Lumber: Can Wood Prices Rally in Spring 2024?

By Andrew Hecht
February 27, 2024
Category: Finance & Economics
Region: Canada, United States

Physical lumber futures have been making higher lows since early 2023. The three-year chart of nearby physical lumber futures shows the bullish price pattern since early last year when the price reached a $400 per 1,000 board feet bottom. The price reached its most recent $581 high in late January and was over the $560 level in late February as the spring approaches. Construction activity tends to increase after winter. …Lumber futures tend to peak in spring and early summer each year. …If pent-up demand in the housing market despite higher mortgage rates leads to more lumber demand, lumber futures, and the WOOD ETF could move higher over the coming weeks and months. …I believe the current environment limits lumber’s downside. At the same time, the price action over the past years suggests the upside could become explosive when the Fed finally cuts rates, increasing the addressable market for home buyers.

Read More