This free report covers the following regions – full details can be downloaded at the RUSS TAYLOR GLOBAL web site. 

Condensed Report Highlights:

GLOBAL TRENDS

• The IMF noted in April 2024 that the global economy continues to display remarkable resilience with growth holding steady and inflation declining but with many challenges still ahead.
• Global growth was 3.2% in CY2023 and is expected to remain at this level in CY2024 and CY2025.
• The IMF sees stronger economic activity than expected in China, the USA and other large emerging markets but weaker activity in the Euro area.
• The IMF also sees the fading of energy price shocks, and a strong rebound in labor supply supported by strong immigration in many advanced economies. The IMF expects less economic scarring from the past 4 years (pandemic, inflation) compared to earlier expectations for advanced economies but more economic scarring for lower income countries.

REGIONAL MARKET UPDATES

Asia Pacific Australia

• Consensus Economics’ April 2024 edition estimates growth expectations for the Australian economy to slow from…
• Australia’s inflation rate is forecasted to decline from a high of 7.8% in December 2022, to ~3.0%/a in late 2024, still above the RBA average target rate band of 2-3%/a.
• Consensus Economics expects housing approvals to be ~169 000 units, down from 229 000 in 2021, i.e. a 26% drop. Some indicate that the decline could be even worse to …
• Australia’s sawlog prices on a nominal basis are expected to remain almost flat for the remainder of CY2024, while the current real prices decline is …
• Hardwood woodchip trade volumes are expected to reach a new record high of ~29.5 million BDMt in CY2024. Demand is driven by increases from China and, to a lesser extent…
• Developments in the Chinese pulp sector, China’s domestic hardwood demand/supply and softwood logs, lumber and price outlook are examined as part of a special multiclient research report authored by Margules Groome and Russ Taylor Global. 

New Zealand

• Consensus Economics’ April forecast reduced its estimate of New Zealand’s 2024 GDP growth from 1.2% to 1.0% with a similar reduction in estimated 2025 growth to 2.3%.
• For the sixth time since 24 May 2023, the RBNZ has held the official cash rate (OCR) constant at 5.5% with the latest announcement on 10 April 2024. Due to imported inflationary pressures, guidance remains that …
• The new coalition government ignored the recommendations of the Climate Change Commission to drastically cut the number of NZUs (carbon units) being sold to force up the carbon price and instead put up 3.525 million NZUs for auction on 20 March 2024. Some 2.97 million NZUs were sold at NZD …
• The China softwood log market showed some price improvement up until March before a sharp correction occurred as log stocks increased. Although China’s log stocks at around 4 million m3 are not historically high, the low port offtake of only…
• Although the drop in CFR prices in China initially appeared modest, achieving actual confirmed sales became difficult causing chaos at some New Zealand ports with inventory but no confirmed customers. Although CFR prices were still theoretically around USD …
• The New Zealand domestic market has remained stable over the last quarter with S30 logs selling in the NZD…
• The national harvest for CY2023 was 32.513 million m3 representing a 5% reduction from CY2022. Domestic use declined more than 19% with exports increasing to …

China/Asia

• China’s ongoing housing slump continues to keep buyers away as large property developers have huge financial problems. China’s floor space of real estate started has dropped from 2.24 billion m2 in 2020 to ….
• In the first two months of 2024, China housing starts are 30% lower than during the same period in 2023. It is expected that the housing starts could bottom out as early as …
• Brazil remains the largest supplier of market BHK pulp to China (54% market share) followed by …
• Japan’s softwood lumber imports decreased dramatically in 2023 to 3.19 million m3, a decrease of …

