iran is not the sole driver of recent supply chain pressure: In the US we are seeing an acute shortage of truck drivers following a government crackdown on driver qualifications and after a wave of trucking-firm bankruptcies. As a result, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ long-distance trucking price index has recently jumped from a reading of 181 in January to 210 in April (also approaching all-time highs last seen during the pandemic). Similarly, overland freight pricing data from DAT Freight and Analytics shows that flatbed truck rates have surged since the onset of the Iran war—the national average spot rate for flatbed trucks was $2.72 per mile in February and has rocketed to $3.64 by May. DAT’s national load-to-truck ratio (the number of loads posted for every available truck posted on the DAT load board) sat at an eye-watering 72 in April, up from 35 in April 2025 and just 19 in April 2024.

A deal with Iran may be in the works, but as we learned after the COVID pandemic, it can take months (if not years) for supply chains to normalize. Buckle up.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

April 6, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

The conflict in Iran has extended into a sixth week. Despite growing fears about economic wreckage (we have already seen cracks in consumer sentiment, mortgage rates climbing, etc.), we have yet to see any significant second- and third-order impacts on forest products commodities (the operative word is yet). Despite President Trump’s suggestion that the US will retreat from the Middle East in the next two to three weeks, risks abound. Even with a retreat, the risk to the world’s energy arteries will likely persist; it is only a matter of time before companies in our universe suffer the consequences of the war.

Some cost inflation has shown up quickly (e.g., energy and transport) and will pressure margins as soon as Q2. While a select few companies (those in certain packaging and paper grades) may successfully hike prices to at least partially offset higher costs, for others the downside peril to underlying demand means that margin compression is a risk (prices could fall without supply reductions). As such, while our commodity price and company earnings forecasts have not declined materially, we are adopting a more cautionary approach to valuations and moving EBITDA multiples lower for companies and commodities for which we perceive at more risk. …Several producers in our space needed markets to come to the rescue this year; however, with each passing day that the world is mired in this conflict, it looks increasingly as if 2026 will become another year to survive.

By David Elstone and Russ Taylor

Spar Tree Group and Russ Taylor Global

April 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

We find ourselves once again compelled to address the US Lumber Coalition‘s (USLC) inaccurate commentary about the Canadian softwood lumber trade with the US in their March 24 release, “Canadian Imports Are Being Replaced by US Production – A Direct Result of US Trade Law Enforcement & Section 232 Tariff”. …Since October 2025, combined US duties and tariffs, averaging 45.16%, during flat periods of US demand coupled with low prices has meant that Canadian mills cannot compete until prices move higher. Consequently, it was inevitable that the highest cost producing regions in Canada would reduce shipments to the US. The USLC is endorsing these trade penalties which are essentially a subsidy for US sawmills. …Market share decline since 2016 is not just a result of duties and tariffs. …BC is the main reason for reduced Canadian lumber exports to the US. With very high domestic log costs, BC has had the lowest sawmilling margins in North America since 2017, as such, it is difficult to accept the USLC claim that BC has “unfair prices… and dumps lumber in the US.”

…Canadian lumber production has always exceeded its consumption through much of the country’s modern history – Canada has a relatively small population and a vast forest resource. …The reality is that over the last 50 years, US lumber producers been not able to fully supply the US market demand. The huge gap between US production and consumption has ranged from a low of 12.0 billion board feet in 1990 to a high of 23.6 billion board feet in 2005 and was 12.7 billion board feet in 2025. The United States has benefited from a close trading relationship with Canada, especially through consistent access to economical and reliable lumber supplies. …That gap between US consumption and domestic supply exists today because US sawmills are operating close to full production – there is no “surplus production” without more logs, more workers, more capital – which are mostly domestic issues to effect any real change in production.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

March 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

The US tariff regime is far from over despite a US Supreme Court ruling striking down last year’s tariffs authorized by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Although the court noted in its ruling that the president overstepped his authority in applying reciprocal tariffs on virtually all trading partners, it did leave the door open for other means of tariff application—and the US Administration has wasted no time in charging through that door, turning to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose new global tariffs of 10% (likely moving to 15%). Tariffs under Section 122 expire after 150 days without congressional approval, but we assume other options will be put in place before expiry (Section 232, 301 or some other creative mechanism).

With respect to the forest products industry, cessation of IEEPA tariffs and application of these new Section 122 tariffs have no impact on existing lumber duties (35% remains intact), nor for any existing tariffs under Section 232 (at 10%) or goods currently compliant under USMCA (such goods remain tariff-free under Section 122). Although USMCA-compliant goods are safe from tariffs for now, with that trade deal being reviewed this summer the tariff-free flow of goods among the US, Mexico and Canada could be upended. Since almost all newsprint supply comes from Canada (see page 19), that fear is ostensibly already causing U.S. buyers to accelerate purchases. Our table details what we know at the moment about the new tariff regime (Section 122 at 10% but probably moving to 15%). Brazil and China appear to be winners in these latest moves, but, with other mechanisms available to Trump, we don’t think these recent tariff reductions are going to lead to any dramatic increase in imports from these countries (uncertainty seems to be part of the goal under Trump’s methods).

By Robert Mckellar, Principal

Harmattan Risk

February 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Tree Frog Editor: This insight paper by political risk analyst Robert McKellar offers a strategic lens on how a second Trump administration is shaping US behaviour as a global actor — an issue with direct implications for trade-exposed sectors. McKellar is a founding partner at Harmattan Risk and the co-author of “Trump’s Second Term: Political Risk and the Forest Products Sector,” an analysis of US trade policy, tariff dynamics, and geopolitical uncertainty. In this paper, he steps back from industry-specific analysis to explore the broader strategic logic — and contradictions — underlying current US global behaviour, providing context for the policy volatility and trade uncertainty facing the sector.

Robert McKellar

The US, a lynchpin global player, has become a change bomb, and having a clear sense of the US as an agent on the world stage is critical to sense-making that can inform appropriate strategic responses. But as it stands, Trump, whose character shapes his administration, is a wildcard. He is seemingly bored to tears by stability in any issue he deals with, and bored by a set menu of priorities. …Do we resign ourselves to perpetually playing catch up with US moves and their reverberations, or is it possible to get ahead of the Trumpian storm with a reasonably accurate sketch of the US as a global actor? If its moves were guided by strategic rationality, we would be able to extrapolate some idea of its future behaviour, and even a sense of how the international system might look in a few years and the critical challenges any given state might present…

Seasoned observers of US politics and international behaviour might have foreseen some of what is happening now, but by and large they did not expect Godzilla. Thus, they have often latched onto their own predispositions to fill in the considerable blanks. This has, for the most part, yielded two poles of interpretation. One is that Trump and his team are acting on a strategic assessment, and that despite apparent mayhem their moves are rational, even coldly calculating. The other is that the US has succumbed to the baser aspects of personal rule. Thus, Trump’s eccentric character and ego are the main source of US global behaviour. …The emerging reality no doubt lies somewhere in between, but to triangulate to an approximation, we need to prod around both poles of interpretation.

By Peter Lister, TLA Executive Director

Truck LoggerBC Magazine

January 13, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

Peter Lister

Lately, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about how democracy balances the rights of the few against the interests of the majority. This is a particularly complex topic in BC, where the legal standard is higher than other provinces and where we are advancing reconciliation efforts with Indigenous and First Nations peoples. …This higher legal standard helps explain why BC faces challenges implementing policy and managing public lands. The government isn’t simply making a political choice, it’s also responding to a unique legal obligation. …Forest Landscape Plans (FLPs) are a good example of how BC’s higher legal standard is shaping government action. To abide by DRIPA, government has been working closely with First Nations to reach consensus on how to manage public lands. However, in most cases, these discussions have happened behind closed doors, with very little opportunity for the resource sector, communities, or public to provide any meaningful input.

These challenges stem not from DRIPA itself, but from how government is implementing its legal obligations under it. …At present, industry and the public are only being consulted after agreements with First Nations have already been reached. This approach is fueling frustration and eroding public trust; people do not feel that government is acting in their interests, and anger is rising. Reconciliation must remain a shared priority for all British Columbians, but this is not the correct approach. Excluding the public from meaningful engagement will result in a backlash that may harm relationships with First Nations and do irreversible damage toward our shared goal of reconciliation. Our government needs to do better. It must engage the public in genuine dialogue, explaining its goals and involving industry and communities early in the process, instead of cursory box-checking engagement after decisions have already been made.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

January 1, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

Economic Outlook: Risks abound for 2026 and beyond but we see little chance of upside surprises for global GDP growth next year. Instead, we forecast modest declines in both US and Chinese GDP in 2026, with the Eurozone growth rate nudging up slightly from depressed levels. US-driven tariffs will stabilize but remain a drag and may become the norm for the next three years. As we’ve noted before, demand won’t be driving upside for the forest sector. Interest rate relief in the US continues to lag earlier expectations (with two further, 25bps cuts expected next year), and a US housing recovery will likely be pushed out to the second half of 2026 at the earliest (potentially 2027). A further weakening of the USD relative to other major currencies will create additional headwinds for US-based producers focused on exports but should also put downward pressure on US imports.

