For Canadian lumber producers, US market access restrictions are a long-term reality. We expect increasing duty rates plus an incremental tariff will be applied to Canadian lumber imports by the third quarter of 2025 (Q3/25). …Short-term hurdles are notable (demand headwinds, rising US duties, and expected incremental tariffs) but for some companies, we believe that recent valuation contractions discount excessive risk. …A mutual lumber trade agreement between Canada and the US is not expected in the near- to medium-term but is more likely in five years. …We include an incremental US 25% tariff applied to Canadian lumber imports (Section 232 investigation) starting Q3/25 in addition to cumulative countervailing duties (CVD)/anti-dumping duties (ADD) collection rates expected to rise to almost 35% for most sawmills by mid-Q3/25. For the average Canadian sawmill, we estimate that Canadian lumber prices would need to rise 30% from current levels to pass on the increase to duty deposit rates plus the incremental tariff to customers.