The third panel of the 2025 COFI Convention focused on navigating global markets and maintaining competitiveness in the face of challenges. Russ Taylor, President of Russ Taylor Global, opened the session by addressing the disruptions in global markets, particularly with the US trade relationship under President Donald Trump. “We dodged a bullet yesterday, but it’s still on the table,” Taylor remarked, referring to the ongoing uncertainty about tariffs. He emphasized the importance of exploring how the Canadian forestry sector could respond to trade challenges, especially as the industry remains heavily reliant on the US market. Taylor also pointed out the EU’s new regulations and other disruptions that could impact the forestry sector.

Mark Cameron, Fellow & Lead of Canada-US Relations Strategy at the Public Policy Forum, addressed the current state of US-Canada trade relations and the threat of tariffs on Canadian lumber. While Canada was exempted from new tariffs in the recent announcements, Cameron explained that the looming threat of 25% duties on lumber remains a concern. He elaborated on the broader impact of US tariffs, mentioning that the US administration’s formula-driven approach to tariffs—based on trade deficits and export volume—has resulted in significant market disruptions. “We could see 25% additional tariffs on lumber if these policies persist,” Cameron warned. He also pointed to the need for Canada to diversify its markets, particularly as the US becomes less reliable as a long-term trading partner.

Kate Lindsay, Senior Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer at the Forest Products Association of Canada, followed by discussing the European Union’s new regulation—the EUDR—that will be implemented in December 2025. This regulation is designed to prevent deforestation linked to the import of agricultural and forest products, including lumber. “This regulation is much broader in scope and will require that every product sold into the EU market demonstrate that it did not lead to deforestation or forest degradation,” Lindsay said. She acknowledged that the EU market is not currently a significant destination for Canadian lumber, but pointed out the interconnectedness of global supply chains. “Even if our products are not directly exported to the EU, they may pass through intermediary markets,” she explained. Lindsay also noted that Canada’s strong track record in forest certification and sustainability will help the country meet the EUDR’s requirements, but more work will be needed to ensure compliance across the supply chain.

Next, Sean Lawler, Managing Director of Canada Wood Japan, provided insights into the state of the Japanese market, focusing on the challenges and opportunities for BC’s forest products in the region. He explained that Japan’s housing market has been experiencing slow growth, with a shrinking population leading to reduced demand for single-family homes. “Japan is losing about half a million people a year, and that’s affecting housing demand,” Lawler said. However, he highlighted growth in the multifamily housing sector, which has seen a projected 17% increase by 2028. “Multifamily housing is where we see the most potential for BC products,” Lawler noted, citing an increase in two-by-four housing starts in Japan. He also discussed the competition from European and domestic Japanese products, particularly in the post-and-beam segment. “Europe has gained market share in Japan, and Japan itself is becoming a stronger competitor,” he said. He suggested that BC could regain some of its market share by focusing on engineered wood products, which are increasingly used in post-and-beam construction. “We need to improve our competitiveness in engineered wood to claw back market share,” he emphasized.

When the discussion turned to broader market dynamics, several points were raised in response to questions from the audience about global competition and BC’s strategies. Mark Cameron noted that Russia’s geopolitical situation has created significant uncertainty in global lumber markets. “Russia’s future in the lumber market is unclear, and this adds to the instability we are already seeing in markets like China and Europe,” Cameron remarked. He noted that the ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Ukraine, could further disrupt supply chains and trade flows, potentially affecting global competition for BC.

Kate Lindsay echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of BC being adaptable to the changing landscape of global regulations. “We need to continue leveraging our sustainability credentials in emerging markets,” Lindsay said. “Canada is in a strong position, but we must adapt to new regulations and market demands.”

Another topic raised was the need for a strategic approach to managing fiber supply. Mark Cameron emphasized that securing fiber to support mill operations is essential for the province’s long-term competitiveness. “We need to focus on industrial strategies and ensure that we have the fiber supply to support mill operations,” Cameron said. 

Sean Lawler concluded by noting that while Japan presents ongoing challenges, there are still significant opportunities to be tapped, particularly in mid-rise and non-residential construction. “We need to be adaptable and continue to work on making BC products more competitive in these emerging sectors,” he said.

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