Europe

• December 2023 turned out to be a low point for Finnish timber prices – albeit they were still at high levels. Coniferous logs and pulpwood have appreciated steadily in Q1 2024, while there never really was a downturn in birch prices.
• Despite very high wood price levels in Sweden in late 2023, prices have continued to increase during the first quarter of this year. The wood price increases are driven by …
• It has mainly been the lack of sawmill timber that has driven up prices recently. The sawmills’ timber cost in relation to the timber product price is now the highest in at least…
• The pulpwood market has been somewhat more stable, although hard pressed by higher energy wood demand, regionally. Over the past three years, average pulpwood prices in Sweden have increased by … • The wood market conditions may soon change in Northern Sweden and Finland due to …
• TEAMING UP 4 FORESTS released a comprehensive study on Europe’s wood supply amid disruptions, emphasizing the significant impact of climate change, political uncertainties, and a fragmented forest landscape on wood availability. The free study is available at the following link…
• The German Federal Statistical Office stated that logging activities decreased by …
• Market forecasts by EUROCONSTRUCT indicate varied prospects for the residential building sector across Europe. It forecasts a decline in 2024 of … 
• Industry players recently reported an increase in timber usage for new building projects, with a growing trend towards construction using predominantly timber. Glulam is seeing steady growth and Central European manufacturers report satisfactory capacity utilization, with current lead times for standard products averaging …
• It was reported that particleboard and MDF/HDF prices in Central Europe have …
• Despite some improvement in Central European sales markets, the duty-free quota for softwood plywood imports into the EU-27 is still being utilized slowly, with only …
• New formaldehyde regulations will be implemented in the EU from 6 August 2026, following the adoption of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/1464 by the European Commission. This regulation introduces a unified limit for formaldehyde emissions across Europe, measured via chamber testing. The CETPC TG REACH working group has issued a position paper – it is available at the following link …

Russia

• According to Rosstat, Russia’s sawn softwood production in 2023 was …
• Pulp production in Russia in 2023 was… .
• Vladimir Putin plans to boost annual shipping capacity on Russia’s two longest railroads, the Trans-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Mainline, to 210 million tons by …
• From February 2024, Russian sawmill and pulp and paper players started to complain about the capability of the Russian Railway to move finished goods on the agreed time to China. Shipment of goods via the port of St.Petersburg …

North America

• US housing trends slowed considerably in March 2024…
• US softwood lumber production for 2023 was lower by 1.2% (to 37.4 billion BF; 59.6 million m3, net) as compared to 2022. US West lumber production was lower by …
• US softwood lumber imports were lower by 5.9% in 2023, partly due to soft prices. Imports from Canada were down by … 
• Canada’s lumber output was lower by 6.0% (20.1 billion BF; 32.0 million m3, net) in 2023 vs. 2022. BC production was down by a whopping …
• Canadian softwood lumber exports through the first two months of 2024 were 2.18 billion BF, an increase of …
• Canadian lumber exports to the US were …
• Exports to Japan were …
• North American lumber output in 2023 totaled 57.5 billion BF, a decline of…
• European imports to the US were much lower through the first two months of 2024 as compared to the previous year by … 
• North American lumber prices in the first 15 weeks of 2024 are showing an extremely wide range that is quite unprecedented. The 15-week average price in 2024 for the benchmark W-SPF 2×4 #2&Better, random lengths (FOB BC mill) was …
• Pacific Northwest Douglas-fir average log prices declined in Q1 2024 through February. Prices were …
• US Q1 2024 and early Q2 large timberland transactions were seasonally quiet, with few packages closing and little in progress or on offer. Some transaction details were reported, including …
• Other transactions were pending or awaiting results such as …
• Other content includes reports from: South America, Brazil, Uruguay, and Africa

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Many of these topics will be front and centre with a network of international speakers and delegates at the GLOBAL WOOD SUMMIT in Vancouver held between Oct 28 and 30, 2024.

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Russ Taylor President RUSS TAYLOR GLOBAL – Wood Business & Market Consulting
Vancouver BC Canada
russtaylor@russtaylorglobal.com
www.russtaylorglobal.com
Mobile: +1 604 897 5666