Forest Products Outlook: For most markets, the first half of 2026 will look a lot like 2025, with oversupply resulting in weak prices and lacklustre earnings. Highlights include:

Housing starts will slip next year to 1.33MM as mortgage rates are expected to move only moderately lower. Affordability issues persist.
Log prices should trend sideways, with some markets up and others down. Demand from China could rise as its US log ban has ended.
Lumber prices will move up in 2026 as supply reductions related to high costs (duties, tariffs, etc.) begin to bite harder.
Panel prices are likely to remain rather low in 2026 due to OSB (particularly) facing oversupply issues as a couple of mills ramp up.
Pulp prices hinge on supply dynamics; the situation has changed as China has boosted its internal supply. Although prices are moving off their lows, shuts are needed to maintain upward momentum.
Newsprint demand will drop by double digits next year, but, with some mills currently offline, prices should hold until supply restarts.
Paper prices will be mixed, with expectations for an increase in uncoated woodfrees; most other grades should hold at/near year-end levels. The removal of tariffs would push prices lower.
Containerboard producers are expected to drive a price hike in Q1 given the massive capacity shuts this year. Demand will remain sluggish, but rising box shipments aren’t needed to support hikes.

By Russ Taylor

Russ Taylor Global

November 12, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Russ Taylor

Over the course of my fifty-year career, I have never seen so much misinformation, distortion and political theatre as in 2025. …The recent surge in rhetoric and written attacks aimed at Canada and its softwood lumber industry has been both amusing and perplexing. …The momentum of misinformation continues, with US protectionism and the unrealistic notion of self-sufficiency in softwood lumber production being vigorously promoted. The underlying strategy is clear: penalize all exporters with tariffs to reduce imports, leverage US Trade Law to escalate Canadian duties, inflate US lumber prices, and thus force US lumber buyers to subsidize domestic timber and lumber producers. In this climate, free or fair trade has become undesirable for American lumber companies, especially since the burden of higher-priced lumber—both domestic and imported due to excessive tariffs—is ultimately borne by consumers, home builders and renovators.

US Trade Law has evolved into a permanent tool against Canadian lumber imports, relying on complex methodology to produce calculated duties. Paired with the current US tariff policy, these mechanisms serve to work against all lumber exporters to the US. …While hard facts are the foundation of sound analysis, the intentionally opaque nature of the duty and tariff system makes accessing reliable data difficult. …In conclusion, I urge people to revisit President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 speech on free trade and tariffs, as well as the reports of numerous economists who oppose tariffs. The United States will continue to require billions of board feet of Canadian and other imported lumber. Tariffs will only heighten price volatility and drive prices higher. Fair trade stands to benefit both consumers and producers on both sides of the border, whereas protectionism will result in distinct winners and losers.

By Kelly McCloskey, Editor

The Tree Frog Forestry News

November 12, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Following Tree Frog News’ November 7 op-ed, “Rigged by Design? How Method and Policy Keep U.S. Lumber Duties High”, the US Lumber Coalition responded (Understanding Why Duties Persist — Not Because of Arbitrary Math, But Because of Past and Ongoing Harm) noting that the Department of Commerce did not use “zeroing” in its latest anti-dumping calculation. The note below clarifies what Commerce actually applied and what remains unresolved.

Following publication, the US Lumber Coalition pointed out that the Department of Commerce did not use “zeroing” in its latest anti-dumping calculation. In reviewing the record, Tree Frog News found that Commerce applied a differential-pricing framework, which uses statistical tests to determine comparison methods.¹ However, a 2020 WTO panel found that this framework could produce mathematically similar distortions to zeroing — in effect, “replicating the problem without using the name.”² but because the most recent review record is largely redacted and the WTO Appellate Body remains inactive, there has been no external review of how this method performed in the most recent review.

The more important question, then, is whether the procedural change has addressed the sources of bias identified in past WTO rulings — specifically in how Commerce calculates anti-dumping margins, measures subsidies, and selects its review periods — which continue to produce duty levels that appear inconsistent with actual market conditions. Tree Frog News will continue to report as new information emerges.

By Zoltan van Heyningen, Executive Director

The US Lumber Coalition

November 10, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Zoltan van Heyningen

TreeFrogNews recently published an opinion by its Editor Kelly McCloskey. As is often the case for those trying to defend Canada’s softwood lumber trade practices, they must rely on arguments that are irrelevant to the current round of antidumping and countervailing duty cases against unfairly traded Canadian lumber imports. In this instance, Mr. McCloskey’s criticism of the zeroing methodology is beside the point, because the US Department of Commerce did not use zeroing when calculating the antidumping duty rates that are currently in place.

Canada’s unfair trade practices are real. The harm to US companies, workers, and communities is real. Government aid to Canada’s lumber industry, whether provincial or federal, is a subsidy, because providing government money to an industry is the very definition of a subsidy no matter how it is presented. Canada is entitled to its own system and to decide what role the Canadian government plays with respect to its lumber industry. Canada is not entitled to unrestrained access to the US market for its massive excess lumber capacity and production while that industry benefits from subsidies and engages in well-documented dumping practices. Canada is also not entitled to maintain a USMCA Chapter 10 dispute settlement system that is different from any other bilateral or multilateral dispute settlement system.

Kelly McCloskey, Editor

Tree Frog Forestry News

November 7, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Kelly McCloskey

Every so often, a technical story reveals a simple truth—showing how easily numbers, once baked into the system, can become policy. A recent essay by analyst Alice Palmer… shows how the US Department of Commerce’s anti-dumping calculations turn fair trade into a numerical fiction—and why, even as markets shift, the duties stay high. …Palmer’s finding naturally raises a broader question: if one methodological choice can create a margin from nothing, are other elements in the system doing similar work? …Tree Frog reached out to Palmer and looked further into how the duty calculations are made—first, anti-dumping, then countervailing duties and finally timing. Taken together, the analysis points to a consistent pattern: much of the duty burden reflects method and timing rather than market reality. …If the anti-dumping and countervailing duties were recalculated using complete data (no zeroing), domestic benchmarks (no non-comparable price substitution), and up-to-date prices (no cycle lag), their combined rate—now roughly 35%—could fall to minimal levels.

In the wider context, the methodological issues described here are not just statistical—they reflect a system without an effective referee. The WTO Appellate Body remains dormant after the US blocked new appointments, and the Canada–US–Mexico Agreement (known in Canada as CUSMA and in the United States as USMCA) offers no practical remedy. The usual checks on bias have eroded, leaving little recourse for affected industries. Political-risk analyst Robert McKellar argues that this represents “a structural vulnerability: when the rules are written by the same players who benefit from them.” Just recently, the US Lumber Coalition reinforced that trend, urging that any USMCA extension be conditioned on eliminating the Chapter 10 binational panel review process—a move that would effectively eliminate external oversight of US trade-remedy decisions. …As McKellar noted, this tension between political power and economic logic typifies today’s protectionist era—a system where duties reflect not only distorted math but also the absence of a functioning arbiter to restore balance.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

November 3, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

As we begin to think about our 2026 forecasts, we (and the market) are challenged by the declining quality of information. Across geographies and sectors, both the quantity and quality of stats have been deteriorating over the past few years, reducing the market’s ability to understand the present context and the future outlook. …At the same time, the need for quality and timely stats is greater than ever. The full impact of seismic changes in global free and fair trade is still unfolding. Commercial pivots take time given pre-tariff inventory builds, contracts, and buyer familiarity and preference. …Producers also lack confidence, impacting the willingness to invest in (or close) assets that drive our supply/demand models. Finally, we worry about investor confidence, as assessing an appropriate risk-weighted return is much more difficult in the current environment.

As a result of the ongoing US government shutdown, much of the regular housing data (starts, permits, etc.) have not been published this month, meaning that we are flying blind, to an extent, in terms of US housing analysis. However, based upon recent solid-wood pricing trends and commentary from industry contacts, there is little to suggest that the US housing market has shown any improvement in the past few weeks. With a seasonally slower period for housing demand and homebuilding activity approaching very quickly, we are unlikely to see any marked improvement in US housing before next spring (at the earliest). …While the US housing market may see some minor tailwinds from improving affordability over the coming months, that boost to housing (and wood products) demand could be more than offset by the negative impacts of the ongoing government shutdown.

By Jim Stirling

The Logging and Sawmill Journal

October 28, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

The province of Quebec is facing an issue its counterpart in British Columbia is resolutely ignoring. Quebec is trying—through legislation—to fairly rationalize land use planning on public lands in the province. It’s important because public lands occupy about 92% of Quebec’s surface area. The province has received a rough ride with its initial proposal, but is working toward a solution. The Quebec government introduced a bill into the legislature earlier this year proposing the creation of three priority land use zones for the province: a conservation zone, multi-purpose zone and a forest development zone. …Reactions to the bill… led to demonstrations and blockades of sawmill millyards. The government subsequently agreed to make amendments to the proposed bill with further First Nations consultation. The sides have been talking, at least, and moving however tentatively toward what will hopefully be an equitable compromise solution.

