Lumber and OSB prices rebound after several consecutive weeks of declines

By Paul Quinn, RBC Equity Analyst
RBC Capital Markets
May 2, 2022
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Lumber and OSB prices rebound after several consecutive weeks of declines – According to Random Lengths (“RL”), the Framing Lumber Composite increased $26 w/w to $959 as lumber prices turned positive for the first time in six weeks. In OSB markets, the OSB Composite increased by $43 w/w to $839, as OSB prices also turned positive after appearing to reach a bottom last week. We expect both lumber and OSB prices to move higher over the next 6-8 weeks.

Stora Enso divests Russian sawmills and forest operations. After announcing in early March that it would stop all production and sales in Russia until further notice, Stora Enso announced on Monday that it would divest its two Russian sawmills (located in Novgorod and Karelia) to local management, with the transaction expected to close in Q2/22. The company stated that it is also “in a process to find a sustainable solution for the future of its three packaging plants in Russia.”

British Columbia more than doubles forestry revenue sharing with First Nations. The province of British Columbia announced that it will more than double the forestry revenues it shares with First Nations as part of its efforts to co-develop a new forestry revenue-sharing model. The move should increase the amount shared with First Nations by $63 million this year. The province expects that engagement on developing a new revenue-sharing model will take at least two years, with the interim enhancement in place until the model is finalized.

Suzano hikes pulp prices. According to RISI, Suzano will hike BEK pulp prices for European customers by $50 per tonne beginning in May, with prices in North America increasing $60 per tonne. The company will also increase its fluff pulp prices globally by $80 per tonne in May.

Canadian rail earnings highlight expected improvements in operating performance. Canadian National Railway (“CNR”) and Canadian Pacific (“CP”) reported earnings this week for Q122, a quarter in which the Canadian paper and forest products industry was negatively affected by rail and other logistics disruptions. Both companies are messaging stronger performance in Q222 and 2H22, noting expected improvements in operating conditions. CNR and CP are covered by RBC Capital Markets analyst Walter Spracklin; to access his Q1 notes on CNR and CP please click here and click here, respectively.

Wood Products Primer. We recently released the 11th edition of our primer, which should be useful to investors who are unfamiliar with wood products or who wish to refresh their knowledge base. The primer examines the fundamentals of the North American and European lumber markets, and the North American OSB, plywood, and engineered wood products markets.

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