Economy Still Expected to Slow, but Housing Construction Looking More Upbeat

Fannie Mae
May 19, 2023
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: United States

Our economic forecast is little changed from last month. …Both the April employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports came in close to our expectations, and the Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated 25 basis point rate hike at its last meeting. Therefore, our outlook remains largely unchanged, including our expectation of a modest recession beginning in the second half of this year. …We now project real GDP growth on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2023 to be negative 0.3 percent, up one-tenth from our prior outlook. For 2024, we have downgraded growth by two-tenths to 1.2 percent. We forecast the unemployment rate to move upward to 4.2 percent by year-end and to rise to 5.3 percent by the end of 2024. Along with a slowing economy, we also forecast inflation to continue to decelerate, with headline and core CPI ending 2023 around 3.0 and 4.0 percent on a Q4/Q4 basis, respectively.

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