Imagine that happening in the wild west of BC. …Eby’s tactics during at least the last three years has largely been to ignore industry pleas to improve access to timber on public lands. That is despite forest companies and their dependant communities continuing to suffer as a result. An exception being the appointment of a panel to review BC Timber Sales. …The BC Council of Forest Industries (COFI) has consistently plugged away to keep the industry on the provincial government’s radar, despite its apparent indifference, adding: “The best way to support forest workers is to keep mills operating and people working.” …Most of COFI’s recommendations involve internal reorganization and co-operation and of course, a government willingness to make it happen. But nothing positive had happened by early September. Sections of the BC forest industry have already forged mutually beneficial working relationships with First Nations in the province. But more opportunities await with the parallel provincial government.

By Alice Palmer, freelance writer, researcher and consultant

Sustainable Forests, Resilient Industry Substack

October 21, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Alice Palmer

On October 14, the US began charging a Section 232 (“national security”) tariff of 10% on imports of Canadian softwood lumber, on top of the duties that were already being charged. The premise that imports of Canadian 2x4s, sofas and bathroom vanities are somehow a threat to America’s national security is so ludicrous it hardly deserves rebuttal (although you can read a good analysis here). …The duties, in contrast, have been promoted as being carefully calculated responses to Canadian wrongdoing. The US Lumber Coalition outlines how the duty investigations by the US Department of Commerce take over a year to complete. Even the duty rates, calculated to the hundred of a percent, give off an aura of precision and accuracy.

Nevertheless, the duty rates are every bit as ridiculous as the new tariffs; this ridiculousness is just more cleverly hidden. For example, the argument that Canadian companies pay less for their logs than American companies do has been shown to be inaccurate: cost comparisons by analysts such as Forest Economic Advisors show that Canadian mills’ log costs are often higher than those of their US neighbours. Similarly, the argument that Canadian logs are “dumped” into US markets is based on biased calculations, due to the US Commerce Department’s use of zeroing in its calculations. …Selectively including some export sales while excluding others from the calculations – biases the results against importers and yields an imposed competitive advantage to the US domestic mills. …Graphically, we can see that the higher-priced US transactions no longer balance out the lower-priced transactions, because the higher-priced transactions have been “zeroed out” (ignored in the calculations). There is an obvious bias to this calculation method!

Forest Products Association of Canada

October 8, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Derek Nighbor

With over 200,000 direct jobs at stake, sector calls on the government of Canada to bring the same urgency to lumber as it has to steel, aluminum, and energy.

Canada’s forest sector is disappointed that yesterday’s discussions in Washington concluded without relief for 232-affected sectors, including lumber, as the long-standing Softwood Lumber dispute and recently applied tariffs on Canada’s wood manufacturing industry continue to put operations and jobs at risk across the country. While we recognize that the talks were described as substantive and appreciate that these negotiations are complex, after eight years of escalating duties on softwood lumber, the lack of tangible progress for forest sector workers and communities is deeply concerning. With more than 200,000 direct jobs and hundreds of towns and cities across Canada depending on a vibrant forest sector, lumber and forest products must be treated as a greater priority in Canada–U.S. trade discussions.

Our industry continues to face unjustified duties and tariffs that harm forestry workers here at home and raise costs for American families building and renovating their homes. We urge the Government of Canada to ensure that lumber and forest products are clearly on the agenda as talks continue this week. “We simply want to see more urgency, and frankly, we were left wanting more in the post-meeting reports coming out of yesterday’s discussions,” said Derek Nighbor, President and CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

October 1, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As we have stated multiple times over the past months, demand is not coming to the rescue for this industry, thus capacity rationalization and supply discipline are crucial. The traditional refrain in the commodity space is that “low prices are the cure for low prices.” Well, prices are depressingly low for many key commodities, notably pulp, lumber and OSB, with precious little rationalization to date. Although some current commodity prices are slightly above trough levels, costs have risen substantially since then. Many softwood pulp mills in Canada and Scandinavia are losing money at these levels, yet there has been only a smattering of downtime concentrated in Finland. The tolerance for pain has been surprising!

For lumber, even with punitive duties on Canadians, a lot of production continues to run despite losing $100‒150/mbf. SYP prices are also horribly low and stuck below cash-cost levels. US producers expect Canadians to take the brunt of the closures, but they will likely need to curtail production as well given that the substitution of SYP for S-P-F is not happening at the speed many had hoped. Canadian sawmill shuts should also spur pulp mill shuts. On OSB, mills are in the money-losing zone and there is more capacity on the horizon with Kronospan and Huber mills soon to start up. Supply needs to be removed, but aside from a couple of temporary shuts from Arbec, nothing has transpired.

By Derek Nighbor, FPAC President and CEO

The Hub

September 19, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

Derek Nighbor

Canada’s forest-dependent communities are at a critical point. Rising global demand creates an opportunity to bring more Canadian wood products to the world, while simultaneously growing jobs, building more homes, and reducing fire risks here at home. But as the Canadian economy faces significant upheaval and needs to transform, the industry and its 200,000 employees can’t do it alone. The current trade environment is volatile. Increased duties on softwood lumber exports to the US and related trade uncertainty threaten Canadian forestry’s ability to deliver at scale. …Securing the best possible outcome at the Canada-US negotiating table is job one. Exports remain the foundation of the sector and the livelihood of forest-dependent communities. Concurrent to that, we need the federal government to focus on the policy levers we can control.

The Canadian government can act now by implementing three priorities: Designating domestic wood as a strategic material in its Build Canada Homes recommendations prioritizes made-in-Canada forest products in federal housing projects to reduce emissions, accelerate build times, and support rural and northern job creation. …By strengthening competition and accountability among carriers and growing investment in trade corridors, Canada can markedly improve supply chain performance for all economic sectors. …Improving competitiveness through smarter regulation—a new approach that leverages provincial systems, reduces duplication, focuses on outcomes, and will make Canada a destination for more strategic investment in infrastructure and people. …Despite the challenging headwinds and uncertainty that abound, Canadian forestry sees a path forward to transformation and growth. That path must be anchored in a new partnership with the federal government—one that stabilizes the sector, creates greater certainty and predictability in regulation, and allows us to bring more innovative, sustainably-sourced, Made in Canada wood products to Canada and the world.

By Russ Taylor and David Elstone

Russ Taylor Global and Spar Tree Group

July 27, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

As trade talks intensify between the US and Canada, those in the forest industry await what will happen with that long-term irritant of a trade file – softwood lumber. The US Lumber Coalition’s (USLC) July 2, 2025 press release, “US Self-Reliance in Softwood Lumber Hamstrung by Canadian Unfair Trade” made several inaccurate claims about the Canadian industry and softwood lumber trade. With sensitive and critical US-Canada trade negotiations ongoing, as well as the potential outcomes of the US Section 232 investigation on lumber imports, it is important to make sure there is correct information and understanding available to support both countries with meaningful dialogue. As industry consultants based in British Columbia, we are compelled to correct a number of the USLC’s claims made which provide misleading perspectives of the Canadian forest industry and its softwood lumber exports to the US market. Our goal is to apply facts against these claims together with additional commentary that we believe will provide a more accurate assessment of the US and Canada softwood lumber situation. [go to Spar Tree Group Inc. or Russ Taylor Global for full list of ‘claims and responses’, or click Read More below]

…The longer-term objective of making the US more self-reliant on domestic lumber is only a notional strategy at this point. Canada is already the high-cost supplier to the US market – in part from US import duties – and imposing higher duties (and tariffs) on imported Canadian lumber will only increase lumber prices to US consumers for years to come. It is unfortunate that the USLC makes so many unsubstantiated claims, which are designed to simply evoke emotional reactions. A clear and supported analysis of the facts with defined assumptions is a much better way to improve the dialogue and create accurate communication. The US and Canada need to work together to grow their collective share of wood products in the North American market and not to push for short-term, non-market duties and tariffs that will have potentially long-term consequences. Efforts to promote wood over steel and concrete are a much better longer-term strategy.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

July 7, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

In looking across the entire forest products space this year, it is abundantly clear that demand is weak across all segments. There is no expectation of an improvement in 2025 as consumption remains poor and restocking efforts are expected to be limited. As such, any hopes of better supply/demand dynamics are going to come down to supply discipline (slowbacks/downtime/closures). We have some thoughts about how this might play out in the various sectors: Timber and Timberland—Timber harvest guidance will naturally follow wood products demand. Finding a home for pulpwood has been problematic for several years and will only become more difficult amid ongoing downstream capacity shuts. New demand is possible over time, but nothing is expected in the near-term.

