Interest rate cuts will be the story of 2024 — what that means for mortgages and more

By Ted Rechtshaffen
Financial Post
December 27, 2023
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada

The Bank of Canada overnight rate started 2023 at 4.25 per cent and will finish the year at five per cent, for a rise of 0.75 per cent after a rise of four per cent in 2022. I believe we will see a two per cent decline in rates by the end of 2024, back to an overnight rate of three per cent. The impacts of this decline will be the story of 2024. Just for fun and to really stick my neck out there, here is my detailed prediction for the central bank’s moves in 2024: Jan. 24: no rate change; March 6: no rate change; April 10: 25-basis-point (bps) drop; June 5: 50 bps drop; July 24: 50 bps drop; Sept. 4: 25 bps drop; Oct. 23: 25 bps drop; and Dec. 11: 25 bps drop. …In summary, I see five-year variable rate mortgages coming down 2.3 per cent over the year, three-year fixed-rate mortgages dropping by 1.1 per cent and five-year fixed-rate mortgages falling 1.2 per cent by year-end.

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