Decades of trade disputes reshape Canada’s softwood lumber sector

By Salim Zanzana
RBC Economics
February 25, 2026
Category: Business & Politics
Region: Canada, United States

Anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and now additional tariffs on softwood lumber and derivative wood products add to a long history of trade measures applied to Canadian exports. …Recent trade data shows exports of targeted wood products to the US have declined by roughly 11% in 2025 from a year earlier with losses concentrated in Quebec and BC. Export gains elsewhere have only partially compensated for reduced US market access—in part reflecting the geographical constraints in shipping lumber and wood products. …Average industrial capacity utilization rate for wood product manufacturing has declined roughly 10 percentage points to 75% in 2025 Q3 from a decade earlier, while employment in sawmills and wood preservation fell roughly 20% between May 2017 and November 2025 with more pronounced declines in BC (-32%) and Quebec (-13%). …Reduced domestic supply could also put pressure on downstream industries such as pulp and paper mills and construction. The combination of weak demand and constrained supply raises the risk of further production curtailments and mill closures.

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