Solid Wood—A raft of capacity closures in both Canada and the US had brought the lumber market into better balance to begin 2025. However, with demand weakening further through the first half of 20025 (and given a bleak medium-term outlook), further capacity rationalization will be required to restore balance and lift prices (Canada will be the focus, but the US could also see shuts). In OSB, prices are already at cash- cost levels, demand could slip further in the coming months, and new greenfield capacity is slated for late ’25 and early ’26. Accordingly, closures/downtime are sorely needed. For both lumber and OSB, producers may be awaiting the outcome of the Section 232 investigation before making major changes to operations.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

June 4, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Kevin Mason

As investors struggle to understand the implications of trade wars and the current tariff regime in the US, we offer our thoughts on the likely impacts (broken down by commodity). We note that trade parameters continue to change dramatically (e.g., tariffs blocked by the courts but then overturned on appeal). To be clear, tariffs are taxes on imports, with the degree of cost-sharing between importer and exporter determined by supply and demand. Some commodities experienced pre-tariff demand pull-forward, but, across the board, tariffs have reduced buyer appetite for any inventory accumulation and have had a generally chilling effect on investment, planning and normal business activity. We note that the ongoing Section 232 investigation into timber and timber products is sure to target lumber, but it may also expand to many others forest products. Uncertainty is now a constant in the sector.

…Tariffs on Canadian lumber imports are on hold pending the outcome of a Section 232 investigation. However, the long-standing softwood lumber dispute rumbles on; with duty rates set to more than double in the second half of 2025, price risk for S-P-F appears to be upside-weighted from current levels. SYP producers—and perhaps to a lesser extent European lumber exporters—should benefit from a drop in the volume of S-P-F going to the US when/if higher duties/tariffs are implemented. OSB and plywood could also be impacted by the Section 232 outcome. In OSB, a tariff on Canadian imports would likely see needed mill downtime north of the border.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

May 5, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

The US administration’s goal is clear: reduce imports and boost domestic manufacturing of wood products. Eliminating lumber imports would require an additional ~14Bbf of US domestic lumber production, representing a 40% increase on current production. …The big challenge in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) is that key infrastructure is missing: logging infrastructure, sawmill infrastructure and human resources. Logging infrastructure would require increasing logging employment, and that has been on a downward slope for decades as young people find other, similarly paid work more attractive. Third-party contractors could provide logging (and permitting) support, but they would face the same problems of scaling up. Harvest restrictions since 1994 have resulted in large-diameter timber now so the logs are no longer an appropriate size for local mills. Also, roads need to be built.

Unlike in the PNW, federal lands in the South have remained active suppliers of timber, along with other willing timber suppliers (including REITs and private landowners). …If the U.S. were to replace all (or the majority) of lumber imports, we would expect to see new supply coming from the South. …Replacing imports would take a decade, at least, and cost more than $10B for sawmills alone (potentially much higher with escalating costs for steel, machinery, etc.). We also highlight challenges, albeit different ones from the PNW. Investment is a big one. In an uncertain global macroeconomic environment, we do not expect to see major capital investment announcements. …Another big challenge is end-market demand from housing activity. If construction materials and labour costs rise meaningfully on tariff and immigration policies, affordability will decline and the near- term rationale for capital investment will be eroded—even if tariffs have forced housing prices higher (i.e., the stagflation scenario).

By Derek Nighbor

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

March 25, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

Derek Nighbor

The current threat of an additional 25% US tariff facing Canada’s forest sector is an urgent wake-up call to improve our nation’s competitiveness and infrastructure, and to diversify export markets. …Our nation’s natural resources are Canada’s global competitive advantage. In recognition, the federal government has created integrated sector strategies for critical minerals, cement, and electricity. …These natural resource sector strategies are critical to a more secure, more sustainable, and more competitive economy. Forestry is an important part of that economy but has not been part of the underlying strategy.

Forestry needs a National Forest Sector Strategy to: build more homes using Canadian wood products; convert “wood waste” into biofuels for power; open new international opportunities for Canada’s wood products; and cut red tape and regulatory barriers. …FPAC advocates for the reinstatement of full funding for market expansion programs such as Canada Wood, which can open new international opportunities for Canadian forest products. …Finally, environmental and land-use policies must remain science-based and not impose unnecessary restrictions that hurt the creation of jobs, investment, and sustainable forestry operations.

The unjust tariffs threatened by the American administration (in addition to the existing duties on softwood lumber) are a real risk to Canada’s forest sector and the broader economic relationship between the two countries. FPAC supports the federal, provincial and territorial governments in their swift tariff response, including firm countermeasures. However, for the forestry sector’s long-term health, the solution lies in domestic policy. With a robust response, Canada can mitigate the impact and emerge stronger. Expanding domestic wood use, advancing biomass and pulp market opportunities, strengthening trade resilience, and cutting regulatory barriers are critical steps in this journey.

Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

March 3, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

It would be impossible to list the 70+ executive orders signed and published so far under the new US administration. Some of these edicts are clear and enforceable, while some have been challenged. We have discussed at length the potential impact of 25% blanket tariffs on imports of Canadian forest products. Collectively, this torrent of change has created uncertainty, slowing business decision-making—and, therefore, investment. We have seen this paralysis in the lumber markets, with buyers and sellers unsure of how to prepare for tariffs, and confusion leading to inaction. The same is true at the individual level, with mass layoffs in the public sector. Workplaces that see mass firings also tend to freeze up, slowing workflow as employees contemplate their future.

Recessions can be caused by shocks to the system on the supply or the demand side. There is no question that the executive orders to date have shocked the systems of both government and international trade; this has apparently been intentional. The question is whether or not supply, demand and labour can respond appropriately with minimal disruption. Over time, clearly, they can in an economy as dynamic and entrepreneurial as that of the US; in the short-term, however, there is a risk that uncertainty holds back both business investment and consumer spending. …High interest rates have held back both housing demand and housing supply. If tariffs are indeed implemented, prices should rise and rates will not fall (unless a recession ensues).

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

February 4, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Kevin Mason

Tariff anxiety continues and is now refocused on the latest “deadline”. Despite all the tumult and spilt ink, markets are generally ascribing a low probability to duties actually being introduced. While tariff speculation is dominating conversations between buyers and sellers… we have heard no reports of meaningful pre-buying or “insurance” purchases. This is unsurprising given various supply-chain constraints, the high cost of working capital, and the difficultly of developing new relationships in short order. Buyers want protection against tariffs, but that isn’t going to happen because the US can’t self-supply most forest products. Buyers will pay up.

For some commodities, imports (and imports from Canada specifically) are a small part of US domestic consumption, so would be easier to replace. For others (including lumber, OSB, newsprint and uncoated mechanicals), replacing imports would be slow and expensive, allowing suppliers to pass on all—or almost all—of the tariff amount to consumers. In some cases, producers straddle the border and may be able to slow/idle Canadian operations while running their US assets at full tilt. …However, if some producers expect the tariff regime to be a mere negotiating ploy, with the possibility they could be reduced/removed over the next year, drastic actions (i.e., outright closures in Canada and/or new mills in the US) would not be taken. Everyone is trying to navigate through these times, with no easy answers other than “be prepared.”

By David Elstone, Managing Director

The Spar Tree Group

October 15, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

A provincial election has been called two years ahead of schedule and just a few days after the Premier met with forest industry groups that were asking for a public Forest Sector Crisis Action Plan to ward off a collapse of the sector. …The following is a report card on the BC NDP’s progress on its 2024 election commitments. At the TLA’s Convention in January 2026, the Minister of Forests was asked to provide a self-assessment of his government’s performance one year into its current mandate. In a moment of candour, the minister offered a grade of “incomplete,” noting that there was more to come. Coincidentally, nine months later, the View From The Stump’s own assessment arrived at the similar grade. …A special mention is warranted. While the Premier and his NDP caucus were largely unsuccessful in delivering on their forest-sector promises, Minister of Forests Ravi Parmar deserves recognition for setting the bar high in using social media to promote and defend the sector.

It is one thing to assign fair, albeit subjective, letter grades. It is another to measure the impact of government decisions through a quantitative lens. …A clinical assessment would conclude that the NDP’s approach to forest policy and industry transformation failed over the last decade because it placed government at the centre of the transformation process. In doing so, it cast industry as an adversary rather than a partner, undermining the very investment and innovation needed to achieve its objectives. External factors, such as markets, can be challenging, but businesses are capable of navigating them. What is more difficult is making investment decisions when there is uncertainty about the long-term reliability of fibre supply. …Rather than viewing industry as a problem to be managed, it should be used as a tool to achieve government’s objectives. When policy changes are necessary, they should be designed to build confidence and enhance certainty.

By Peter Lister, Executive Director

The Truck LoggerBC Magazine

October 9, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Peter Lister

With climate change, wildfires are becoming more common and more severe. …While the number of hectares burned in 2026 is approaching the 10-year average, the fires have had an enormous effect on communities in BC’s Okanagan Valley. Residents in the immediately affected areas have had their lives disrupted through evacuations, lost homes, and lost income from closed businesses. To date, about 150 structures were destroyed in the Bald Range fires, about 40 in Summerland and the rest in outlying areas. Most of us can appreciate that losing your home has a huge emotional and financial impact, and many people will face years of work to negotiate insurance settlements and rebuild their lives. People without adequate insurance will likely never financially recover.

The provincial government has several programs to help mitigate wildfire risk. …While these programs are helpful and a good starting point, the amount of funding available is simply inadequate relative to the scale of the need across the province. …Clearly, a different approach that does not depend on government grants is required to quickly treat a much larger amount of land at a lower cost. Forestry contractors hold the key. Increasingly, mechanized approaches are being used to thin the forests and reduce fuel loads. Mechanized thinning can not only treat much larger areas than manual approaches, but by modifying the approach to include the removal of some larger stems, treatments can be done on a break-even basis by selling the harvested stems as pulp or sawlogs.

Communities will be better protected from wildfires in a timely manner, government does not need to find the funding to pay for the manual treatments, and forestry contractors are kept working, preserving jobs and businesses and maintaining harvesting capacity that will be necessary when the forest product markets finally recover and mills get back to work.

By Bob Brash

Tree Frog News Editorial

October 8, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada West

Bob Brash

Every Day… Yes, Trump’s tariffs are a serious problem for British Columbia’s forest sector. They add cost and uncertainty to an industry already fighting for its survival. However, if you think tariffs are the only issue, you’re delusional. Blaming our neighbors to the south is becoming a convenient excuse for avoiding a much more uncomfortable truth. Many of the biggest problems confronting B.C. forestry were made in British Columbia. For years, successive provincial governments have been told what is required to sustain a prosperous and competitive forest sector. The message has been remarkably consistent: provide greater certainty over the working land base and timber supply; create an efficient and predictable regulatory system; and tackle a cost structure that increasingly makes B.C. uncompetitive. These aren’t new revelations. Government has heard them repeatedly. Yet the fundamentals remain largely unaddressed. Instead, we get announcements, consultations, new initiatives and political messaging. We debate tenure reform, redistribution of tenure, value-added, reconciliation, resilience, and the creation of a working forest. To varying extents, all valid and have merit.

But here is the uncomfortable question: What exactly are we creating if there is no longer an economically viable forest industry left to operate and the capacity to deliver it?

By David Elstone, Managing Director

The Spar Tree Group

September 16, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

What does British Columbia’s Minister of Forests Ravi Parmar mean when he talks about forest industry transformation? …Industry transformation is a core theme of the NDP government’s forest sector agenda—part of what it was elected to address in 2017 and later formalized in the 2021 intentions paper, Modernizing Forest Policy in British Columbia. It is clear that transformation is meant to include more value-added wood products manufacturing, partly to reduce reliance on commodity lumber markets in the U.S. and move away from boom-and-bust cycles. Those are worthy broad objectives but impractical. And there is no concrete plan. Frustratingly, the details of this industry transformation have never been publicly outlined.

By my analysis, approximately 42 per cent of the softwood lumber production capacity operating in this province in 2019 has since been indefinitely curtailed, indefinitely closed, or permanently closed. …What about the 54 per cent, or 3.1 million tonne reduction in pulp and paper mill capacity since 2020? Add two or three closed pellet mills, a few other wood product manufacturers, and the list is a shocking transformation. The corresponding 47% decrease in the provincial Crown harvest is equally telling. …One of the biggest ironies of all this is the desire to increase value-added manufacturing cannot scale without primary manufacturers converting logs into products like lumber or veneer that can be used to then make value-added products. Except those primary manufacturers are the ones closing down.

Industry leaders recently sent a joint letter to the Premier warning that industry is at a breaking point and asking for an emergency meeting to address the crisis. Maybe the discussion should not be industry conveying its concerns and needs, but rather the Premier and Minister cutting to the chase on what they mean by industry transformation. The government keeps invoking transformation, yet the observable result of the last decade have been contraction—and neither communities nor industry know where the government’s goalposts are.

By Christine Gelowitz, CEO and Registrar

Forest Professionals BC

September 11, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada West

This past summer once again saw wildfires rip through the BC Interior resulting in lost homes and uprooted communities. As always, we’re left wondering why did this happen? Could it have been prevented? In the case of the Summerland fire, CBC reported that fuel management and prescribed burning work had been planned in some of the affected areas but had not been carried out. But the situation is more nuance than the reporting suggests. Considerable mitigation work had taken place around the community over the past two decades including fuel management treatments, ecological burns, and targeted grazing. The effectiveness of those efforts, along with other factors across the landscape and efforts of individual local residents, will no doubt be studied in detail in the months ahead. The impact of this wildfire does not mean mitigation failed. Quite the opposite; it suggests that preventative work matters, that FireSmart initiatives by homeowners are imperative, and that communities are safer because of it.

Forest Professionals BC partnered with BC Wildfire Service to work on building the professional capacity needed for modern wildfire management. We have established three wildfire-related areas of professional practice, developed competency standards, created targeted professional development, and introduced new licensing pathways to ensure that critical wildfire planning is carried out by regulated professionals who are knowledgeable, skilled, and accountable to the public.

By Stuart Muir, CEO

Resource Works

July 15, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Stuart Muir

Six weeks before Northwood, on June 3, the Canadian Forest Sector Transformation Task Force—a panel appointed by the Government of Canada, not an industry lobby—released its final report. Its verdict was not the one the political class in Victoria has spent a decade rehearsing. The crisis, the task force concluded, is not primarily the product of tariffs, markets or natural disaster. In its own words, “the most fundamental challenges facing the forest sector are homegrown: lack of access to cost-competitive fibre, underinvestment, inadequate domestic construction … a crisis of confidence by our workforce and the communities in which we operate.”

…Here is where I land, and where the task force lands with me: this is a policy-made crisis, which means it has a policy solution. Three conditions, and none of them require a single British Columbian to choose between a healthy forest and a working one. First, stabilize fibre with long-term commitments tied to specific mills—the task force recommends a shift toward area-based tenure on leases of twenty-five years or longer. …Second, work with Ottawa on single-window approvals that recognize provincial equivalency: one application, one decision, one set of conditions. …Third, increase active management—more harvesting, more thinning, more silviculture—not as a favour to industry but as the most effective wildfire policy available to us, and the only way to rebuild the fibre base. The province controls the land, the tenure, the rules and the permits. It also means the province owns the results—the $17.4 billion, the hundred thousand jobs, the eight million hectares, and now the shuttered gates at Northwood. Ottawa has finally said the word out loud. Homegrown. The only question left is whether Victoria will admit it grew this, too, and start growing something better.

By David Elstone, Managing Director

Spar Tree Group

July 9, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Five years after the Modernizing Forest Policy in BC paper signalled the province’s intention to address the “disparity” in stumpage rates among Community Forest Agreements (CFAs), Woodlot Licences (WLs), and First Nations Woodland Licences (FNWLs), the issue remains unresolved. The question should not simply be whether all these tenure types should use tabular rates; but rather how BC should fund transformational change in forest management. …In 2025, CFAs and WLs paid substantially lower stumpage on harvested timber than FNWLs, whose rates were more comparable to major tenures such as Tree Farm Licences and Forest Licences. …While CFAs and WLs use tabular rates, stumpage for FNWLs is determined using the appraisal approach and revenue sharing. All three tenure types are area-based and, at least in principle, are meant to support a more locally intense form of forest stewardship than typical industrial forestry.

That distinction matters. If lower stumpage is simply treated as a revenue loss to government, the debate will remain stuck. If it is treated as a policy tool to secure measurable stewardship, wildfire resilience, and community stability, the discussion becomes far more productive. …The better approach is to stop treating equity reform in rates as a narrow revenue problem and start treating it as a performance bargain. If tenure holders want access to tabular rates instead of higher appraisal-based rates, they should be prepared to commit to measurable stewardship outcomes. …That is the trade-off those at the policy table should be debating. Tabular rates should not be viewed as a giveaway, nor should they be dismissed as a loss of revenue. They should be designed as a trade-off: more flexible administration of pricing and potentially lower rates in exchange for measurable stewardship gains, wildfire resilience, and community benefits.

By Peter Lister, Executive Director

The Truck LoggerBC Magazine

July 8, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Peter Lister

On May 19, six First Nations and the federal and provincial governments signed a historic agreement to protect a large portion of BC’s Central Coast. …Meanwhile, the Ministry of Forests is moving forward with its Forest Land Planning (FLP) process with seemingly little to no coordination with the [conservation] work being done by the ministry of Water, Land and Natural Resource Stewardship (WLRS). …BC is currently harvesting less than half of its 60 million cubic metre allowable annual cut. The reasons are many and complex but essentially come down to poor prices and tariffs in the key US market, high industry operational costs resulting from a large web of new regulations, and a critical shortage of economically accessible fibre. These factors have resulted in mill closures, job losses, and dramatically reduced government tax revenue, all at a time when the province is facing large budget deficits and record debt.

We need government to take the forest sector crises seriously, and take urgent and decisive action to streamline regulation, reduce crippling industry costs, and provide the fibre supply certainty required to reattract investment in our province. Instead, we have a situation where the forests minister is mandated to increase harvest levels to 45 million cubic meters (with little progress), while our WRLS minister has a mandate to protect an additional 10% of our public land base, even though we already exceed 30×30 targets. This makes no sense and shows a lack of leadership from the premier, who is prioritizing the interests of environmental activists and urban voters over the real economic needs of working British Columbians. Our government’s lack of focus on the economy is driving away business investment, hurting British Columbian’s pocketbooks, and creating a welfare state saddled with debt. This is not a legacy our premier should be proud of.

By Mackenzie Leine, Deputy Minister

Truck LoggerBC Magazine

April 13, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Mackenzie Leine

The forestry sector is currently navigating significant change. …These pressures underscore the need for greater stability and predictability in managing the land base to support the sector. Recognizing these challenges, the Minister of Forests has given our ministry direction to explore a working forest model designed to bring greater clarity and stability to the land base. This means more predictability in access to fibre supply, clearer definitions of what areas are harvestable, and clarity on how we steward the areas of the provincial land base intended to support sustainable forest management. For many years, a growing number of pressures have been placed on BC’s forests. Conservation priorities, habitat protections, land-use decisions, climate impacts, and other policy changes all influence how the land base is managed. Each of these priorities is important; yet when considered individually, they can create uncertainty about the future of the forests.

In this process, we’re continuing our commitment to advancing reconciliation by working with First Nations communities for a more sustainable future. And we’re working collaboratively with industry, local governments, and other interested parties as we collectively explore a clearer approach to the working forest land base. This work is closely connected to the challenge of fibre supply. A functioning forestry sector depends both on what fibre exists on the land base and in how we sustainably access it. Strengthening fibre supply planning and improving alignment across government are important steps in creating that predictability. Looking ahead, the objective is to ensure that BC’s working forests continue to provide environmental, social, and economic benefits for the next century. By exploring a clearer model for how the working forest land base is managed, we can help create the predictability needed to support a resilient, competitive, and sustainable forest sector.

By Peter Lister, Executive Director

Truck LoggerBC Magazine

April 13, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Peter Lister

We need a new approach to forestry in BC. Our current legislation was developed for a different time, dominated by BC Interior mills that produced large volumes of dimension lumber for US markets. Today, under the perfect storm of low US lumber prices, punishing duties/tariffs, and high delivered wood costs, our traditional US dimension lumber market has been eroded and is unlikely to fully return. Efforts to use more with wood domestically and to diversify into international markets are important but will take time to develop and are unlikely to replace US volumes. Our forests have changed. …Our society has changed, too. …Reconciliation with First Nations peoples has also become an important social priority. …With all this change, BC’s forestry sector has struggled. Uncertainty around fibre supply and tough markets have eroded confidence and stalled capital investment. Lack of economic fibre has led to mill closures.

Change was needed, and, in May 2025, the Provincial Forestry Advisory Council (PFAC) was created and asked to “establish the foundation for generational change, recommend and implement key goals and outcomes for BC forests, and define how these will be advanced…in a new, more transparent and inclusive way.” …Implementing a new system will require government and First Nations to work in partnership with industry, communities, and environmental groups. Government will need to provide strong leadership and firm guidelines to ensure processes don’t become stalled and reasonable timber harvest levels are maintained to support industry and jobs. Compromises will be required, and no single group will get everything they want. But if we work together, we can create a new forest management approach that better matches our times and ultimately benefits everyone.

Forestry is a Solution

April 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada West

In the face of significant challenges—from mill closures to tariffs and shifting global markets—one question we hear more than any other from people: “What can I actually do to help?” When the headlines are dominated by uncertainty, it can feel like the hurdles facing the forest industry are too large for any one person to influence. But there is a powerful way to make your voice heard and tell the provincial government it isn’t just an industry priority but a priority for every British Columbian that wants a resilient future.

That way is Forestry is a Solution. Forestry is a Solution is a province-wide initiative led by a broad coalition of workers, community leaders, and industry advocates. Every name added to the list strengthens our collective message of support for communities, workers and families who depend on BC forestry. It has never been easier:

Visit forestryisasolution.com
Sign the petition to show our collective strength.
Send a letter using the simple, automated tool to tell your MLA why this sector matters to you.

By David Eby, Premier

Truck LoggerBC Magazine

January 12, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

David Eby

Our forest sector has long been a cornerstone of BC’s economy. Now it is under direct attack by Donald Trump. …For us, this is an existential threat. These tariffs are a direct threat to mills in every corner of the province and to the livelihoods of so many. The forest sector has already faced major changes in response to climate challenges, biodiversity loss, wildfire risks, and economic shifts. Forestry built this province and forestry built this country. We have schools and hospitals thanks to hardworking forestry workers, whose labours support entire communities. This is a crisis. And it is an emergency. That is why we are working with Ottawa to deploy, with urgency, the more than $1 billion committed to the forestry sector. Here in BC, we are becoming the economic engine to drive the Canadian economy forward-with multibillion-dollar public investments encouraging massive private investments in energy, minerals, and forestry.

Our strategic plan, ForestryBC: Our Path Forward, aims to sustainably support an annual harvest of 45 million cubic metres. A key goal is to ensure a predictable supply of fibre. …To ensure Canada stands on its own two feet, we are finding new global markets for our bounty of natural resources. It is time for us to find reliable trading partners, and we are doing so. By diversifying, we will ensure our forestry sector remains strong for years and generations to come. A sustainable forest economy is an achievable goal. It will drive prosperity in every corner of our province and our country. And the only way this will be a success is if we continue to support our most important resource of all-the skilled and hard-working people of British Columbia. I want to assure everyone whose family and whose community depend on these forest jobs. We will stand with you. Here at home. In Ottawa. And around the world.

By David Elstone and Jim Girvan

The Spar Tree Group and Industrial Forest Service

December 2, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Jim Girvan

A recent article in the Business In Vancouver (BIV) makes serious allegations into the process used by the province’s Provincial Chief Forester to determine the allowable annual cut (AAC), claiming the “BC timber harvest is vastly overestimated.” The BIV article is based on a “leaked” consultants’ report prepared for a group of First Nations whose traditional territory overlaps with the Mackenzie Timber Supply Area (TSA). …It challenges the Chief Forester’s role in protecting the public interest with respect to sustainable forest management, reading more as an “I gotcha moment” which questions the Timber Supply Review (TSR) process that underpins the setting of AACs across the province.

…The workings of the TSR and AAC determination are not a “dirty secret” or a “black box” process, but rather, one that is routinely replicated by knowledgeable and qualified professionals. Using the inputs that are largely cited and noted, the modelled timber supply projections can be easily reproduced. …Looking at the Mackenzie TSR process in all three of its public reports, it would appear to be a well-documented, lengthy process that took into consideration input from many stakeholders including the collaborative technical working group formed between local First Nations and the BC government. The resultant AAC determination appears to be an informed judgment made by the Chief Forester that draws a balance between the social, environmental and economic objectives of the Crown.

…The consultants believe the full adoption of their assumptions, having a more conservative approach to manage for uncertainties should have been used. …We would suggest BIV’s editor look to produce more balanced editorial because it is difficult to take the BIV seriously considering the one-sided language used to make the case that there is something not right in BC forestry. …Aside from the sensationalism of the BIV article, whichever side you believe, there is a need to investigate these claims given the risk to erosion of the public’s confidence in the province’s sustainable management of its forests.

By Kim Haakstad, President & CEO

BC Council of Forest Industries

December 2, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Kim Haakstad

VANCOUVER, BC — For too many people across this province, the consequences of inaction for the struggling forestry sector are no longer theoretical — they are happening in real time. We have been sounding the alarm that the situation in BC is dire and today is further evidence that the sector needs an urgent response from our government. While softwood lumber duties and trade uncertainty add significant pressure, not everything can be blamed on the dispute. It is important to focus on the areas within our control, and those remain the core issues facing BC forestry: access to predictable, economic wood supply and the ability to operate in a competitive and efficient regulatory environment.

The solutions are well known and long overdue. The provincial government must urgently:

Remove barriers to getting wood moving — by improving the efficiency and timeliness of cutting permits and road-building approvals, and fast-tracking improvements to BC Timber Sales
Address operating costs — both at the harvest level and in manufacturing facilities
Support First Nations with the capacity and tools to expedite referrals, co-develop land use plans, and increase revenue sharing—so that partnerships can move at the speed of opportunity

“We acknowledge the recent steps taken by the federal government. …But the most effective way to protect workers is to keep their workplaces open. Now the Province must act with urgency to stabilize wood supply, restore competitiveness, and reverse the steady loss of jobs and investment. Without swift, decisive action, BC will continue to see more closures. …COFI and our members are at the table, ready to work with government, First Nations, labour, and communities to find solutions that can stabilize the sector and rebuild confidence. But we need the province to step up now — not months from now, not after further losses. The time for urgent action was yesterday.”

By Bob Brash, Serving BC’s forest sector for over 50 years

Tree Frog Submitted Editorial

November 10, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada West

Bob Brash

Between the long-simmering softwood lumber dispute and Donald Trump’s renewed tariffs, the hardships facing BC’s forest sector have rarely been greater. Keeping people working and facilities operating challenges even the best of us in this industry. After the recent federal-provincial Forest Summit, some credit is due to both levels of government for at least attempting to provide relief—along with what we hope is a genuine effort to diversify our markets and products. However, much more collaboration and concrete commitment are needed before we can judge these efforts effective. Many suspect the current plans may offer only limited short-term benefit. …Our financial resilience—and therefore our ability to even more assertively innovate, attract investment, and modernize our facilities—has been severely weakened. The result: we are less able to meet society’s changing expectations while sustaining a viable industry.

How has government responded? By blaming Trump for our woes—criticism he may deserve—but largely ignoring its own role in undermining the prosperity of BC’s forest sector. A familiar analogy comes to mind: a strong structure requires a solid foundation. For our industry, that foundation is the regulatory environment we operate within—and it’s failing. …In short, government is expecting different results while changing nothing—and we all know what that defines. …Real leadership begins with accepting the situation as it is and moving decisively toward practical, shared solutions. Unfortunately, there’s little sign of that happening. Over my career, I’ve seen this sector innovate repeatedly to sustain BC’s prosperity. We’ve done it before—and we can do it again. But not with both hands tied behind our back while standing on a grumbling foundation.

By Kim Haakstad (COFI) and Peter Lister (TLA)

The Times Colonist

September 22, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

As leaders gather this week at the 2025 Union of BC Municipalities’ convention to chart the future of British Columbia, forestry must be central to those discussions. Forestry touches communities of every size in every part of BC It is not just an industry — it is part of BC’s fabric. And at a time of pressing challenges, forestry offers solutions: for rural, urban and Indigenous communities, it can and should be a unifying force. …Yet the sector faces headwinds. US softwood lumber duties exceed 35%, global markets remain volatile and further tariff increases loom. These forces are beyond our control, but they make action at home urgent. In challenging times, we need to focus on solutions that make us stronger together — solutions that are about “and”, not “or.”

Recent polling shows 87% of British Columbians agree that effectively developing natural resources is key to future growth. That means economy and environment. Reconciliation and jobs. …Premier David Eby has recognized this by naming forestry as a major project known as the “path to 45 million cubic metres.” BC’s allowable annual cut is around 60 million cubic metres. We’re harvesting barely half of that, and many mills are down to one shift. That means lost jobs, lost opportunities and declining community stability. The good news is: forestry doesn’t need years of permitting. We already have the people, the infrastructure and the supply chain in place. We can unleash forestry now, while new mines, LNG facilities and clean energy projects work their way through the approval process. Closing that gap matters — not just for companies, but for communities across BC. If we can reach the 45 million target harvest, government tax revenues would increase over $500 million per year from stumpage and non-stumpage revenues.

By Jason Krips, CEO, Alberta Forest Products Association

The Calgary Herald

July 31, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Jason Krips

The wildfires that swept through Jasper National Park in 2024 were devastating — but they weren’t unpredictable. They were the foreseeable result of years of policy choices: the decision to leave forests untouched, to restrict active management, and to allow risk to build in the name of preservation. Alberta’s forests are disturbance-driven — they rely on natural events like wildfire to renew, diversify, and maintain ecological balance. But over the past century, we’ve suppressed these disturbances to protect communities, infrastructure and wildlife. Without fire, forests don’t regenerate naturally. And without policy tools that allow for active interventions like harvesting, we’re left with dense, aging stands vulnerable to fire and pests. Now, in 2025, we face an urgent question: will we continue down the same path, or will we modernize our approach to forest management — even in places long considered off-limits, like national parks?

…Our members don’t operate inside the park, but they do operate next to it, and what happens within the park’s boundaries doesn’t stay there. …In 2017, we warned that aging forests, pine beetles, and hot, dry summers were creating a perfect storm. In 2024, that danger became reality. …We need a national parks policy to reflect this reality. It should encourage science-based, ecologically sensitive management tools like thinning, selective harvesting, and prescribed fire across the entire park — tools that reduce fuel loads and restore healthier forest structures. Beyond parks, we also need to revisit legislation like the Species at Risk Act. In Alberta, this law currently prevents management in large areas of older forest, ironically putting caribou and other species at greater risk when those forests inevitably burn. …Canada’s forests, inside and outside of parks, are among our greatest national assets. But if we want to protect them, we need to manage them.

Additional coverage in the Rocky Mountain Outlook, by Glen Grossmith: LETTER: In support of rethinking forest management “It’s encouraging to see attention drawn to the real, actionable strategies that can make a difference in the face of escalating wildfires.”

By David Elstone, Managing Director

The Spar Tree Group

June 17, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Forestry in BC is more than harvesting trees, it is also becoming about wildfire resiliency. …As a broad generalization, the future of wildfire management is more than putting fires out but increasingly it is learning how to live with fire. …That happens with active forest management work such as stand thinning and fuel reduction treatments. Specifics of such depend on the ecological characteristics of the areas to receive treatments. Another reality is that forestry is no longer practiced without First Nations consultation and input. In fact, due to growing forest tenure ownership and now with leadership in forest landscape planning, forestry in BC forestry… is clearly evolving from an industry centric sector to one that looks like a triangulation of Wildfire Resiliency: Indigenous Forestry: Forest Industry….To effectively and urgently treat millions of hectares of forests for resiliency to wildfire, the amount of required funding is magnitudes greater than what is being applied today.

…So here is an idea that does not need government funds, just motivation that brings together the three sides of the triangle as described above: Create large scale temporary stewardship areas, in the thousands of hectares where there are homogenous forests of an age range – say between 20 years to 40 years old – where qualified operators could thin stands from below, following a broad stand management prescription for the area. Planning work with First Nations should be done in advance for the entire area. …No tenure, no conventional cutting permit, just an application/timber mark. No appraisal – just say $1/m3 stumpage. Make it so there are no negative repercussions to AAC cut control so existing forest tenure licensees should have no concern. …Doing this work at scale will drive investment in more efficient equipment. Mills receive steady and reliable fibre to keep operating and maintain jobs. Government and First Nations get more wildfire resilient forested landscapes, raising the quality of forests increases other values like moose, and carbon management etc.

David Elstone, Managing Director

The Spar Tree Group

June 17, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

David Elstone

Forestry in BC is more than harvesting trees, it is also becoming about wildfire resiliency. …As a broad generalization, the future of wildfire management is more than putting fires out but increasingly it is learning how to live with fire. …That happens with active forest management work such as stand thinning and fuel reduction treatments. Specifics of such depend on the ecological characteristics of the areas to receive treatments. Another reality is that forestry is no longer practiced without First Nations consultation and input. In fact, due to growing forest tenure ownership and now with leadership in forest landscape planning, forestry in BC is fast becoming synonymous with Indigenous forestry. …To effectively and urgently treat millions of hectares of forests for resiliency to wildfire, the amount of required funding is magnitudes greater than what is being applied today. …So here is an idea that does not need government funds, just motivation that brings together the three sides of the triangle as described above:

Create large scale temporary stewardship areas, in the thousands of hectares where there are homogenous forests of an age range – say between 20 years to 40 years old – where qualified operators could thin stands from below, following a broad stand management prescription for the area. Planning work with First Nations should be done in advance for the entire area. …No tenure, no conventional cutting permit, just an application/timber mark. No appraisal – just say $1/m3 stumpage. Make it so there are no negative repercussions to AAC cut control so existing forest tenure licensees should have no concern. …Doing this work at scale will drive investment in more efficient equipment. Mills receive steady and reliable fibre to keep operating and maintain jobs. Government and First Nations get more wildfire resilient forested landscapes, raising the quality of forests increases other values like moose, and carbon management etc.

By David Elstone

Right from the Stump – Spar Tree Group

April 17, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

The BCTS Review that was launched in January 2025, and co-chaired by Brian Frenkel, Lenny Joe and George Abbott, is nearing an end for public input intake. The BC government describes this initiative as a periodic review to ensure BCTS is evolving in an ever-changing marketplace while meeting its mandate commitments. The reality is that BCTS performance has been seriously impacted over the last few years. This review comes as the Premier seeks to meet his mandated target for a timber harvest of 45 million m³. Raising the BCTS harvest off its historic lows will help the Premier in his drive to 45!

BCTS harvest data speaks for itself. Although BCTS is supposed to represent 20% of the harvest on average, it has rarely met that 20% level over the past decade. The BCTS harvest fell to a low of just 10% of the overall provincial harvest in 2023. Given that the overall provincial harvest was also severely depressed, a BCTS harvest at 10% of total was a pretty dismal achievement. However, in 2024 and based on a running 12-month moving total, BCTS has increased it’s proportion of the provincial harvest to approximately 12%. BCTS harvest performance actually outperformed non-BCTS harvesting in 2024 and so far, is continuing to do so in the first quarter of 2025. Despite the recent improvement, the overall issue for the forest sector is that an average BCTS harvest of 10 million m³ has shrunk to 4 million m³.

According to the BC government’s recently announced BC Budget 2025, the outlook for BCTS harvest is positive. Elstone continues in his piece by pointing out the challenges ahead, and proposing his own suggested solutions.

By Bob Brash, TLA Executive Director

Truck LoggerBC Magazine

April 1, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Well, 2025 will prove to be an interesting year ahead. …Provincially there are some glimmers of hope for some directional changes to the current trajectory of BC’s forest sector through the appointment of an energized and determined Minister of Forests. At the recent TLA convention, there also seemed to be acknowledgment that the need for change was recognized with the Premier and Minister. …The government’s forestry mandate appears to be granted for firm actions, even more so with our obvious need for more self-reliance as a country. But muddying the background is the reality that anything that needs to be accomplished must be done within the spectre of massive provincial deficits and a hiring freeze. Where to start?

There needs to be a review of all the current policies, legislation, and regulations to ensure they mesh with the overall vision and contribute towards its successful implementation. It is fair to say the cumulative array of constraints over the last decades encircling the forest sector have been decidedly negative. …Albeit a complex and onerous task, the hope is the creation of renewed investment certainty for all those making their decisions towards the future of the sector. …There must be a meaningful transition plan and set of actions in place to ensure the components of the sector survive while these changes are being contemplated and implemented. …An effective transition plan requires government to work hand-in-hand with the industry towards ensuring a level of harvest is agreed upon and delivered to at least minimally sustain all concerned over these next few years. And it means giving decision-makers of permitting and delivery programs the authority and support to make those tough interim decisions. It also means that the short-term harvest level to sustain our sector is not the plus or minus 32 million m3 currently happening.

By David Elstone and Denise Mullen

Business in Vancouver

February 5, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, Canada West

Denise Mullen

David Elstone

The longstanding softwood lumber dispute, wherein the US persistently alleges BC subsidizes its lumber industry already has the Americans imposing a 14.4% duty on BC lumber, so an additional 25 per cent tariff could prove catastrophic, triggering layoffs, mill closures and economic turmoil in forestry-dependent communities. … Given the escalating risk of a full-scale trade war, BC must adopt innovative and assertive countermeasures to safeguard its forest sector. These measures are emergency response actions to address the regulatory and tax regime in BC and, while temporary, some could have long-term benefits after the tariffs are gone. …Given the potential for widespread sawmill closures, BC must actively seek alternative markets, particularly in Asia. Furthermore, in such extreme times as the province faces, consideration of less politically popular exporting opportunities may need to be explored.

These include temporarily eliminating fee-in-lieu charges on unmanufactured log exports… Eliminating the provincial sales tax where applicable on forestry-related transportation. …Repeal of the carbon tax and other fuel consumption-related taxes. …BC could look to pause, for now, the introduction and implementation of new environmental and forestry policies. …It is imperative to emphasize that… none of these proposals require direct financial handouts from the provincial government. Instead, the focus should be on targeted regulatory relief and cost reductions, ensuring business continuity and workforce stability. BC now faces a critical juncture — either accept mass unemployment and economic stagnation, or implement bold, temporary measures to keep the proverbial lights on for its forest sector. A decisive and calculated response is not just desirable, it is essential for the long-term sustainability of BC’s economy and the forest sector, in particular.

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

July 3, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: United States

Kevin Mason

The headline numbers coming out of the US continue to point to a robust economy, but the K-shaped bifurcation between income brackets is undeniable. The steady decline (and recent collapse) in real disposable income is concerning. There are many factors that contribute to an individual’s disposable income. Rising energy costs have been a big factor of late (gas prices predominantly), but disposable income was in decline far before its recent dip into negative territory. Inflation has outstripped wage growth in many parts of the private sector, with households often having to tap into savings and/or take on debt to support spending. Another challenge has been high interest rates, and that shows up in the housing market (as well as autos).

…After showing impressive resilience through the first four months of the year, US housing starts capitulated in May, slumping to a seasonally adjusted 1.18MM units (their lowest level since May 2020 at the onset of the pandemic). Single-family starts came in at 882,000, off by 2% m/m and 7% y/y, while multifamily activity was off by a whopping 40% m/m and 14% y/y at just 295,000. That adjusted multifamily number was the lowest reading since November 2024 and came as a shock after multis had decisively outperformed singles through the first four months of the year (averaging an adjusted 478,000 over that period). …To round off a dismal month, home sales data for May gave little reason for optimism. Looking first at new home sales, May’s total of 580,000 (adjusted) was off 7% both m/m and y/y.

By Alicia Cramer, Chief Operating Officer – US Endowment for Forestry and Communities

US Endowment for Forestry and Communities

March 20, 2025

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: United States

Planting a tree can seem like an easy win for the planet. It’s a popular pledge for corporations and organizations eager to participate in sustainability programs and promote environmental responsibility. But here’s the catch: not all trees have the same impact, and not all tree-planting efforts contribute to forest sustainability. As we approach International Day of Forests, it’s worth asking: Are we missing the forests for the trees? Many sustainability programs focus on planting but often overlook the critical role of future forest management — particularly the need for processes like forest thinning. Thinning removes competitive trees which allows the healthiest trees to grow larger and more valuable, and be better equipped to withstand droughts, wildfires, diseases and insect infestations.

…By 2030, the World Economic Forum has made a goal to conserve, restore and grow one trillion trees around the world. This is a noble cause, but we must ask ourselves how many of these trees will provide the desired effects of carbon sequestration, water management, soil erosion prevention, biodiversity and possible forest products? …We must continue to grow the understanding that harvesting trees is not inherently harmful; it is responsible harvesting that ensures forest health. Less than 2% of working forest land is harvested each year, which provides a steady supply of timber – used in building houses and furniture – while maintaining an ecological balance for the future.

New building-component plants advance off-site construction in Canada and US
Thursday, October 22, 2026

Canada’s first robotic roof-truss line has opened in Ontario, while JD Irving opened its prefabricated building-components facility in Maine. In related news: US off-site built housing opportunity is small but … → Read More
North American housing markets slump amid rising interest rate concerns
Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Canada’s housing market is struggling, while US single-family housing starts fell to a one-year low. In related news: US building permits hit a 3½-year low; rising borrowing costs threaten further … → Read More
US housing slump deepens as construction slows and builder confidence falls
Tuesday, October 20, 2026

The US housing slump deepened as single-family construction and building permits fell sharply, builder confidence hit a 14-year low, and lumber futures approached a two-year low. In BC Election news: … → Read More
BC forest industry challenges NDP plan to limit tenure compensation
Monday, October 19, 2026

BC’s forest industry pushes back on proposal to limit compensation for tenure transfers to First Nations. In related news: Vaughn Palmer questions the secrecy of BC’s land transfers; Kim Haagstad says … → Read More
BC forestry in election spotlight as NDP faces scrutiny over promises and land transfers
Friday, October 16, 2026

The BC NDP is defending proposed changes to forest tenure compensation amid revelations of its plan to transfer Crown lands to First Nations. In related news: David Elstone gives the … → Read More

View From the Stump gives BC NDP a D on its 2024 forestry promises, by David Elstone, Managing Director, The Spar Tree Group

Every Day of Inaction Costs B.C. Forestry More, by Bob Brash, Tree Frog News Editorial

Swift response needed as skyrocketing diesel prices hit forestry supply chain, by Kevin Mason, Managing Director, ERA Forest Products Research

BC Forest Industry Transformation Without A Plan Is Just Contraction, by David Elstone, Managing Director, The Spar Tree Group

Let’s Put Into Practice All We Know About Wildfire, by Christine Gelowitz, CEO and Registrar, Forest Professionals BC

Category Archives: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Opinion / EdiTOADial

Swift response needed as skyrocketing diesel prices hit forestry supply chain

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

October 5, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Trade War Hits the Woods: Canada Fires Back on US Forest Products

By David Elstone, Managing Director

The Spar Tree Group Inc.

August 27, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Moving Forward with Urgency to Sustain and Grow Canada’s Forest Sector

By Derek Nighbor, CEO, Forest Products Association of Canada

The Hill Times

August 24, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

Elevated mortgage rates will continue to drag on US new home construction

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

August 17, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

More Than Hockey Sticks – Section 338 50% Tariffs

By David Elstone, Managing Directorid

The Spar Tree Group Inc.

August 11, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Recognizing Transformational Change Before it Before it Reshapes the Forest Sector

By Robert McKellar, Principal, Harmattan Risk

Tree Frog Forestry News

August 10, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

This is the moment for forestry to step up as Canada’s leading environmental voice

By Tony Kryzanowski

Forestnet Magazine

June 30, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada

Supply chain pressures surge to four-year high — weak demand continues to test forest product markets

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

June 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

It’s only a matter of time before forest product companies suffer the consequences of the war

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

April 6, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

Setting the Record Straight – ONCE AGAIN – On The Softwood Lumber Trade between Canada and the United States

By David Elstone and Russ Taylor

Spar Tree Group and Russ Taylor Global

April 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

The U.S. tariff regime is far from over despite a U.S. Supreme Court ruling

By Kevin Mason, Managing Director

ERA Forest Products Research

March 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States

The World’s Wildcard Lynchpin – Trying to make sense of a Trump-led US as a global actor

By Robert Mckellar, Principal

Harmattan Risk

February 2, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada, United States, International

Balancing reconciliation with public inclusion is BC’s next challenge

By Peter Lister, TLA Executive Director

Truck LoggerBC Magazine

January 13, 2026

Category: Opinion / EdiTOADial

Region: Canada